Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- College basketball's talent pool has never been deeper due to NIL changes and international influx.
- Purdue and Gonzaga each have a towering junior ready to transform their frontcourts with elite defensive skills.
- St. John's new era under Pitino hinges on a rangy big man whose breakout season could redefine the program's defensive identity.
We are in a new age of college basketball. NIL has turned the transfer portal into an all-out frenzy. It has also dramatically changed the NBA Draft, encouraging even guaranteed first-round picks, like Florida's Thomas Haugh and UConn's Braylon Mullins, to stay in school an extra year.
There has also been a massive influx of international players coming stateside and joining the college ranks. In short: the talent pool has arguably never been this deep. Here are a few breakout candidates who demand your attention as we gear up for what promises to be an exciting campaign:
Daniel Jacobsen, Purdue Boilermakers
The Daniel Jacobsen sales pitch is pretty easy: he's 7-foot-4 and he's expected to take on starting minutes as a junior, under a coach in Matt Painter who has consistently developed the best centers in college basketball. Zach Edey, Oscar Cluff — now Jacobsen.
Jacobsen is already an elite shot-blocker (11.4 BLK%), able to blot out the sun for opponents hoping to score on the interior. There are certain undeniable benefits to being Jacobsen's size with even semi-functional mobility. And he's fluid, with strong anticipation skills.
Adding muscle to his frame is a critical next step, but Jacobsen finishes effectively above the rim. He high-points rebounds on both ends and embraces the dirty work necessities of his position. He is not particularly advanced as a post scorer or passer, but Jacobsen also does not overextend himself. He keeps a lid on turnovers, he flashes touch in the mid-range (and even hit 3-of-8 from deep last season).
There is a very simple path to extreme two-way impact on a Purdue team that's never far from contention.
Davis Fogle, Gonzaga Bulldogs
Davis Fogle was extremely impactful in limited minutes off the bench for Gonzaga as a freshman. He should start and blossom into possibility their best player as a sophomore.
Like so many young players, Fogle would benefit from more functional strength. But he's incredibly sharp as a processor on both ends. He does not need the ball in his hands to make an impact either. Fogle displays great timing as a cutter, finishing 67.9 percent of his attempts at the rim last season. His 3-point shot looks pure and he should ramp up the volume without issue. He can attack closeouts and stick mid-range pull-ups with a gorgeous high release.
Fogle was incredibly secure with the basketball as a freshman (9.9 TO%). We shall see how he handles more substantial usage, but Fogle has a knack for moving the ball quickly and playing decisively, a strong indicator of his advanced feel.
He also gets into a lot of unwanted spaces on defense, with excellent stock numbers (3.4 BLK%, 2.4 STL%). That promotes transition offense, where Fogle really shines. He sprints the floor hard and has great body control on full-speed finishes.
Gonzaga fans should prepare for a full-scale breakthrough, as Fogle has all the indicators of a high-imact, two-way wing who can thrive in almost any context.
Rubén Prey, St. John's Red Storm
St. John's will look very different next season after losing seniors Zuby Ejiofor, Bryce Hopkins and Dillon Mitchell to the NBA. But Rick Pitino hit the portal hard and made several standout additions, chief among them a very talented scoring wing in Tounde Yessoufou.
The real breakout candidate, however, is junior forward Rubén Prey. An analytics darling even in extremely limited minutes last season, Prey popped up on a lot of radars when he shot 4-of-4 from deep in the Johnnies' Sweet 16 loss to Duke. He now has a chance to anchor the Red Storm defense and rapidly increase both his usage and his impact. Pitino is still college basketball's top defensive mastermind. Prey projects as the linchpin, the anchor point, of St. John's scheme next season.
Prey will need to display rapid growth in a few key areas. He's a savvy off-ball mover and a decent connective passer, but he really struggles to operate with physicality on the interior. His rim finishing (55.8 percent) at 6-foot-10, 230 pounds just in not where it needs to be. St. John's will need Prey to translate his athleticism and touch into a functional scoring repertoire. Can he ramp up his 3-point volume over an extended period of time? He's a tremendous offensive rebounder, but putbacks can't be his only consistent contribution offensively.
That said, Prey will drive winning with his defense regardless. He's a rangy shot-blocker (6.6 BLK%) with a sixth sense as a helper. He hammers the glass to end possessions. He can dance out on the perimeter. With so much frontcourt talent exiting the St. John's program, the time has come for Prey to step into a featured role and show what he's made of.
Chance Mallory, Virginia Cavaliers
Chance Mallory was extremely fun in a sixth man role for the Cavs last season, but he should take on primary point guard duties in year two. Virginia is built around a dominant, synergistic frontcourt pairing of Thijs De Ridder and Johann Grünloh, but Mallory will be the spark that lights their offense.
Mallory has deeeeeeep range on his jumper, comfortable sprinting around screens, curling off of DHOs, or firing a pull-up from several steps behind the NBA line. He's quick to attack a defender on their back foot. While he's not a great finisher, Mallory has the strength to absorb contact and carve out driving lanes. He got to the free throw line a bunch as a freshman.
There are natural limitations for any 5-foot-10 guard, but Mallory is a stocky, bullish defender. He sticks like glue at the point of attack, able to get low in his stance and leverage his strength to hold the line on drives. He's also incredibly active in passing lanes (4.0 STL%), with an exceptionally sharp nose for the basketball.
Mallory is easy to write off because of his size, but few guards in college basketball ooze more confidence. He's a smart, low-turnover facilitator. He can work effectively off-ball. There's a counter for everything the defense throws at him and he contributes on both ends of the floor. Expect a big season from Virginia's dynamo.
Najai Hines, UConn Huskies
Nikolas Khamenia is another UConn transfer worth spotlighting here. His role was limited at Duke as a freshman, but Khamenia's shooting and playmaking feel at 6-foot-8 should shine in Dan Hurley's system.
That said, the obvious breakout candidate for the Huskies is sophomore center Najai Hines, who comes over from Seton Hall to replace the outgoing Tarris Reed. Hines was already a singularly dominant rim protector as a 19-year-old off the Pirates bench. He posted the second-highest block rate (16.3 BLK%) in college basketball last season. He led the Big East with 2.2 blocks per game... in 18.0 minutes.
Hurley has a strong track record of developing his big men. Donovan Clingan popped unexpectedly as a freshman. Reed grew so much in just two years with the program. Now comes Hines, who is the best deterrent Hurley has worked with — listed 6-foot-10, 265 pounds with long arms and an appetite for brute force. He's a power finisher at the rim. An elite rebounder. He should compete for every defensive accolade.
He is not particularly robust in his offensive contributions — Hines passes at an extremely low volume and he's a non-factor on the perimeter — but even if he's a simple screen-setter and rim-runner, Hines is so clearly on a breakout trajectory. He has a chance to anchor an elite UConn defense and emerge as one of the most impactful centers in all of college basketball, with the NBA not far on the horizon.
More CBB news and analysis:
Add us as a preferred source on Google