There are still some quality free agents yet to sign with clubs, and there will be several more significant trades in the NFL before Week 1. But let’s be honest: The bulk of these rosters are set.
Everyone, including folks in NFL team headquarters, has had ample time to digest the schedule. Injuries will invariably play a massive role. But as things stand, some teams are poised to meet or exceed expectations, while others look likely to fall short, both in the eyes of their fanbases and the sportsbooks that have set their win totals.
This is one of the best times of year to find value in NFL futures. Standard season win totals often don't offer much return considering your money is tied up until January. And in a league where six new teams on average make the playoffs each year, and when the gap between winning and quasi-tanking teams is wider, alternative win-total markets can be worth exploring.
Here’s what stands out to us after spending the past few weeks projecting the season with execs and scouts.
Detroit Lions
- Under 9.5 wins (+170, FanDuel)
Brain drain is a real thing in the NFL. The Lions suffered greatly from an exodus of coaches one year ago, and it resulted in the worst season of the Dan Campbell era. It didn’t surprise us or any of the sources we regularly speak with. And those same men are not sold on this year’s group, either. Under 9.5 wins seems likely.
Will Jared Goff ever be the same without Ben Johnson as his sensei? “I think we’ve seen the best of Goff, and it’s not coming back,” said one general manager, who believes Goff’s lack of mobility will be a growing issue. Another GM believes their pass rush will again lack depth and bite beyond Aiden Hutchinson. “I think they missed their window,” he said.
No one I spoke with believed the Lions are heading back to the dark ages by any stretch, but that loss at San Francisco in 2023 might haunt them for a long time. The NFC North has become a sexy division, the Vikings should be better, the Packers are still solid, and people I trust are quite bullish on the Bears, who, you know, have Ben Johnson …
Chicago Bears
- Over 9.5 wins (+115)
They won’t let you parlay this with the above bet, for obvious reasons, and of course they are correlated. Too many people I trust believe Johnson was the secret sauce with the Lions turnaround from a schematic standpoint, and some wouldn’t be shocked at all if he has QB Caleb Williams in the MVP conversation in his second year of work with him.
“Jason, this is going to be a generational coach,” said one longtime GM who has championed Johnson with me since early in his Lions days. “After what he accomplished with this group last year, I'm telling you, they’re going to pick up where they left off.”
That’s not always the case in this league, and we’ve seen the Commanders and Texans fail to build on breakthrough seasons in recent years. But the infrastructure should actually be better this season, making over 9.5 wins the pick. “It’s a better offensive line now,” the first GM said, and we suspect the defense makes strides as well.
New England Patriots
- Under 8.5 wins (+190)
We already laid out myriad football reasons why NFL execs believe the Patriots are in for a significant falloff in 2026 . But what about the elephant in the room with Mike Vrabel?
Surely, ownership must be waiting for more to drop about their head coach and his affair with a prominent former NFL reporter. And there is the inevitable regression that comes for a team that loses the Super Bowl. Heck, Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes were even caught up in that.
There is not overwhelming blue chip talent both rushing the passer and preventing others from menacing MVP-candidate QB Drake Maye. That tends to loom large, especially when facing a vastly more difficult schedule.
Arizona Cardinals
- Under 3.5 wins (+135)
If there is one team that truly has the air of tanking, it’s the Cardinals. League sources indicated over the weekend that the rift between them and QB Jacoby Brissett, who has an outstanding season for them a year ago, shows no signs of subsiding. And a rookie head coach has to manage this for a franchise that has notoriously frugal and ineffective ownership.
Does anyone out there think this franchise is all about winning as many football games as possible, or are eyes already on the 2027 draft class? And if you think taking Carson Beck in the third-round matters, recall these owners took Josh Rosen 10th overall not that long ago and then grabbed Kyler Murray with the first-overall pick a year later.
The Cardinals play in what should be the toughest division in football, which is why under 3.5 wins seems more reasonable. They have serious offensive line and defensive line issues and if you think drafting a running back in the top five is going to solve that, I’d point you directly at the 2025 Raiders … who ended up with the first-overall selection to use on a QB.
Cincinatti Bengals
- Over 10.5 wins (+120)
The AFC North will come down to the two games between the Ravens and Bengals. In years past, the Ravens have benefitted from getting the home end on a Thursday in prime time, often with Joe Burrow dealing with injury or just returning from injury. Not so this year.
And it’s the Bengals who get to host the Ravens in prime time. Everyone else in this division has a rookie head coach at the helm. The Bengals' upgrades to their defense appear significant. “They are the team to beat in that division,” the second GM said.
Burrow thrives in 1 p.m. ET starts, and he gets a run of seven straight to start the season. And perhaps most importantly of all, Burrow is all-in on this roster, calling it the best since he’s been there. And lest you forget he went to one Super Bowl and nearly got back the following year.
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