This year's WNBA postseason is an interesting one, because the gap between the playoff and non-playoff teams was so wide that the playoff teams all ended up fairly close to each other record-wise. Does that mean we're going to see upsets, or was it just a function of how the 2026 season played out?
From least likely to most likely, here's how the first-round series rank in terms of upset potential.
4. Dallas Wings over Golden State Valkyries
If the Dallas Wings had a healthy Azzi Fudd in this series, then maybe I could see it, but as it stands now, this series pits the league's best defense against an offense that's been fairly solid but probably not solid enough. While the Wings were sixth in the league in scoring at 89.4 points per game, that number is inflated a bit by the way the season ended, as the Wings played their final seven games against teams that missed the postseason.
The Wings went 0-3 against the Valkyries in the regular season, with the closest loss being by eight points. The Wings never scored more than 80 points against Golden State, and that best offensive performance came in the only meeting in which Fudd played.
The path to Dallas scoring the upset exists. Basically, they need the Valkyries offense to get bogged down by its lack of players who can create their own shot (plausible!) while at least one, but preferably both, of Paige Bueckers and Arike Ogunbowale go nuclear (less plausible). It's hard to see this being the result, but it's an option.
3. Indiana Fever over Las Vegas Aces
I've seen people suggest that the Indiana Fever have the best chance to score a Round 1 upset, but I'm not buying it for one very simple reason: defense wins championships, and the Fever defense is not good, finishing the regular season 11th in scoring defense and ninth in defensive rating.
Sure, the team has the best offensive backcourt in the league with Caitlin Clark and Kelsey Mitchell, but you're going up against arguably the GOAT of the league in A'ja Wilson and a team that ranks just barely behind Indiana in scoring while possessing a much more effective defense. And yes, the Fever did win the season series, but it was a weird series. Both Clark and Wilson were out for one of those meetings.
Would I be shocked by a Fever win here? No. The defensive issues are bound to bite them at some point between now and the conclusion of their season, but it's very possible that the offense can string two elite games together to start things out. I just think that ultimately, that's less likely than the next two upsets.
2. New York Liberty over Minnesota Lynx
It's been a long, weird season for the New York Liberty, but aside from Satou Sabally, the team is as healthy as it's been heading into this series against the Minnesota Lynx. And while the Lynx do look like the best team in the league at the moment, New York's upside is far higher than just being a No. 8 seed that loses in the first round.
Look no farther than two weeks ago when these teams met in Minnesota and the Liberty controlled the game, winning 93-81. The offense was hitting on all cylinders, led by 24 points from Breanna Stewart while Jonquel Jones had 18 and Sabrina Ionescu had 17. Stewart and Ionescu both had three steals while Jones blocked a pair of shots.
New York has a very, very talented roster, albeit one that underachieved for much of the season. That the Liberty might struggle for consistency over a long series actually might make it a good thing that they draw the Lynx in a short one. Getting two wins in three games isn't impossible, especially when New York won the season series 2-1.
1. Washington Mystics over Atlanta Dream
The Atlanta Dream have the edge on paper. They're the better and more talented team, and the Mystics are a young team whose core players lack playoff experience. However, I think there's one thing that really has to be taken into consideration here: Atlanta's roster is weird.
This is a team that ranks third in the league in scoring, but only 11th in field goal percentage. In fact, the team actually allows its opponents to shooting 46.9 percent from the floor while Atlanta shoots 44.2 percent. That rings some alarm bells.
What else rings alarm bells? Well, the Dream went 2-1 against Washington in the regular season, but both wins were only by five points. The loss was by 32 points. This is a series where Washington has a clear path to winning: get off to a hot start offensively and force Atlanta's offenseto play from behind.
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