Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- Mexico secured top spot in World Cup Group A after defeating South Korea, securing a guaranteed spot in the Round of 32 knockout stage on home soil.
- El Tri will play at Estadio Azteca on June 30, likely facing a third-place finisher from Group H or E, such as Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia, or Ecuador.
- Winning the group allows manager Javier Aguirre to rotate his squad, keep players fresh, and maximize home advantage as Mexico targets the quinto partido.
Despite pre-tournament fears that they could embarrass themselves on home soil, this World Cup campaign could not have gone any better so far for Mexico. On Thursday night, in a game low on quality, el Tri beat Korea Republic 1-0 in Guadalajara, with Luis Romo pouncing on an error by Kim Seung-gyu to fire home the winner shortly after the break. This made it two wins out of two for Javier Aguirre's team, having also beaten South Africa 2-0 in the competition's curtain raiser.
Thus, given that head-to-head is the secondary tiebreaker, Mexico has rubber-stamped top spot in Group A with one game to spare, meaning Aguirre can rest and rotate against Czech Republic on Wednesday. Thus, el Tri's place in the gigantic knockout stage bracket is now set in stone. Their round of 32 tie will take place at the Azteca on Thursday, June 30, kicking off at 7 p.m. local time and 9 p.m. ET. That is all known, but who could Mexico play?
Well, they will be up against the third-place finisher from either Group C, E, F, H or I. There are a frankly mind-boggling 495 combinations in terms of which groups will have third-place finishers get out. With that in mind, we've attempted to figure out which of the five groups mentioned is most likely to provide Mexico's opposition.
Percentage chance of Mexico's opponents by group
Group | % chance of 3rd team facing Mexico |
|---|---|
Group C | 20% |
Group E | 36.4% |
Group F | 0.6% |
Group H | 39.19% |
Group I | 3.8% |
In only 19 of the 495 combinations do Mexico end up facing a team from Group I, while this happens for Group F a miserly 3 times. Thus, el Tri fans should pay the closest attention to groups C, E and H.
Most would agree that Group C's most-likely third-place finisher is Scotland. Steve Clarke's side battled to a precious 1-0 win over Haiti but still has to face Morocco and then Brazil, unlikely to pick up anything from either of these two matches.
The Tartan Army has never reached the knockout stages at any World Cup or Euros in 12 previous attempts, so if they do manage to sneak through, it would be an historic achievement. The two sides have only ever met once before, a 1-0 friendly victory at the Azteca for el Tri in June 2018, with Giovani dos Santos the only scorer back then.
Meanwhile, it is Ecuador that is forecast to finish third in Group E after their narrow 1-0 defeat against Côte d'Ivoire last Sunday night. Sebastián Beccacece's team is forecast to beat Curaçao on Saturday and then struggle to get anything against Germany. That would still be enough to progress in third.
Considering Mexico has only ever won four of 28 previous meetings with Ecuador, losing 17 of them, this is an opponent they'd surely rather avoid. At the Copa América two summers ago, el Tri had to beat la Selección in Arizona to get out of the group, but the pair played out a dismal goalless draw as Ecuador advanced at Mexico's expense. Thus, fans would surely fear a repeat.
Last, but by no means least, Mexico's opponents in the next round are statistically most-likely to come from Group H, if that section does provide a third-place finisher. Despite both drawing their opening games, Spain and Uruguay are expected to secure the top two spots, meaning Cape Verde and Saudi Arabia are battling to go through alongside. Their head-to-head clash in Houston on June 26 will surely be a must-win for both.
Unsurprisingly, el Tri has never met World Cup debutants Cape Verde. Meantime, they've never lost against Saudi Arabia, winning six of seven encounters. This includes a 2-1 victory during the most recent World Cup in Qatar, as well as a 2-0 victory is the group stages of last June's CONCACAF Gold Cup, with Alexis Vega breaking the deadlock at State Farm Stadium.
So, in short, a wide-variety of potential opponents are on the table, but Mexico have done all they can, ensuring they'll remain on home soil for as long as possible.
Mexico's potential knockout stage schedule
- Round of 32: Tuesday June, 30. Kick off 9 p.m. ET. Estadio Azteca, Mexico City
- Round of 16: Sunday July, 5. Kick off 8 p.m. ET. Estadio Azteca, Mexico City
- Quarter-final: Saturday July, 11. Kick off 5 p.m. ET. Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens
- Semi-final: Wednesday July, 15. Kick off 3 p.m. ET. Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
- Final: Sunday July, 19. Kick off 3 p.m. ET. MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford
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