The Minnesota Vikings have officially named Kyler Murray their starting quarterback for the upcoming season, per ESPN's Adam Schefter. That means former top-10 pick J.J. McCarthy will be demoted to QB2, with his future in the organization shrouded in uncertainty.
The Vikings are looking to rebound from a disappointing 2025 campaign, in which Minnesota finished 9-8 and third in the NFC North standings. Despite closing the season on a five-game win streak, the Vikings missed the postseason, with questions abound regarding McCarthy's ability to both perform and stay healthy. Now, Murray takes over a talented offense with expectations to immediately contend. Let's take a stab at predicting just how successful he will be, week by week.
Week 1 — Packers at Vikings (Sept. 13)
The Packers were a damn good seventh seed last season, held back in the end by a porous defense, which collapsed in their round-one loss to Chicago. But the Packers can score with the best of 'em, and the defense looks stronger on paper this time around. Jordan Love approached MVP territory in 2025 and he's still on the ascent. Minnesota's defense was elite last season, fourth in the league in estimated points added per play (-0.11).
This is a heated division matchup between two contrasting strengths. While the Vikings' offense should perk up with Murray under center — Kevin O'Connell is a great playcaller, lest we forget — the Packers' more established chemistry gives them the Week 1 edge. Murray will be implementing a new playbook for the first time.
Verdict: Packers win
Vikings projected record: 0-1
Week 2 — Vikings at Bears (Sept. 20)
Another difficult early challenge within the division. Chicago's 2025 season was best described as both lucky and cosmic. There's something about Caleb Williams and that Bears offense in the clutch. Ben Johnson clearly has the juice as a head coach. Chicago's defense was nothing special, but the Bears made significant additions in the offseason and Williams has another year of experience under his belt (and what a valuable year of experience it was). So the Bears put Minnesota in an early hole.
Verdict: Bears win
Vikings projected record: 0-2
Week 3 — Vikings at Buccaneers (Sept. 27)
Tampa Bay missed the playoffs at the 11th hour last season, a sobering end note to a catastrophic second-half collapse. Baker Mayfield was in the MVP conversation around Week 8 and on the hot seat in Week 17. The Bucs will probably stabilize on some level this season, but Tampa lost Mike Evans and has not made any serious gains in the league's weakest division. With Murray settled in and a couple tough tests behind them, Minnesota finally gets in the win column in Week 3.
Verdict: Vikings win
Vikings projected record: 1-2
Week 4 — Dolphins at Vikings (Oct. 4)
Miami is a wild card until we see what new head coach Jeff Hafley and offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik are cooking, but there's a nonzero chance the Dolphins are the worst team in the NFL. Malik Willis is undeniably talented and he's probably an upgrade over Tua Tagovailoa, but he's woefully inexperienced for a starting QB, and the roster around him is a complete mess. A long and difficult road lies ahead for the Dolphins, and Minnesota has the advantage in this matchup.
Verdict: Vikings win
Vikings projected record: 2-2
Week 5 — Vikings at Saints (Oct. 11)
The Saints are underrated. Tyler Shough surpassed all realistic expectations as a rookie and it felt like New Orleans laid the foundation for an eventual breakthrough, despite their middling record. Kellen Moore shows immense promise as a head coach, and the Saints were a top-10 defense last season. This will be a tough matchup in a tough road environment, and the Vikings can't win every game as the "favorite." So New Orleans puts them back below .500 in Week 5.
Verdict: Saints win
Vikings projected record: 2-3
Week 6 — BYE
Week 7 — Colts at Vikings (Oct. 25)
The Colts looked like Super Bowl contenders out of the gate last season, only for Daniel Jones to get hurt and the wheels to fall off. Still, Indianapolis was 8-5 when Jones started under center, and there's no shortage of talent in his orbit between Jonathan Taylor, Alec Pierce and Tyler Warren. Jones, who got a cup of coffee with the Vikings after his release from the Giants a couple years ago, would ironically be the clear-cut best quarterback on the Vikings roster now. It feels like a missed opportunity that could come back to bite them directly.
Verdict: Colts win
Vikings projected record: 2-4
Week 8 — Vikings at Lions (Nov. 1)
Detroit missed the playoffs last season in shocking fashion, but it's hard not to look at the roster and think the turnaround will be equally swift and impressive. This is a tough road game in the division — and one Minnesota would like to win to avoid an 0-3 record against NFC North opponents. In the end, however, Detroit will take the day in resounding fashion and the Vikings will be on a three-game skid. At what point does the door reopen to J.J. McCarthy?
