Supercomputer predicts the 2026 NFL season: Projected standings and playoff picture

The 2026 NFL season is almost upon us, which means hope is born anew for 32 fan bases. While it's much too early the predict the NFL standings with any degree of certainty, we can turn to Opta's projection model as a guide for what might happen this season. Or at least, what the math believes will happen.

From the powerhouse Rams and Patriots, to potential surprise contenders in Cincinnati and Detroit, here's how the supercomputer sees the 2026 NFL season playing out.

Supercomputer predicts the final AFC standings

Opta's model predicts one 10-win team in the entire AFC, which will almost certainly prove too reserved. There were five double-digit winners in the AFC last season, including the 14-win, one-seed Broncos, who are predicted around .500 with sub-50 percent postseason odds. Bo Nix skepticism is perfectly valid, but it's worth taking these predictions with a grain of salt, understanding that Opta will update the model more accurately — with more information to process — once the season actually starts. Right now, it's all an abstract numbers game where every team has a chance.

Notably, the model really favors explosive offensive teams like the Bengals and Chargers, despite injury concerns, while more defensive-minded teams like the Texans, Steelers or even the Browns seem to get the short end of the stick, so to speak.

AFC East

AFC North

AFC South

AFC West

AFC Playoff Picture

The Patriots claim the No. 1 seed after their Super Bowl run, with Opta clearly enthused by the addition of A.J. Brown and other offseason reinforcements. The Bengals win the wide-open AFC North, presumably meaning Joe Burrow is able to stay healthy behind an improved offensive line — hopefully with a competent defense to support him.

Jacksonville was the most underrated team in the NFL last season with a top-10 offense and defense. Methinks the Jaguars could surprise some folks again this season, and another division win is totally in the cards. As for the Chargers, leapfrogging Denver in the AFC West signals a major leap, no doubt aided by Mike McDaniel's playcalling, which promises to unlock Justin Herbert.

Most notable, however, are the teams not in the postseason. The Chiefs finish dead last in the AFC West, with the fourth-worst record in the conference. That would signal the true end of a dynasty. The Bills are also absent, with Opta perhaps worried about the ramshackle roster around Josh Allen. Of note, however, Opta did not have Baltimore in the playoffs last time we did these projections after Week 1 of the preseason, so there's mounting mathematical confidence in what Lamar Jackson and new head coach Jesse Minter can accomplish this season.

Supercomputer predicts the final NFC standings

Opta's model really, really loves the Rams — and who doesn't? With Aaron Donald's return, Los Angeles is the heavy favorite to win the NFC and the Super Bowl, with an almost 90 percent chance to make the postseason. Seattle, the reigning champs, are also well-liked by the model, with the third-best projected record and sixth-best playoff odds.

Most surprising perhaps are the Lions, with the second-best record and postseason odds after finishing dead last in the NFC North last season at 9-8. Then again, we know the depth of talent on Detroit's roster, and it's not like the Packers and Bears are unassailable with their mediocre defenses. Chicago in particular is dealt a rough hand in these projections, however. In the NFC East, the Eagles and Cowboys could not be closer; Philadelphia gets the .01 edge in projected wins, but Dallas actually has better postseason odds.

NFC East

NFC North

NFC South

NFC West

NFC Playoff Picture

The Rams take the No. 1 seed from Seattle, but those are probably your betting favorites (again). The Eagles and Cowboys are awfully close, but Philadelphia has owned the NFC East in recent years and it feels like the smart bet is on the Birds, even with the mounting hype around Dallas and its supposedly revamped defense. Let's see if Jerry Jones' team can walk the walk first.

Detroit takes the NFC North, with Chicago booted from the postseason picture. That would be quite the disappointment after Caleb Williams' superhumanly clutch performances in 2025. The NFC South is always a crapshoot it feels like, but Tampa narrowly edges out Carolina, which is the inverse of last year's script. Opta has New Orleans very much in the mix, however. (Like all of us, Opta has zero confidence in the Falcons, no matter who starts at quarterback.)

Green Bay and Seattle in the Wild Card grouping speaks to the depth of the conference. Dallas as the projected No. 7 seed is no joke either. Notably, Opta does not believe in the Commanders O-line (nor does anyone) and the Vikings will not benefit near enough from Kyler Murray's arrival, if these projections hold true.

Add us as a preferred source on Google

Follow