Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- The success of the 48-team 2026 FIFA World Cup has sparked discussions about expanding the tournament further in the next cycle.
- More matches and hydration breaks could significantly boost broadcasting revenue, mirroring deals seen in major US sports leagues.
- The proposal to expand to 64 teams would reshape host nation dynamics and influence future bidding processes for FIFA tournaments.
The 2026 World Cup is winding down, and the tournament has been a smashing success for FIFA. Despite a few officiating controversies, viewership numbers are up and ticket sales are skyrocketing while the expansion to 48 teams has led to some spotlight moments for smaller nations like Cabo Verde.
The 48-team format did produce a complicated third-place tiebreaker system to fill out the Round of 32, but the fears of blowouts left and right did not materialize. Matches between lesser known nations, such as Jordan and Algeria in the group stage, had plenty of fans in attendance to experience the pageantry and spectacle of the World Cup.
The success of the 48-team tournament has apparently inspired FIFA president Gianni Infantino to dream even bigger. Reports are circulating that Infantino is strongly considering pushing for expansion to 64 teams for the 2030 World Cup..
The current plan for the 2030 World Cup is for the majority of games to be held in Iberian Peninsula and Morocco, which would mean the South American countries would host just one game. Expansion to 64 teams would allow each South American nation to have a full group stage and potentially round of 32 matches before the scene shifts to Europe, a similar format to how Canada and Mexico functioned as secondary co-hosts to the United States in 2026.
Why the World Cup would expand to 64 teams
While Infantino would argue that expansion of the World Cup allows more access to the final for nations around the world, the logical answer is money. FIFA made a ton of it off of the 2026 tournament and is at an inflection point with U.S. television rights for the next two editions up for bid.
Adding more matches, while keeping the controversial hydration breaks that FOX has used to sell ads this year, could generate a huge windfall for FIFA akin to broadcast deals for the NFL, NBA and Olympics. Going to 64 teams would still allow the World Cup to function within the same six-week window that this tournament did, creating 16 groups of four teams where only the top two advance to a round of 32.
The big winners of a 64-team World Cup in 2030 would be the South American co-hosts, who would gain more matches than the three combined they are getting as things stand. It would also create an advantageous situation for FIFA when it opens the bidding process for the 2038 tournament.
FIFA's current rules dictate that any confederations that host games in the previous two cycles are not eligible to bid for the current edition of games. The 2030 tournament covering three confederations (AFCON, UEFA and CONMEBOL) left only AFC and Oceania eligible for 2034, allowing Saudi Arabia to claim the World Cup in that cycle essentially unopposed.
If the same rule is kept in 2038, AFC would join the three 2030 hosting confederations as ineligible, leaving only North America (CONCACAF) and the OFC (Oceania) eligible. Australia doesn't count towards Oceania since they play in the AFC, making the USA/Mexico/Canada trio a heavy favorite to regain the World Cup in that cycle if they want it.
FIFA would undoubtedly love to get back to North America as soon as possible considering how much profit they have made from this cycle. Expanding to 64 teams in 2030 creates more of a true hosting experience for the South American sides, which could ease complaints if they aren't eligible to bid for a World Cup in 2038.
Is is too soon to expand the World Cup again?
It took FIFA 28 years to expand the World Cup from 32 teams to 48, which makes a one-cycle jump to 64 seem a bit hasty. We have had exactly one tournament where the World Cup showed it could handle 48 teams, and even then they got a bit lucky that teams like Cabo Verde and Curacao produced results in the group stage.
Expanding to 64 teams would help some of the most prominent teams that missed the World Cup in this cycle, such as Italy and Nigeria, but this will not be like March Madness expansion where the extra bids all go to power conferences. FIFA will likely allot the new bids proportionally as they did for the 2026 World Cup, so more "minnows" from CONCACAF, OFC and AFC will likely gain access to the 64-team tournament.
A 64-team World Cup would allow nearly 31 percent of FIFA's teams to reach the final, which is a very high percentage. Few of these extra teams would be actual threats to win the tournament, but it would be akin to the Oscars — where reaching the final is an honor like being nominated for Best Picture.
Perhaps we would be better off letting the 48-team tournament play out for a few cycles to see if it is truly strong before expanding again. Money dictates the opposite will happen, however, especially given that tournaments historically never contract. Once we hit 64 teams at the World Cup, we will never have less than that again.
Add us as a preferred source on Google