World Cup Group C standings and scenarios: What Brazil, Morocco, Scotland need to advance to knockouts

Only seven goals have been scored across four matches in Group C thus far, but that does not mean each of these fixtures have not been intriguing. Brazil and Morocco's 1-1 draw at MetLife Stadium a week ago was one of the highest-quality matches we will see anywhere across the group phase.

After both the Atlas Lions and the Seleção were victorious on Friday, they are well-placed to reach the knockout stages — but both still have the top spot to fight for. Meanwhile, Scotland's fate in the competition is much more in the balance, but you can guarantee they'll battle tooth and nail to reach the knockout stages of any tournament for the very first time. So, let's examine all the permutations ahead of the final match day in Group C next week.

Group C standings

What's next for Brazil: Knockout round scenarios

• Final group game: vs. Scotland on Wed., June 24, Miami

Brazil have not been particularly impressive across their two matches, but they do currently sit atop the group. Carlo Ancelotti's team climbed into first place by beating Haiti 3-0 in Philadelphia on Friday night, all the goals coming in the first half; Matheus Cunha scoring twice, before Vinícius Júnior made the points secure. Thus, the Seleção are set to maintain their record of having reached the knockout phase at every World Cup since 1966.

It's worth noting at this point that the winners of Group C will face the runners-up from Group F in the last 32, likely one of Sweden, Netherlands or Japan. Meantime, the runners-up will face the winners of the same group, making it advantageous to cement first place. Depending on what happens 650 miles north in Atlanta, Brazil may need to bang in the goals against Scotland to stay on top.

What's next for Morocco: Knockout round scenarios

• Final group game: vs. Haiti on Wed., June 24, Atlanta

Morocco may begin the night second, but are they favorites to end up on top? Ismael Saibari's goal after just 70 seconds was enough to see the Atlas Lions defeat Scotland in Foxborough on Friday evening, the earliest winning goal in World Cup history. While Scotland did push for an equalizer late on, perhaps Mohamed Ouahbi will be disappointed his team did not win by more in Massachusetts.

Nevertheless, the 2022 semifinalists are all but guaranteed a spot in the knockout stages, now seeking to snatch top spot. To do so, assuming Brazil win simultaneously, Morocco will need to better their goal difference. The Atlas Lions' record World Cup victory is a 3-0 win over, coincidentally enough, Scotland in Saint-Étienne 28 years ago, but could they surpass that at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, given that rock-bottom Haiti will be their opponents?

What's next for Scotland: Knockout round scenarios

• Final group game: vs. Brazil on Wed., June 24, Miami

Of Group C's quartet, the team with the most to play for is inarguably Scotland. At 12 previous World Cup and Euros, the Tartan Army have never before made it beyond the group phase, and their hopes of history are hanging in the balance. Steve Clarke's side did get three precious points on the board against Haiti on opening night, but they could pay the price for only winning 1-0.

Friday night's defeat against Morocco at Gillette Stadium by the same scoreline leaves the Dark Blues on three points with a goal difference of zero. If Scotland earn a draw against Brazil in South Florida, historical precedent gives them a 98.48 percent chance of progressing — that's the good news. However, if they are beaten, thereby ending up on three points with a negative goal differential, that number plummets to around 42 percent depending on how badly they are beaten. Thus, not only every point but every goal counts.

What's next for Haiti: Knockout round scenarios

• Final group game: vs. Morocco on Wed., June 24, Atlanta

While there are plenty of permutations to ponder, that is unfortunately not the case for Haiti, which has already been eliminated. With head-to-head the primary tiebreaker, even if Sébastien Migné's side were to win this one, they cannot overtake Scotland and are thus guaranteed to finish fourth.

Nevertheless, despite having nothing tangible to play for, do not expect les Grenadiers to play like that is the case. This is only Haiti's second World Cup appearance, losing all three matches in 1974 against Italy, Poland and Argentina at Olympiapark München. Thus, securing a first-ever World Cup point will be le Rouge et Bleu's aim at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

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