This World Cup Final is seemingly impossible to call. Spain are now unbeaten in 37 internationals, equalling the world record set by Italy in 2021, not losing any of their 38 competitive matches since March 2023. Meantime, Argentina have now won 14 straight knockout matches, dating back to 2019, seeking to become the first senior men's national team in history to win four straight tournaments.
Thus, for those attempting to predict a winner, that may seem like an impossible task. However, there is one factor at play that gives one of the two sides a huge advantage. Spain beat France in Texas in their semi-final on Tuesday, before Argentina defeated England in Atlanta 24 hours later. This may not appear like a major difference, but history suggests that Spain will be hoisting the trophy aloft.
Spain vs. Argentina: To win the World Cup odds
Method of victory | Spain | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
Lift the trophy | -154 | +130 |
Win in 90 minutes | +125 | +260 |
Win in extra time | +900 | +1200 |
Win on penalties | +850 | +850 |
Spain has had an extra day to prepare for this final following their semi-final victory in mid-week, able to travel to New Jersey while Argentina were fighting it out against historic rivals England at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium. So, how much of an advantage is that for Luis de la Fuente's team? Well, history suggests an enormous one.
Major tournaments won by the team who played semi-final first
Tournament | Years considered | Times final won by team with an extra day |
|---|---|---|
Men's World Cup | 2006-2022 | 4 out of 5 |
Women's World Cup | 2007 & 2015-2023* | 4 out of 4 |
FIFA Club World Cup | 2025 | 1 out of 1 |
Euros | 2012-2024 | 4 out of 4 |
Copa América | 2007-2024 | 5 out of 7 |
Women's Euros | 2013 & 2022-2025* | 3 out of 3 |
Note: *all other Women's World Cup semi-finals played on the same day. *2017 women's Euros semi-finals played on the same day.
At the World Cup itself, each of the last three finals has been won by the team that has enjoyed an extra day's rest, as well as four of the last five. The sole exception to this was Spain in 2010, who ousted Germany the day after the Netherlands' win over Uruguay but still managed to overcome the Dutch in extra time in Johannesburg. Subsequently, Germany, France and Argentina themselves have all triumphed after claiming victory in the first of the two semi-finals.
This trend extends to other tournaments too. Just last summer, at the first-ever expanded FIFA Club World Cup, Chelsea demolished Paris Saint-Germain 3-0 in the final, also at MetLife, all the goals coming in the first half, looking fresher after an extra day to plan and prepare.
Over at the women's World Cup, at all four editions when the semi-finals have been played on different days, you guessed it, the side to get through first has won the final, including Spain themselves against England down under three years ago. This has also happened at each of the last four men's Euros and five of seven men's Copa Américas since 2004, the two exceptions being Argentina losing to Chile at the Centenario edition in 2016 and la Albiceleste beating Brazil at the Maracanã in 2021.
Thus, put succinctly, across the 24 tournaments included in our research, all from modern times, 21 have been won by the team with an extra day's rest (87.5%) which surely cannot be coincidence. Given this trend, there have been calls for governing bodies to schedule both semis on the same day, something that has been place at the last two Africa Cup of Nations as an example.
Thus, in a game likely to be of such fine margins, this surely gives Spain the upper hand.
Note: Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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