NFL standings and playoff bracket entering Week 5: Which division leaders are legit?

It's much too early in the NFL season to confidently project the Super Bowl champion, much less the entire postseason field. That said, we are reaching a point where the sample size is large enough to start extrapolating the data. Every win counts in the NFL with so few games on the schedule. Historically, early holes are hard to dig out of.

Let's break down the standings in each division and take an early look at how the postseason bracket would shape up if the season ended today.

AFC East standings

It turns out the demise of Drake Maye and the Patriots was greatly exaggerated; who knew writing off an MVP runner-up after three weeks may have been ill-advised? New England's win in Buffalo in Week 4 also shined a harsh light on a vulnerable Bills defense, one that Josh Allen might not even be able to overcome. These two teams figure to go back and forth atop this division all year long, while the Jets slowly slide back toward the bottom and the Dolphins ... well, the less said about Miami the better.

Division leader confidence level: 6/10

Having Allen at quarterback will always give you a chance, and gun to my head, I'd still pick the Bills to win the East this year. The Patriots sure seemed to figure things out on Sunday, though, and a leg up in the season series is always helpful in the event of a tiebreaker. If Buffalo can't figure things out on the back end, they could be in trouble.

AFC North standings

Yes, you read that right: Your Cleveland Browns are currently atop the AFC North after upsetting the Steelers on Thursday night. Deshaun Watson is somehow reborn under Todd Monken, while a young defense is flying around and doing just enough to win games on a weekly basis. Baltimore is humming in year one under Jesse Minter, but it's awfully hard to trust either Pittsburgh or Cincinnati at the moment given their early-season inconsistencies.

Division leader confidence level: 1/10

I really don't mean this as a slight! Cleveland has opened a ton of eyes early this year, and it would hardly be a shock if they were in the Wild Card hunt until the very end of this season. This has more to do with my confidence in the Ravens, even with Lamar Jackson now nursing an ankle injury. Derrick Henry and Co. can keep Baltimore afloat for a week or two, and this offense is just so explosive with a new, modern scheme in town. It'll be hard for the Browns to keep up as long as Jackson's in the lineup.

AFC South standings

In a word: yikes. The Colts only got back to .500 by virtue of beating a Commanders team that was down to QB3 in London. Indy hardly inspires confidence, especially with Daniel Jones as scattershot as ever. The Titans are still trying to figure out whether Cam Ward can be salvaged. And Houston? What we thought might be a historically awesome defense blew another late lead against the Cowboys on Sunday to fall to 0-4. Jacksonville, on the other hand, just keeps on keeping on, with an impressive defense boosting an offense that's finally figured out how to stay out of its own way.

Division leader confidence level: 9/10

I mean, duh. The only viable competition here entering the season figured to be the Texans, and even if they turn things around moving forward — don't count Demeco Ryans out yet — an 0-4 hole figures to be too much to climb out of for divisional purposes. This race might be over by November, if it's not already.

AFC West standings

The Chiefs outlasted the suddenly very frisky Raiders in Vegas on Sunday, as the Kenneth Walker III experience continues to play like gangbusters. That figures to loom large in the AFC West standings moving forward, especially as the other two teams that were expected to give Kansas City a run for its money this year are having a hard time getting out of first gear. Denver's offense is at sea without Sean Payton at the controls, while the Chargers can't do much of anything right at the moment.

Division leader confidence level: 7/10

Klint Kubiak really does have the Raiders cooking, to the point they might be the smart pick to finish second in this division and compete for a Wild Card spot. But while Vegas has impressed early, and while I do think Denver will get better as the season goes along, this does feel like once again the Chiefs' division to lose. I just cannot trust Bo Nix with the way he's playing right now, and I still think the Raiders don't have the horses defensively to win the 11 or 12 games they'll need.

AFC playoff bracket entering Week 5

NFC East standings

Do not adjust your television sets: The New York Football Giants are in sole control of the NFC East for the first time since 2015. Granted, they've done so on the backs of two very nervy wins over bottom-feeders in the Titans and Cardinals, but hey, baby steps in year one under John Harbaugh. And the rest of this division is a bit of a mess right now, with the Cowboys having to win shootouts on a weekly basis while the Eagles and Commanders are MASH units.

Division leader confidence level: 2/10

I'm sorry, I'll believe it when I see it — or when New York beats a team with a pulse without Jaxson Dart. The schedule will ramp up considerably from here, and while Dallas' defense leaves much to be desired, Dak Prescott and the gang should be good for a winning record at the very least when all is said and done. I have a hard time imagining the Giants doing the same unless JJ McCarthy is suddenly ready to be a viable starting quarterback in the NFL.

NFC North standings

The Vikings don't feel like they should be one of only three remaining unbeatens in the NFL right now, and yet, here we are. Minnesota is still waiting for Kyler Murray to settle in — and for Justin Jefferson to get healthy — but through Brian Flores all things are possible, especially when the rest of the NFC North is in various degrees of dire straits. The Lions can't defend, the Packers can't get out of their own way and the Bears are still without Caleb Williams. Still, all three of those teams have real upside cases to be made moving forward.

Division leader confidence level: 4/10

Which is why I can't place too much faith in the Vikings right now. Williams should be back sooner than later, and there's always the possibility that either Detroit or Green Bay gets hot. Then again, Flores' defense should have Minnesota at least in the game on a weekly basis, and the rest of this division all comes with glaring question marks. It wouldn't be a huge shock if the Vikings manage to grit their way to another division crown.

NFC South standings

Is the NFC South ... actually kinda good? Certainly not the Bucs without Baker Mayfield, lord no. But the Panthers put it on the Lions on Sunday night, while the Falcons are apparently unstoppable now that they have baseline competence at quarterback in Michael Penix Jr. Both of these teams feel like more than just token division leaders, and New Orleans' 1-3 record (and miserable performance against the Falcons on Monday night) masks what is still a decent football team that nearly beat both Detroit and Baltimore earlier this year.

Division leader confidence level: 6/10

Carolina's defense does not inspire a ton of confidence. But Dave Canales has something cooking with Bryce Young and Tetairoa McMillan, and that offense is the unit I trust the most in this division right now. The Falcons still have to prove a little more to me before I fully buy in to both Penix Jr. and this revamped defense, though it would hardly be a surprise if they got to the requisite eight or nine wins by season's end.

NFC West standings

Kyle Shanahan, man. San Francisco has had more or less its entire receiving corps get hurt already, and still here the Niners are, rolling along at 4-0 with Brock Purdy playing MVP-caliber football. Seattle is rolling too, though, despite its recent hiccup in Washington, and please do not count the Rams out too early — Matthew Stafford showed in Philly on Sunday that he can still sling it with the best of 'em when he gets it rolling.

Division leader confidence level: 3/10

I am prepared for all the hate you'd like to send my way, San Fran. I promise this isn't a dig! But the Niners have played the Dolphins, the Cardinals and a Broncos team down both starting cornerbacks over the last three weeks, so excuse me if I'm still not ready to definitively say that they're better than the reigning world champs. And that's not even considering the possibility that Los Angeles plays up to its potential. If the Niners wind up atop this division, it'll be Shanahan's greatest coaching feat yet.

NFC playoff bracket entering Week 5

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