Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- Several NBA awards for the upcoming season hinge on players stepping into expanded roles and maintaining health.
- The Spurs' dominant defensive presence is expected to influence both MVP and Defensive Player of the Year voting.
- One coach’s long-overdue recognition could finally align with his team’s championship-contending roster this season.
LeBron James and Jaylen Brown are Sixers. LaMelo Ball is a Timberwolf. Giannis Antetokounmpo is a Heat. Ja Morant is a Trail Blazer. So much has happened over the past couple months in the NBA, a league that truly never sleeps. As things quiet down ahead of training camp in October, however, let's take our best stab at award predictions for the upcoming campaign.
There are so many unknown or unknowable variables when rendering predictions this far in advance. That said, we know the league is super talented, and which know which teams — on paper — are built to meet the moment. As for the individual players, well, let's dive in.
MVP: Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs
Victor Wembanyama settled into his villain arc quite nicely during the Spurs' Finals run, which ended in a swift gentleman's sweep to New York. The 22-year-old is both corny and self-serious. His tempare can flare up. He's like any young person, really. Wemby should be a senior in college writing his thesis on Buddhist monks, but instead he's training with them while shouldering an increasingly large target on his back.
There has not been a more obvious basketball prodigy to enter the league since LeBron. It feels like the moment for Wemby's MVP leap has arrived. He finished third in MVP voting last season, still on his rookie contract. MVP voters tend to value offensive production over defensive production, but Wemby alters the geometry of the floor as a defender unlike anyone in league history. He's one of one.
It's not like he can't score either. Wemby put up 25.0 points and 3.1 assists last season on .512/.349/.827 splits. He is still learning to leverage his immense physical gifts to establish position on the interior and create efficient offense for himself, rather than relying too heavily on mid-range fallaways and tough 3s. As Wemby continues to fine-tune his skill set, however, that 8-foot wingspan and unreasonably bendy, dynamic handle is going to become far too much for opponents to contain on a nightly basis.
There are health concerns with Wemby, simply by virtue of being 7-foot-4 and moving, bending and leaping as often as he does. But Wemby has also made it his life's goal to maximize his flexibility and durability. If he reaches the 65-game mark, there's a good chance this is his year. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander would need to clear a high bar to become the first player since Larry Bird to win three straight MVP awards — a bar even Nikola Jokić, his MVP predecessor, could not clear.
Other shouts: Nikola Jokić, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Defensive Player of the Year: Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs
Wemby is as close to a guaranteed DPOY winner as you can get, assuming he reaches the 65-game mark. He led the NBA in blocks per game (3.1) last season, which he has now done every season since entering the league. His remarkable steal (1.5 STL%) and block (5.1 BLK%) rates drive winning impact; the Spurs' defense was 12.3 points per 100 possessions better with Wemby on the floor last season, a 99th-percentile swing, per Cleaning the Glass.
He just completely changes the game plan for opponents — fewer paint touches and nonexistent passing lanes, with the unique ability to switch out on the perimeter and guard in space with a preposterous 8-foot wingspan. Wemby amplifies opposing mistakes and crushes their margin for error. There are other great defenders in this league, but none who warp the floor around them like Wembanyama.
Other shouts: Chet Holmgren, Bam Adebayo
Rookie of the Year: Cameron Boozer, Memphis Grizzlies
There will be no shortage of competition for this award, as fellow top picks AJ Dybantsa and Darryn Peterson will receive every opportunity to put up points and maybe even compete for a playoff spot. At the end of the day, however, Cameron Boozer was my No. 1 prospect all year, and he shouldn't need long to translate to the NBA what made him so special at Duke.
Boozer is the youngest player in the league, but he has the IQ, processing speed and poise of a 10-year vet. He put together the most dominant freshman campaign since Zion Williamson, surgically dismantling opponents with a blend of brute strength, three-level skill and mental mastery. Boozer dominated in so many different play types at Duke. He can spot up and attack closeouts. He can handle the rock in pick-and-rolls. He can set the screen, roll and rip passes to all corners of the floor. He's a tremendous post scorer, but contrary to popular belief, the skill set ranges far beyond that. He even flashed some mid-range shooting in Summer League, which is a huge step.
