Welcome to the FanDuel NBA edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best FanDuel NBA lineup!
The purpose of this FanDuel NBA Picks column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
For those of you that are new to Picks and Pivots, we will go through the season tracking trends in this space by looking at the winning GPP lineups each day.
One of the most basic questions when starting out the NBA season is how many points should I be targeting for tournament entries? A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
Now it is unreasonable to expect every player to hit that target, especially when you are utilizing value plays but remember that is the average you need over the course of your roster!
To start the year, I would simply build your roster with the simple 6x rule in mine and do the math quickly. Can I see player X hitting 6x their salary? For example, LeBron James is priced at $9,600 so in order to return value he would need to exceed 57 points.
This is not a hard and fast rule, but as we go through the season I will track the trends each night to understand the target multiplier we should use as our baseline.
Over the first 85 slates, we have seen the average winning GPP score at 373.9 a night which means we have needed 6.2x value to win big!
Thursday’s Main FanDuel NBA action kicks off at 7:00PM EST with four games on the main slate and no shortage of superstars to choose from. Without further ado – let’s get into our top picks for the day!
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guard Picks
Stephen Curry ($9,600) On a short four game slate with no game expected to be closer than 8.5 points per Vegas, this is a tricky slate to navigate due to the potential blowout risks and the clear stars/scrubs approach that the available players lend itself to. These short slates I find are nights where I try to be smart in my bankroll management and look more towards cash games or single entry tournaments as it becomes very difficult to find true variance from the field!
At the top end of the PG position, the decision essentially comes down to John Wall or Stephen Curry for me and I think you need to pay up for one of them. Curry comes at a $1.2k discount from Wall and is coming off back to back 60 FanDuel point outings! The Warriors have the highest team total on the slate and actually have the smallest spread(8.5) so I have no issue building around Golden State tonight against the Clippers as a result!
D’Angelo Russell ($6,100) Russell is going to be popular tonight after his monster outing last game but I am less concerned with ownership on this slate and will look to build around what I consider to be the best players from a raw points perspective.
Russell dropped 47.4 FanDuel points against Denver on the back of 24 points, 10 assists and 7 rebounds and as long as we do not get any word of a minutes restriction tonight should see another game around 34 minutes which makes him a near lock at this price point on a short slate!
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guard Picks
Eric Gordon ($5,600) The Rockets have the second highest team total on this slate but I have a hard time paying $12k for James Harden without much value available so would rather drop down to a player like Eric Gordon to get my Rockets exposure.
Gordon should continue to see 28-30 minutes off the bench for the Rockets and will typically dominate the usage for the Rockets second unit which gives him a very solid cash game floor while having the offensive upside for GPP play as well. Gordon has double-digit shot attempts in 13 of his last 14 games and with the best place to attack the Hawks being in the back-court, Gordon is a nice mid-range target that allows you roster flexibility tonight without sacrificing upside!
Nick Young ($4,300) Oh Swaggy P, I cannot quit you! Shooting Guard is a tough spot to fill tonight if you choose to pass on James Harden so if you need a value option with upside look no further than Nick Young.
Young is playing 30 minutes a night for the Lakers and has hit 7x value (30 FD points) in two of his last six games which demonstrates the GPP upside he has each night! Young has double-digit shot attempts in five of his last six games and should be counted on for scoring as the Lakers try to keep pace with the Wizards tonight!
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forward Picks
Otto Porter ($6,700) On this slate we are going to need some exposure to the Wizards as they face a Lakers team that is giving up the second most fantasy points this season and the Wizards see a massive 8 point projected scoring increase over their season average!
Porter is one of the more volatile players on Washington from a fantasy perspective as he has 30+ FanDuel points in four of his last eight games but this is a match-up where Porter should excel as the Wizards will play at a faster pace against a turnover prone team!
Andre Igoudala ($4,400) On a short slate I will typically look to find some value plays that give me 5x value, knowing they probably won’t win me a slate but also wont sink my team, and for me tonight hat guy us Iggy.
Igoudala has hit 5x value in three of his last four games and is locked into 25+ minutes a night for Golden State. Last night, Igoudala played 25 minutes but it will be interesting to see how the Warriors handle life without Zaza Pachulia as it could result in them going with a smaller lineup (Draymond at the 5) which would mean Igoudala gets more run!
UPDATE: With the news that LaMarcus Aldridge is OUT tonight, Kawhi Leonard ($10,100) should get all the run he can handle! With Pau Gasol and Aldridge off the floor this year, Kawhi sees a 7% usage bump and leads the team with a massive 40% usage while putting up 1.88 fantasy points per minute!
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forward and Center Picks
Paul Millsap ($8,500) and Dwight Howard ($7,100) I am grouping these two together tonight as I will look to stack the two Hawks front court players in all formats tonight against the Rockets!
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The best place to attack Houston is at PF/C as they are ranked 24th in DvP against both and Howard and Millsap dominated this match-up earlier this season. In their first meeting Millsap dropped 23 points, 11 boards and 5 steals for a 53 FanDuel point outing while Howard racked up 20 points, 15 rebounds and 45.5 FD points against his former team!
Of all the plays on this slate, to me, Millsap and Howard have some of the best point per dollar upside and you can easily stack them while still being able to afford another high-priced stud in your lineup!
Markieff Morris ($7,600) I cannot believe I am going to recommend playing Kieff for $7.6k but I expect most will look at this price tag and simply go $100 more for Draymond Green which is exactly why I think Morris makes an ideal pivot play!
The Lakers are 30th in DvP to opposing PF’s and Markieff comes into this game with 30+ FD points in six of his last nine games. If you are looking for a pivot off Draymond Green I would expect Markieff can be had for a fraction of the ownership and doesn’t have to go up against Blake Griffin!
UPDATE: With LMA OUT tonight, look towards David Lee ($5,100) who sees a 5% usage increase and averages a fantasy point/minute with LMA and Gasol off the floor this season!
Best of luck tonight in your FanDuel NBA contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking roster news and lineup updates!
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