Predicting the World Cup powerhouses most likely to be upset

This summer is the 23rd edition of the FIFA World Cup and, to date, only eight nations have ever been crowned world champions. Of this octet, Italy have once again failed to qualify, but all the other traditional powerhouses will be in North America. By our count, around a dozen of the 48-team field believe they harbour a genuine chance of hoisting the trophy aloft at MetLife Stadium come 19 July.

So, we're assessing the ten leading contenders to win this summer's World Cup and looking at why they won't go all the way, analyzing their vulnerabilities and most glaring fatal flaws. Which contenders are most likely to be upset?

10) Spain

Most made Spain favorites to win the World Cup this summer, a zeitgeist that is difficult to disagree with. La Roja were crowned European champions for the fourth time two summers ago, winning all seven matches, beating England 2-1 in the final at the Olympiastadion in Berlin. However, this is not to say that Luis de la Fuente's team are impenetrable.

The major concern for Spain is the availability of Lamine Yamal. The teenager has been sidelined since suffering a hamstring injury on April 22, and will miss the start of the World Cup, aiming to rebuild his fitness throughout. It was the emergence of Lamine, as well as Nico Williams on the opposite flank, that turned Spain into Euros winners. Williams himself has endured an injury-disrupted campaign too so, without this duo, they might just revert back to the stodgy, lifeless side that crashed out early in Qatar with a whimper. Take these two out, la Roja's front line goes from terrifying to mediocre.

9) France

On paper, no team at this World Cup boasts as good a squad as France. Les Bleus' forward line in particularly is absolutely stacked, even in the absence of Hugo Ekitiké, who suffered a heartbreaking ruptured Achilles against PSG in April. So, can Didier Deschamps get out of the way of his squad?

Appointed all the way back in 2012, this will be Deschamps' final major tournament as France boss, with Zinédine Zidane in line to succeed him. Deschamps has won the World Cup as both a captain and coach, as well as leading France to the final of Euro 2016, another World Cup final in Qatar, and UEFA Nations League glory at San Siro in 2021. However, there are concerning signs.

At Euro 2024, even though les Bleus reached the last four, they scored only four goals across six matches, of which two were own goals and one a penalty. Subsequently, Deschamps has deployed Michael Olise as a No. 10, flanked by Ousmane Dembélé and Désiré Doué, with captain Kylian Mbappé. Given that they have Rayan Cherki, Maghnes Akliouche, Bradley Barcola and Marcus Thuram in reserve, les Bleus should blitz everyone they come up against. However, Deschamps' inherent conservatism could once again hold this team back when it comes to key knockout ties.

8) Argentina

Only Italy in 1938 and Brazil in 1962 have ever successfully retained the World Cup, underlining the scale of the task facing Argentina. In the last five years, despite having endured a 28-year trophy draught beforehand, la Albiceleste have won back-to-back Copa Américas and the World Cup, adding a third star to their crest by beating France on penalties in Qatar, but is this the end?

The main issue facing Lionel Scaloni is, well, put succinctly, age. Talisman Lionel Messi, set to appear at a sixth World Cup, is now 38 years old, but he isn't the only one. Fellow starters Emi Martínez, Nicolás Otamendi and Rodrigo De Paul are also in the 30s; in Otamendi's case he's also 38.

They do have some younger players coming through. Enzo Fernández, who shone four years ago, has just enjoyed his best-ever season at Chelsea, while Julián Álvarez is poised to come to the fore as a national team star, but this is unquestionably an aging squad, which could count against them.

7) Germany

It is unusual that, ahead of a World Cup, Germany are not one of the obvious favorites, reflective of their decline. Die Nationalelf are four-times winners, most-recently hoisting the trophy aloft at the Maracanã in 2014, featuring in eight finals, the most of any nation. In fact, between 1954 and 2014, they reached at least the quarter-finals at all 16 editions, but the last two have not gone so well.

Germany crashed out in the group stages at both of the last two World Cups, despite having not exited in the first round since 1938 beforehand. Their catastrophic campaign in Qatar really was rock-bottom, leading to Hansi Flick being sacked, but there are signs of improvement since the appointment of Julian Nagelsmann. Die Mannschaft reached the quarter-finals at Euro 2024 and the semi-finals of last year's Nations League, both on home soil, ousted by the eventual winners both time, beaten by Spain in Stuttgart and Portugal in Munich.

Nagelsmann is an excellent coach, but does he have the squad to match? There is something of a generational transition going on. 40-year-old Manuel Neuer has been recalled, while starters Antonio Rüdiger, Joshua Kimmich and Leon Goretzka are all in their 30s. On the flip side Lennart Karl, Jamal Musiala and Florian Wirtz are among their exciting youngsters coming through. So, if they find the right balance, Germany could go all the way, but that will be easier said then done.

6) Netherlands

Netherlands are, indisputably, the biggest footballing nation to have never won the World Cup. The Oranje were beaten finalists in '74, '78 and 2010, as well as the semi-finals in 1998 and 2014, so can they go all the way this time? Well, after hitting rock-bottom in the last 2010s, failing to even qualify for back-to-back major tournaments, they appear to be on an upward trajectory again.

