NFL standings and way-too-early playoff bracket: What's most likely to change?

It's much too early in the NFL season to confidently project the Super Bowl champion, much less the entire postseason field. That said, we are reaching a point where the sample size is large enough to start extrapolating the data. Every win counts in the NFL with so few games on the schedule. Historically, early holes are hard to dig out of.

Let's break down the standings in each division and take an early look at how the postseason bracket would shape up if the season ended today.

AFC East standings

There's a sizable gap between the Bills and the rest of the division right now. New England won 14 games a year ago and made it to the Super Bowl, so it's too early to write off the Patriots. That said, Drake Maye's performance through three weeks — which has been decidely not MVP caliber — makes it easy to envision Buffalo running away with things. The Bills offense is going to put up monster numbers as long as Josh Allen is on the field. Their defense leaves major question marks when projecting toward the playoffs, but this team is built to stack wins in the regular season. The Jets are worth shouting out as better than their record and reputation suggests, but it's not like the Jets are going anywhere so soon.

AFC North standings

The AFC North is once again an extremely competitive division, from the look of it. Pittsburgh beat Cincinnati this past Sunday, which was a real "oh s**t" moment — really for both teams, in different ways. Ironically, Cincy's offense has not done enough despite an improved defense. The Steelers probably won't score consistently enough to mount a deep run, but Aaron Rodgers looked more like Aaron Rodgers in Week 3. The Browns appear to be shockingly competent, but a tougher schedule will eventually sidetrack them. My take: Baltimore is the clear best team here, even if the records are all even. Lamar Jackson is playing like an MVP candidate again and the Ravens have no shortage of talent, top to bottom.

AFC South standings

In the least shocking twist of all time, Jacksonville is the pretty comfortable frontrunner here. Houston came into the season with significant hype tied to their defense, but the Texans currently rank 20th in defensive EPA per play. There's a strong case, in fact, that Houston, Indianapolis and Tennessee have been three of the four worst teams in the NFL so far. It's early, and the Jaguars' offense is on a roller coaster ride at the moment, but Jacksonville clearly has the most well-rounded roster and a head coach in Liam Coen who has already proven his chops.

AFC West standings

How 'bout them Chiefs? Kansas City has put a miserable 2025 season fully in the rearview mirror. So much has been written about the folly of paying star running backs, but Kenneth Walker III's arrival has completely revamped the Chiefs offense. It's not hard to imagine a world in which he wins back-to-back Super Bowls on two different teams. Kansas City has also improved its defense considerably. The Raiders are 3-0, which is a fun story, but the real next-best team here is Denver. That Broncos defense is still the real deal, no matter your thoughts on Bo Nix and the offense. As for the zero-win Chargers, well... that's something of a crisis.

AFC playoff bracket entering Week 4

How will the AFC playoff picture change?

Kansas City, Buffalo and Jacksonville are a believable top three, while Baltimore and Denver are sure to stay in the mix. It's still hard to fully buy Pittsburgh as the division champs, however, or even as a Wild Card team. Then again, we've said the same thing for years now and Pittsburgh always finds a way. The team that stands out like a sore thumb in Las Vegas. It's hard to argue with 3-0 and Klint Kubiak just led a Super Bowl-winning offense in Seattle. That said, the Raiders are still waiting to face actual competition. This feels like a classic flash in the pan situation.

NFC East standings

The Eagles lost to Case Keenum and the shorthanded Bears on Monday Night Football in Week 3, but it's probably worth saving your panic for now. The Giants are the fakest above-.500 team of all time, while Dallas and Washington both have crippling issues, particularly on defense. Philadelphia's O-line is a problem and it's fair to wonder if Jalen Hurts will ever again reach the soaring heights he did in Super Bowl runs past, but in terms of pure talent and track record, Philadelphia stands firmly atop this division for now.

NFC North standings

Minnesota is 3-0 almost exclusively on the strength of its defense. It feels odd to distrust a Kevin O'Connell-led offense, but the quarterback situation is tenuous at best. Kyler Murray has clearly not been the Pro Bowler of old, and it's not like Carson Wentz is a most inspiring alternative. Given the talent around them, however, it's easy enough to picture the Vikings blunt-forcing their way to the postseason. On the opposite end of the spectrum, Detroit and Chicago are two explosive offenses with major defensive question marks. Green Bay falls in a similar boat, but there's a rotten stink emanating from the Packers clubhouse right now. That team may be on the verge of collapse.

NFC South standings

The NFC South kinda sucks! Again! It's an annual tradition at this point. Carolina, New Orleans and even Atlanta with Michael Penix Jr., all seem capable of moving the football and putting points on the board (we can wait to see Atlanta face stiffer competition before rendering a final judgement there, however). That said, defense is scarce in the southeast right now. The Panthers won the division last year and are probably the current favorites by default, but Tyler Shough and the Saints feel like a sneaky Real Football Team. New Orleans lost close shootouts to the Lions (2-1) and Raiders (3-0) and beat a very good Ravens team. So, keep your eyes on the Saints.

NFC West standings

The Niners are a scary sight this spooky season. Their offense ranks No. 1 in offensive efficiency (0.32 EPA per play), more than doubling the next-best Bills (0.16). Brock Purdy continues to deftly navigate pressure, create with his legs and layer accurate passes all over the field. At some point, we need to admit that he's a damn good quarterback. Despite a deluge of injuries and a very menacing electrical substation, the Niners are executing on both ends at a very high level. The Seahawks are still a heavyweight contender, however, and the Rams are a deceptive 1-2 team. Los Angeles was the odds-on Super Bowl favorite coming into the year for a reason. This whole division is nails. Even the Cardinals look far more competent and competitive than expected.

NFC playoff bracket entering Week 4

How will the NFC playoff picture change?

At the end of the day, I'd probably hedge my bets on Minnesota given their quarterback situation and the offense in general. Any slippage defensively could send the Vikings tumbling. Chicago and Detroit need to defend, conversely, but either is probably a smarter bet to win the NFC North. San Francisco, meanwhile, will probably compete within its own division for the No. 1 seed. We could see three NFC West teams in the final postseason field; same for the North. Carolina, New Orleans or Atlanta could all emerge from the NFC South. Any of them would be extremely vulnerable and beatable in the first round, probably as a home underdog facing a better team with a superior record.

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