Christian McCaffrey was universally viewed as a top fantasy pick this offseason, even if some people tried to warn us that there were some warning signs that needed to be heeded. One game into the San Francisco 49ers season and we're seeing some of that play out, as McCaffrey definitely doesn't have the usage edge that we might have expected.
Kyle Shanahan seems to be prioritizing keeping McCaffrey healthy. That's great news for a 49ers team that just dominated the Rams, but it's kind of the worst nightmare for fantasy managers.
Christian McCaffrey's fantasy value is dropping
McCaffrey's injury history should have been factored in more leading up to this season. While I'm not normally one to zero in on injury history as a concern, McCaffrey seems like an exception to that rule. If the vibes around his health feel off, we should listen.
That's not to say he's not still one of the league's best running backs. While he didn't dominate the backfield touches on Thursday night, he still did plenty of great work, averaging 6.8 yards per carry and having 18 total opportunities when adding up his carries and targets.
With that said, Kaelon Black saw 14 carries, and while McCaffrey was better on a per-touch basis, Black's usage is certainly notable. I'm not going to hit the panic button yet — are you really going to sell low on McCaffrey after one game? — but if I have McCaffrey on my roster, I might be hoping extra hard to get someone else breaking out, and I might devote my last bench spot to an upside play at running back, just to maybe add some variance to my roster.
Is Kaelon Black worth adding in Week 2 fantasy football waivers?
So, if you're rostering McCaffrey, you're holding McCaffrey and feeling slightly worse about it. That's really all there is to do for now: wait and hope the talent wins out, even if Shanahan is limiting touches to keep him fresh.
But what about Kaelon Black? He's out there on waivers in a lot of leagues — just 35 percent rostered on Sleeper, for example. Should you pick him up in fantasy after he finished Thursday's game with 14 carries for 65 yards? Sure, in a 12-team league, but I'd temper expectations.
While Black is going to siphon off some early-down work, McCaffrey is still a far better player, which means that even with his touches limited, there's a ceiling on what Black can do. That ceiling probably looks, statisically, a lot like Thursday night but with a rushing touchdown added to the stat sheet. Valuable player who should be rostered and can be flexed if needed, but ultimately his fantasy importance is less about his play and more about how he impacts McCaffrey's play.
(With that said, he'd obviously skyrocket in value if McCaffrey misses any time this season. That's another mark in the "go ahead and add him off the wire" column. If you need running back help, you might as well. Not super exciting at the moment, but there's appeal.)
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