Verdict: Lions win
Vikings projected record: 2-5
Week 9 — Bills at Vikings (Nov. 9)
Minnesota hosts Josh Allen and the Bills on Monday Night Football in Week 9 — a chance to Minnesota to restore credibility and take advantage of the additional rest. Just like a team can't win every game as the favorite, Minnesota will invariably pull off an upset or two as well. The Bills are also a deeply flawed team despite Allen's individual brilliance. That said, this will not be that upset. Buffalo has Super Bowl aspirations, and betting against Allen in primetime is never wise.
Verdict: Bills win
Vikings projected record: 2-6
Week 10 — Vikings at Packers (Nov. 15)
A short week, on the road, against an explosive offensive opponent. The Vikings would fall to 0-4 in the division and five games below .500 with over half the season complete. Surely not, right? Well, the Packers win this one. And the Vikings are in free fall, with Murray all but certainly out of the job if he isn't already (not that McCarthy instills much confidence either).
Verdict: Packers win
Vikings projected record: 2-7
Week 11 — 49ers at Vikings (Nov. 22)
San Francisco has not played a preseason snap and the injuries are piling up. Health typically gets worse, not better, throughout the season, and there's reason to believe the Niners could drew the short end of the stick in 2026. The Niners are undeniably the better team on paper, but at some point the Vikings — who are much too talented for a 2-7 record — will find the gas pedal and start to climb. This is that week.
Verdict: Vikings win
Vikings projected record: 3-7
Week 12 — Falcons at Vikings (Nov. 29)
Atlanta has serious talent on both sides of the football, but the quarterback situation is still unresolved and neither Tua Tagovailoa nor Michael Penix inspires much confidence. Atlanta has made a decade out of underperforming expectations at virtually every turn. Kevin Stefanski is a good coach, but he will spend his first season in Atlanta trying to untangle the mess his predecessors left him. The Vikings are on a run.
Verdict: Vikings win
Vikings projected record: 4-7
Week 13 — Panthers at Vikings (Dec. 6)
A very winnable three-week homestand ends with the Panthers coming to town. Minnesota is lucky to have the NFC South on their schedule this season, as none of those teams are really close to contention. The Panthers won their division last year and proved quite resiliant, but the talent favors Minnesota, as will the momentum. Three straight!
Verdict: Vikings win
Vikings projected record: 5-7
Week 14 — Vikings at Patriots (Dec. 10)
On the road and playing on short rest against the reigning AFC champs, this is an uphill battle for the Vikings. Three straight wins is nothing to scoff at, and it's not like the Patriots had a totally normal and drama-free offseason. Still, New England has home field advantage in this matchup and the Patriots are a far more established contender, with Drake Maye coming into his own as an MVP-caliber quarterback. New England cuts Minnesota down a peg.
Verdict: Patriots win
Vikings projected record: 5-8
Week 15 — Lions at Vikings (Dec. 20)
Minnesota hosts Detroit after 10 days of rest, with a chance to claim their first win against a division opponent. The Lions will be the better team this season, but Minnesota is getting desperate and the Lions will fall into a trap.
Verdict: Vikings win
Vikings projected record: 6-8
Week 16 — Commanders at Vikings (TBD)
Washington is a deeply flawed team with huge defensive concerns and an aging roster that will get put through the wringer in a competitive NFC East. This is a chance for Minnesota to revive its postseason chances and keep playing meaningful football down the stretch. Chalk up another Vikings W. That's six in their last seven games.
Verdict; Vikings win
Vikings projected record: 7-8
Week 17 — Vikings at Jets (Jan. 3)
The Jets are probably better than their reputation on paper, but Aaron Glenn will be out of a job next year barring a dramatic and unforeseen turnaround. The Jets are most likely out of the postseason race by this point, while the Vikings are red-hot and hoping to capitalize. This win gets Minnesota to .500 on the season.
Verdict: Vikings win
Projected Vikings record: 8-8
Week 18 — Bears at Vikings (TBD)
With a chance to finish in the green and potentially claim a Wild Card spot, the Vikings will host Chicago, looking for only their second division win. The Bears, Packers and Vikings were all very close down the stretch last season. It could be similar this season, especially if Detroit rebounds as expected. Given the Bears' improved depth and Caleb Williams' penchant for clutch performances, however, it's going to be Chicago coming out on top in the season finale. Another valiant second-half surge from the Vikings will fall short.
Verdict: Bears win
Vikings projected record: 8-9
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