Predicting the final NFL standings and playoff picture after just one week of football on our own would be downright ludicrous. Yet, I'm the same pundit who took on that exact same project after just one preseason game, so you're in the right place. Week 1 is notorious for overreactions. I am not immune to that, and neither is the best technology at our disposal.
For those unfamiliar with the Opta supercomputer, consider it one of the best sports projection models available. That does not mean it's correct 100% of the time, or even more often than not. After just one game, every AFC South team is 0-1, the Jets and Giants are 1-0, and the Chiefs look primed for another Super Bowl run. Will any of it come true? Let's find out.
Supercomputer projects the final AFC standings
After one week of action, only one team is projected to win over 10 games in the AFC, which is a sharp pivot from Opta's NFC expectations (but we'll get there). A strong Week 1 from the Cincinnati Bengals has them atop the AFC North division and the conference as a whole. Joe Burrow and Co. were a popular dark horse pick this season. The Bengals defense has, seemingly, gotten better, while Cincinnati finally invested some money in the offensive line to protect their franchise asset. Of course, this is the Bengals. Make that bet at your own risk.
As for the rest of the conference, there aren't many major postseason surprises. However, the projection models do seem to believe in Aaron Glenn's New York Jets after just one win. If the Jets win 8+ games in 2026-27, then Glenn deserves Coach of the Year.
AFC East
TEAM | Projected wins | Projected losses | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|
Patriots | 9.6 | 7.4 | 68.4 |
Bills | 9.04 | 7.96 | 59.3 |
Jets | 8.63 | 8.37 | 47.7 |
Dolphins | 5.33 | 11.67 | 4.3 |
AFC North
TEAM | Projected wins | Projected losses | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|
Bengals | 10.03 | 6.97 | 72.6 |
Ravens | 9.08 | 7.92 | 55.7 |
Steelers | 9.01 | 7.99 | 54.5 |
Browns | 6.8 | 10.2 | 16.6 |
AFC South
TEAM | Projected wins | Projected losses | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|
Jaguars | 9.13 | 7.87 | 58.6 |
Texans | 8.81 | 8.19 | 52.5 |
Colts | 7.68 | 9.32 | 27.5 |
Titans | 7.14 | 9.86 | 21.7 |
AFC West
TEAM | Projected wins | Projected losses | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|
Chiefs | 8.88 | 8.12 | 54.3 |
Chargers | 8.27 | 8.73 | 40.3 |
Broncos | 8.20 | 8.80 | 38.8 |
Raiders | 7.72 | 9.28 | 27.9 |
AFC Playoff Picture
Some things change while others stay the same. Sure, the Bengals as the top-overall seed is a surprise, especially considering they missed the playoffs last season and Trey Hendrickson is in Baltimore now. Meanwhile, the Chiefs return right where they belong, which is atop the AFC West, while the Steelers and 43-year-old Aaron Rodgers nab the No. 7 seed, meaning three AFC North teams could make the playoffs this year.
Seed | Team |
|---|---|
1 | Bengals |
2 | Patriots |
3 | Jaguars |
4 | Chiefs |
5 | Ravens |
6 | Bills |
7 | Steelers |
AFC Wild Card round matchups
- (1) Cincinnati Bengals: BYE
- (2) New England Patriots vs (7) Pittsburgh Steelers
- (3) Jacksonville Jaguars vs (6) Buffalo Bills
- (4) Kansas City Chiefs vs (5) Baltimore Ravens
Supercomputer predicts the final NFC standings
The Lions? Oh yeah, the Lions. Detroit's Super Bowl window may be closing, but if all goes according to plan in 2026-27, they could earn a first-round bye in the NFC Playoffs. Jared Goff and the Lions offense remain a force to be reckoned with, but Detroit will face a stiff test on Thursday Night Football against Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills. We'll learn a lot more about how reliable Opta's projections are after that game.
The needle didn't move much for surprise winners in the NFC, nor should it. This conference is stacked from top-to-bottom, so if a surprise team does emerge, they'll have to knock one of the NFC's favorites down a peg. Last I checked, the Eagles, Rams, Seahawks and 49ers have a lot to play for.
NFC East
TEAM | Projected wins | Projected losses | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|
Eagles | 10.24 | 6.76 | 75.2 |
Cowboys | 8.98 | 8.02 | 47.6 |
Giants | 7.75 | 9.25 | 27.4 |
Commanders | 7.08 | 9.92 | 17 |
NFC North
TEAM | Projected wins | Projected losses | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|
Lions | 10.29 | 6.71 | 72.5 |
Vikings | 8.83 | 8.17 | 39.7 |
Bears | 8.61 | 8.39 | 40.7 |
Packers | 8.37 | 8.64 | 36.8 |
NFC South
TEAM | Projected wins | Projected losses | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|
Saints | 8.3 | 8.7 | 37.8 |
Panthers | 8.12 | 8.88 | 40 |
Buccaneers | 7.91 | 9.09 | 35.8 |
Falcons | 6.65 | 10.35 | 14.5 |
NFC West
TEAM | Projected wins | Projected losses | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|
Rams | 10.17 | 6.83 | 70 |
49ers | 9.76 | 7.24 | 61.6 |
Seahawks | 9.72 | 7.28 | 61.3 |
Cardinals | 7.87 | 9.13 | 23.9 |
NFC Playoff Picture
Say what you will of Week 1, but the Rams went from the overall Super Bowl favorite to third in the NFC, if Opta's projection model is correct. Now, much of that has to do with the spanking they got from the 49ers in Australia and the injury to Myles Garrett. Suddenly, Los Angeles faces an uphill climb, but perhaps they'll grow from this adversity rather than shrink.
Other than the obvious surprise (Lions), the fact that the Cowboys remain in the playoff picture despite a disappointing loss on Sunday night to the Giants is something I did not see coming. That could go down as one of the worst defeats of Dallas' season, and if they don't figure things out soon defensively, the Cowboys may find themselves on the outside looking in.
Seed | Team |
|---|---|
1 | Lions |
2 | Eagles |
3 | Rams |
4 | Saints |
5 | 49ers |
6 | Seahawks |
7 | Cowboys |
NFC Wild Card round matchups
- (1) Detroit Lions: BYE
- (2) Philadelphia Eagles vs (7) Dallas Cowboys
- (3) Los Angeles Rams vs (6) Seattle Seahawks
- (4) New Orleans Saints vs (5) San Francisco 49ers
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