NFL Week 3 picks and predictions, straight-up and ATS: Cowboys roll in Rio, Rams and Panthers rule the road

Making NFL picks and predictions after just two weeks of action feels so daunting. Teams like the Cleveland Browns have picked up a win while the Houston Texans have yet to do so. The Dallas Cowboys, Los Angeles Rams and Denver Broncos bounced back nicely after brutal starts to the 2026 season, while could-be playoff teams entering the year like the Los Angeles Chargers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers have not quite made the same push forward. And all of this is under advisement as we make our NFL Week 3 picks and predictions and hope for the best.

We were more than fine last week with the straight-up picks, but took a bath against the spread. Thankfully, a good start to the year still has the overall record in a fine-enough spot. But we're looking to warm back up as we enter a loaded slate, so let's jump into the NFL picks for Week 3, with predictions both straight-up and ATS for all 16 games on the schedule.

NFL Week 3 predictions: Picks straight-up and ATS for every game

2026 NFL Picks Straight-Up Record: 22-10 (Last Week: 10-6) | ATS Record: 16-16 (Last Week: 5-11)

Note: All lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Toughest NFL Week 3 prediction to make

Los Angeles Rams (-2.5) at Denver Broncos

The Rams are one of several road favorites that I'm on this week in these picks, which is always a nervy proposition. That's even more so the case when it's a matchup against a Denver Broncos team that has delivered an equally uneven start to the season over the first two weeks as Los Angeles. While the Rams' poorly planned Australia travel came back to bite them, they dominated the Giants on Monday night. Meanwhile, the Broncos looked like a completely different team beating Jacksonville than they did in a blowout loss to rival Kansas City.

Even with Myles Garrett on IR, however, the Rams still look like the superior team. It was a credit to Sean Payton and the Denver offense to find itself against the Jaguars, but Los Angeles still offers a much more difficult test in that department — and that's before mentioning how hard it can be to trust Payton and Bo Nix on a week-to-week basis, especially as they continue to break in new pieces on that side of the ball.

More important than that, though, as good as Denver's defense is, we just watched Sean McVay, Matthew Stafford and so on dominate a pretty good Giants defense. It makes all the difference if this team isn't jet-lagged to hell, which I think will allow the Rams to put up a number that the Broncos won't be able to get to against the LA defense.

Easiest NFL Week 3 pick on the board

Carolina Panthers (-2.5) at Cleveland Browns

The Browns won a football game. Sure, that's fine and all, but I think that has a lot more to do with worries and concerns about the Buccaneers than it does to do with Cleveland being any kind of bankable commodity this season. In fact, I'm still quite convinced that the Deshaun Watson-led contingent is quite the opposite of that.

And while the Panthers might be a team that gave up 59 points in Week 1, let's not overlook the fact that Bryce Young and this offense have put up 34+ points in each of this team's first two games. Carolina is clicking offensively in a massive way as their young quarterback might be making a leap before our eyes. Their defense is going to be up and down, no doubt, but there are also enough playmakers like Devin Lloyd, Jaycee Horn and Jaelan Phillips on that side of the ball to force Watson and a pedestrian Browns offense into mistakes that the Panthers can make them pay for.

Once again, taking a road favorite is not exactly my favorite thing in the world to do. Having said that, it's more likely that we see the Cleveland crowd in this one not even provide a homefield advantage as we could see Watson get booed heavily in this matchup. If that's indeed the case, I stand by the fact that Carolina is the clearly superior team in this matchup and won't just win and cover — they'll do so handily.

The pick that probably has you confused

Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys (+3) – NFL Rio Game

Yes, the concerns about the Dallas Cowboys defense are legitimate. They gave up 28 points in Week 1 to the rival Giants, and the Commanders were moving the ball pretty consistently until Jayden Daniels' injury in Week 2. There were improvements for Christian Parker's unit, especially from young players like Jaishawn Barham, that could be a sign of better weeks and performances to come, but it's still not a completed product. And when facing Lamar Jackson and the Ravens in Rio de Janeiro in an uncomfortable environment, that might feel like a bad spot for America's Team.

But are we sure that the Ravens are actually that good? That's not an overreaction to Baltimore losing at home to a good Saints team this past week (though that's certainly at least part of the equation, even if a small portion). However, it is to say the offense we got so excited about in Declan Doyle's debut is not only dealing with injuries, but may have just been taking advantage of a porous Colts defense that followed up conceding 41 points to Baltimore by giving up 33 points to the Chiefs.

Just as importantly, the Ravens have given up 23 and 24 points, respectively, over the first two weeks against offenses that feel pretty definitively a tier below what Dak Prescott and the Cowboys are capable of producing. All that is to say, this game feels like it could devolve into a legitimate shootout, and I'm going to take a field-goal underdog in that spot almost every time because it could very well come down to just a bounce or two of the ball.

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