If Boozer lives up to his reputation as a day-one winner, the Grizzlies are probably going to surprise some folks. Zach Edey is coming back, which will raise their floor on defense and give Memphis two walking interior mismatches in the frontcourt. A Cedric Coward leap, plus some underrated guard play from the likes of Ty Jerome or Cam Spencer, and suddenly the Grizzlies aren't the cakewalk they were this past season.
Other shouts: Darryn Peterson, AJ Dybantsa
Sixth Man of the Year: Ajay Mitchell, Oklahoma City Thunder
Ajay Mitchell probably would've won — or at least been more seriously in the mix for — Sixth Man of the Year honors last season had he not missed so much time to injury. Those health concerns won't disappear overnight, but Mitchell would start on the vast majority of NBA teams. He's a hellacious slasher with incredible speed, balance and touch attacking the rim. It helps that he defends like hell, too. OKC was 8.2 points per 100 possessions better with Mitchell on the floor last season.
Keldon Johnson, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Tim Hardaway Jr. and Naz Reid are the four players who finished ahead of Mitchell in 6MOY voting this past go-around. Jaquez, Hardaway and Reid could all start for their new teams. Johnson, with all due respect, isn't even the best bench player on his own team.
In fact, Dylan Harper is probably the "best" bench player in the NBA, however you want to define "best." At some point, the Spurs will need to figure out how to start the former No. 2 overall pick, even if it means running three-guard lineups with Fox and Castle. If Harper does not graduate to the starting lineup, however, he'd probably get my vote here. So consider me split.
Other shouts: Dylan Harper, Collin Murray-Boyles
Most Improved Player: Naz Reid, Charlotte Hornets
While we can expect major leaps from Cooper Flagg, Collin Murray-Boyles and some of the second-year guys, there appears to be an unofficial rule against rewarding "natural" progress. Instead, the NBA media typically likes an established player who finds a new gear, a la Nickeil Alexander-Walker this past season.
How about another (now) former Timberwolf in Naz Reid, who was shipped to Charlotte as part of the LaMelo Ball trade. Reid has won a Sixth Man of the Year award already. He was essential to Minnesota's success in recent years, but now he takes on an outsized role in Charlotte.
The Hornets are totally overhauling their offensive processes without LaMelo, who was the lifeblood behind the most explosive scoring team in the NBA. Brandon Miller and Kon Knueppel will scale up their usage, of course. Coby White takes over point guard duties. But Charlotte does not really have a natural table-setter, aside from rookie Christian Anderson, who probably won't play much out of the gate.
Enter Reid, who was drafted out of LSU as a funky, playmaking five man. He did some of that in Minnesota, able to grab-and-go in transition or occasionally break out a deceptive dribble package in the halfcourt. He's a real passer, and with more on-ball usage should come across ample opportunities to raise his profile with the new-look Hornets.
Trading LaMelo still feels like a misstep, but if Reid can level up and take on a central role in the Hornets' offense, he could quickly ease the sting of that loss.
Other shouts: Brandon Miller, Matas Buzelis
Coach of the Year: Erik Spoelstra
Joe Mazzulla could build a nice case for himself if the Celtics don't skip a beat after the Jaylen Brown trade, but back-to-back Coach of the Year victories are exceedingly rare. If Nick Nurse can bring all of the Sixers' new firepower together in year one, he will have an exceptionally strong case. If the Knicks cruise to the No. 1 seed after winning a championship, Mike Brown may retroactively be rewarded for the job he has done. But that would be Brown's second COTY award in a five-year span and his third total.
At the end of the day, there is no more difficult award to predict than Coach of the Year, which is so dependent on narrative and team performance rather than individual greatness and situation. The fact that Erik Spoelstra has somehow never won this award, however, is utterly baffling. They talk about "it's time" Oscars for great actors who win the Academy Award long after their actual best performances. Spo could receive a similar nod from the NBA awards voters this season.
This will, of course, require Giannis staying healthy and available. If he does, the Heat will destroy teams on defense and probably find enough offense by virtue of peppering the court with shooters while Antetokounmpo and Adebayo take turns attacking the paint. Nobody gets more out of mismatched rosters than Spo, and it's been a while since he had a superstar of Giannis' caliber under his command. So, let's give him some early love.
Other shouts: Jordi Fernandez, Nick Nurse
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