FanDuel MLB Daily Picks and Pivots – July 6 2017
Welcome to the Thursday FanDuel MLB edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for today’s Main Slate which kicks off at 7:05PM EST!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Wednesday’s winning GPP scores were WAY below our season average as it took 226.7 FanDuel points to take down a tournament! Over the first 100 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 263.2 points. Looking back at last season, the winning GPP lineup on average scored 255 FanDuel points with a typical roster build that allocated 25% of your salary cap to your SP and the remaining 75% to your hitters.
Over the first 100 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 263.2 points.
The Wednesday Main Slate was absolutely brutal as a late PPD in the Mets/Nationals game sunk our Jacob deGrom based lines that we stuck with even with the risky weather in DC. The winning GPP’s lines were centered around Alex Wood who dropped 61 FanDuel points at a massive 43% ownership as a result of the deGrom weather issues. Offensively the Rangers bats put up 8 runs as the top stack of the night with Rougned Odor‘s 34.6 FD points leading the way!
Each day we will break down our top Starting Pitcher and our top hitting stacks of the day while giving you our thoughts on roster build and lineup construction.
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel MLB – Top Starting Pitcher Pick:
Thursday’s MLB action kicks off with a four game Early Slate that is a 100% stay away for me as we have a Coors Field game with a run total 3 runs higher than any other game and a plethora of horrendous pitching to choose from. Sometimes it is OK to take slates off and on a slate where the Coors ownership will be massive with everyone just hoping their pitcher doesn’t bury them – I will gladly sit this one out and focus on the Main Slate!
Chris Sale ($11,800): What jumps out to me on the Main Slate is that we do not have a single game with a projected total over 9.5 today and much of that is due to the incredible pitching options we get to choose from with Jose Berrios, Robbie Ray and Lance McCullers at the top with great GPP arms like Dinelson Lamet, Rich Hill and Jake Faria at cheaper price tiers.
What that means for me is that pitching is the key to this slate and if I am going to anchor myself to any arm then I will go to battle with the best arm on the slate in Chris Sale against Tampa Bay.
Just looking at the match-up and metrics on paper – the Rays have the highest K rate (28.6%) as a team on this slate and Sale has the highest K rate (35.5%) and swinging strike rate (16%) on the slate. It does not take a math genius to add up what this could mean from a DFS perspective as another double-digit strikeout game seems like a near certainty here.
Sale has faced the Rays twice already this season, striking out 12 batters in each game with FanDuel point totals of 58 and 64 in those outings. In those two outings Sale had a 16% swinging strike rate and an absurd 47% K rate – seriously just think about that for a second – he struck out 24 of 51 batters faced.
The Rays are a team Sale has dominated in his career striking out 46 of the 125 batters he has faced (37% K rate) giving up only 2 doubles and 1 home run in that span. Sale is the absolute best play today and the slate really dictates that pitching is where you need to invest your cap space so why not lock in the top dog, take your 50-60 FanDuel points and move on?
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Stacks
Minnesota Twins versus Dylan Bundy: The Main Slate hitting options are a tougher nut to crack as we have only two teams with implied run totals over 5 so there is no real “obvious” must have offensive spot. The Indians have the highest team total but Dinelson Lamet has the raw arsenal to dominate even the best line-ups so I am going to let others chase that play and will instead go back to the Twins again tonight against Dylan Bundy.
Bundy on the season is giving up 1.6 HR/9 and 36% hard contact with the only real splits difference coming in his K rate as he only punches out 12% of left-handed batters compared to 25% of right-handed hitters.
The Twins offense is priced reasonably for this slate which is important considering we only have $2,900 per hitter if we are paying up for Sale. Brian Dozier ($3,400) and Miguel Sano ($3,600) are the clear top plays if you are building around the Twins and considering they burned many on Wednesday I would expect a dip in ownership tonight! Max Kepler ($2,700) is an elite value play who gets the splits advantage against Bundy and allows you to complete a nice top of the order Twins three-man stack!
San Diego Padres versus Josh Tomlin: No team scores fewer runs per game than the San Diego Padres (3.6) which is 0.3 runs lower than the next closest team on this slate so why on Earth would we want to stack them? The Padres today have a middle of the road run projection of 4.3 runs which is a 20% jump over their season long numbers (highest jump on the slate) and Vegas seems to agree that a match-up against Josh Tomlin has some sneaky upside.
Tomlin on the season is giving up 2.14 HR/9 and 37% hard contact to right-handed hitters and will face a Padres line-up that not only has right-handed pop, but the prices on FanDuel are such that we can easily afford them with Chris Sale, Dozier and Sano!
Jose Pirela ($2,700), Manuel Margot ($3,000) and Wil Myers ($3,200) can be employed as a 1-3 top of the order stack here and with the Indians installed as massive favorites I simply expect them to be ignored in GPP play.
FanDuel MLB – Sample GPP Line-Up and Slate Overview:
P: Chris Sale ($11,800)
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C: Chris Gimenez ($2,100)
1B: Wil Myers ($3,200)
2B: Brian Dozier ($3,400)
3B: Miguel Sano ($3,600)
SS: Erick Aybar ($2,400)
OF: Max Kepler ($2,700)
OF: Manuel Margot ($3,000)
OF: Jose Pirela ($2,700)
Slate Overview: Pitching is king on this slate and frankly you cannot afford to whiff on it as the opportunity cost of missing at starting pitcher is far too great and there is not enough offensive firepower to cover your missteps. When a slate leans this heavily towards a certain roster build I am completely fine “eating the chalk” with the best arm in Chris Sale and will hope that with so many other great options its draws even slightly away from his ownership. Hitting is going to be what really separates you today so take your time and do some research to try to uncover some hitters (one-off plays etc) that you could utilize to really set yourself apart from the field. The Indians and Twins will likely be the most popular plays due to the Vegas run totals so targeting a team like the Padres or the A’s who have mediocre run totals facing bad pitchers is a great way to build a secondary stack!
Best of luck in your FanDuel MLB contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!