Two summers ago, Ronald Koeman's team reached the semi-finals at Euro 2024, despite having not won a knockout match at the tournament for two decades beforehand, eventually dumped out by England. The strength of this Holland squad is their defence. Virgil van Dijk will captain the team, with Jurriën Timber, Denzel Dumfries, Micky van de Ven and Nathan Aké among the top class options to start alongside. Netherlands also have an array of excellent central midfielders, but are likely to lack the elite level attacking difference makers required to win multiple high-stakes knockout ties.

5) Brazil

It still feels wrong that Brazil have not won the World Cup for 24 years. However, given their recent results, this draught does not appear overly likely to come to an end. Since Tite's departure following the last World Cup, the Seleção have hired and fired Ramon Menezes, Fernando Diniz and Dorival Júnior, before ultimately landing Carlo Ancelotti 12 months ago. They also finished down in fifth in CONMEBOL qualifying, losing a home World Cup qualifier for the first time ever, suffering six defeats in total. Even under Ancelotti, Brazil have also been beaten in friendlies by Japan and France.

This Brazil squad undeniably boasts a lot of talent. Goalkeeper Alisson with Marquinhos alongside Gabriel at centre-back is certainly a strong base. In attack, Vinícius Júnior should be the Seleção's talisman, albeit his opener against Panama at the Maracanã last month was only his ninth goal in 48 caps. Brazil do have an impressive squad, as well as one of the best managers in football history, but have shown little signs of being the world's best for some time. The squad could be set for yet another quarter-final exit, as has been the case at each of the last four tournaments they've not hosted.

4) Belgium

Belgium's golden generation era is very much coming to an end, if it hasn't already, so how competitive will this aging squad be this summer? The modern-day high point for this team was reaching the 2018 World Cup semi-finals, ousted by neighbours France in Saint Petersburg. Four years later, their ignominious group stage exit in Qatar did feel like the end of an era.

Well, following a similarly feeble exit from Euro 2024, manager Domenico Tedesco was sacked, with Rudi Garcia taking over. The 62-year-old has had an eclectic coaching career to date; is he a good manager? No one really knows. What is clear is that Garcia's squad boasts some serious talents, albeit mostly from those in their 30s. The returning Thibaut Courtois, star creator Kevin De Bruyne, Leandro Trossard and all-time top-scorer Romelu Lukaku are all past their prime so, perhaps with the exception of Jérémy Doku, the Red Devils lack top-class players at the peak of their powers. Belgium will cruise through a weak Group G, but will probably be beaten by the first top side they encounter.

3) England

Are England due a bad tournament? During the Gareth Southgate era, the Three Lions reached a World Cup quarter and semi-final, as well as back-to-back Euros Finals, albeit silverware still proved illusive. So now, the FA have hired Thomas Tuchel to get this team over the line. However, there are already signs of discontent. Despite a flawless qualification campaign, not so much as conceding a goal, friendly defeats against Senegal and Japan have certainly increased concerns.

Tuchel then excluded many high-profile figures from his squad; Trent Alexander-Arnold, Harry Maguire, Phil Foden, Morgan Gibbs-White and Cole Palmer, to name only a few. That will be an obvious stick to beat him with if England underperform. In Harry Kane, England boast the world's best centre-forward, but constructing a team around the captain is no easy feat. An elongated tournament that will be about endurance, excessive travel and dealing with serious heat screams early England exit.

2) Uruguay

Uruguay proudly wear four stars on their crest, commemorating their World Cup triumphs of 1930 and 1950, as well as their Olympic gold medals earnt in the 1920s. However, are la Celeste still relevant in modern times? Well, a group stage exit in Qatar suggests not, albeit they did reach the semi-finals of Copa América two years ago. Now with Marcelo Bielsa in charge, los Charrúas are always going to be worth watching, but that is where the intrigue lies.

Bielsa is such a divisive character; his teams can be unstoppable when everyone is rowing in the same direction but, as soon as that isn't the case, they can quickly fall apart. Last November, Uruguay's players effectively gave up as they were demolished 5-1 by the USMNT in Tampa, leading to speculation that Bielsa might even step down. Nevertheless, he remains in charge and it'll be fascinating to see if his high-pressing system can work at this tournament. This energetic style does not seem suited to a summer tournament and their third group game against Spain will tell us a lot.

1) Portugal

We're going bold here and forecasting that the heavyweight most likely to endure a disastrous tournament are Portugal. This is largely due to the distraction and sideshow that is Cristiano Ronaldo. At both Qatar 2022 and the most recent Euros, he was a clear hinderance to the team both times, making himself the main character, but scoring only once across both and offering little else.

Roberto Martínez's squad boasts a plethora of talent all over the field, so it is pretty undeniable that having a 41 year old at the top end is preventing them from being a cohesive unit. Across the last nine internationals Ronaldo has missed, Portugal have scored 35 goals, almost four per game. However, no one, certainly not Martínez, has the gumption to leave Ronaldo out for the greater good so, if Portugal are successful this summer, it's likely to be in spite of his attention garnering presence.

More World Cup news and analysis:

Add us as a preferred source on Google

Follow