Welcome to the Tuesday FanDuel MLB edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for today’s Main Slate DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
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The winning GPP line-up on Monday put up scores well below our season average with 238.2 FanDuel points. Over the first 124 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 260.5 points. Looking back at last season, the winning GPP lineup on average scored 255 FanDuel points with a typical roster build that allocated 25% of your salary cap to your SP and the remaining 75% to your hitters.
Over the first 124 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 260.5 points.
Monday’s short Main Slate was a relatively straight forward one to break down as Picks and Pivots focused their roster build on Max Scherzer and the Reds offense which ultimately paid off and kept us above the cash line! Scherzer delivered 7 innings and 9 K’s for 46 FanDuel points while the Reds offense exploded for 11 runs with home runs from Joey Votto and Zack Cozart. The key to this slate as the day unfolded was the amount of value/punt plays in good spots which made fitting in Scherzer and high-priced bats the clear roster build and allowed you to stay above the cash line on a low scoring seven game slate!
Each day we will break down our top Starting Pitcher and our top hitting stacks of the day while giving you our thoughts on roster build and lineup construction.
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel MLB – Top Starting Pitcher Pick:
Let’s not bury the lead here, this slate is going to dominated from a roster build perspective by Corey Kluber and Chris Sale, who are the clear top arms on the this slate and maybe any slate. These two arms have K rates over 35% and by comparison no other arm is over 26% and both sport swinging strike rates above 15%. Any way you slice it these two guys are 1-2 on the slate and the advanced metrics support it in every possible way – the question is, do you HAVE to roster them?
When you look at a slate like this – you need to ask yourself three key questions – 1) Is there a legit pivot option we like? 2) If you pay down are there offenses you feel like have the upside to win you a slate? 3) Is there a game theory advantage for GPP’s by fading them?
We will touch on numbers 1 and 2 in a second but I think the third question really is where my mind goes here. There is no doubt in my mind that Kluber and Sale will be 1-2 in ownership on this slate and I would expect roughly 40% or more of the ownership to be concentrated on these two arms. What is interesting to me about that is they sit at similar price points just $300 apart at $11.7k and $11.4k respectively so the roster build around whichever pitcher you choose is essentially the exact same.
So by fading Kluber and Sale I am NOT saying there is an arm that I expect to out score them (that would be silly) but I am looking more at fading the roster build that the majority of the field will have no choice but to anchor to if they pay up for these arms.
Now back to Question 1, is there an arm I like that is a legit pivot? The guy that stands out to me on this slate is Chad Kuhl ($6,300) who gets a home start against the Tigers, a team that is absolutely reeling since they traded away J.D. Martinez and Alex Avila and has now become a team we can attack with pitching. Want proof? Look at last night’s Pirates starter Trevor Williams as a perfect example as he spun 7 innings, giving up 1 hit while striking out 5 and getting the Win/QS bonuses on his way to 46 FanDuel points.
Look at that line and tell me that Kuhl is not capable of something similar which would exceed 7x value at this bargain price point and allow you the ability to load up on the high-priced bats that Kluber/Sale owners cannot afford.
Kuhl is coming off one of his best starts of the year at home versus the Reds where he struck out 6 batters in a Win/QS/Shutout on his way to 49 FanDuel points. What intrigues me about Kuhl are his splits as he is absolutely murder on right-handed hitters, limiting them to 0.46 HR/9 with a near 50% ground ball rate and when pitching at home versus righties he sees his hard contact drop to 26% while his ground ball rate sits at 50%. He will likely face 7-8 right-handers in the Tigers line-up tonight which sets up perfectly for him!
The Tigers have the fourth lowest run total on the board today and Kuhl is the fourth largest favorite on the board at -170 so this is a great spot to target run prevention and the Win/QS bonuses on FanDuel.
The reality is the Tigers are a team we can attack as they have a minuscule .110 team wOBA over the last two weeks and that is WITH Justin Upton being on absolute fire! The Tigers have a 22% K rate so there is upside here for Kuhl to punch out 5-7 batters which combined with his ability to limit runs (2 or fewer ER in six of his last seven starts) would put him in position to get 40+ FanDuel points which at this price point would leave you sitting pretty with nearly $3,600 per batter remaining to fill out your line-up.
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Stacks:
One of the questions we posed in the pitching section was whether or not we had offenses that we thought could carry us if we choose to pivot of Kluber and Sale and on this slate we only have two offenses with run projections of 5 or more – but those two spots could dominate this slate!
Houston Astros versus LHP Derek Holland: Not shockingly the Astros have the highest team total at 5.7 projected runs and against a hittable left-hander in Holland there is no wonder the total is high but should we really focus our build on a team that is down two of its biggest hitters?
Not so fast my friend! George Springer ($4,000) is expected to return to the line-up today and this is the PERFECT spot to fire him right back up while the masses see the red DL tag next to his name and simply move on during their early roster build. Assuming the official news comes out later in the day it could significantly suppress ownership which gives us a massive advantage! For a semi-comparison, Cameron Maybin was expected to re-join the Angels last night after a DL stint and bat lead-off but the official news came just before lock but if you had been paying attention you would have already had this information queued up and could have rostered Maybin for under 1% in tournaments.
Now I am not saying that Springer will be under 1% owned (although I would love that) but if the news does not come out until later in the day, DFS players may already have their builds/targets set which may lead to suppressed ownership in his first game back.
Holland meanwhile is a pitcher we can STACK IT UP against as he gives up 2.4 HR/9 and 40.4% hard contact to right-handed hitters with 43% fly ball rate. So we have a pitcher who gives up hard contact to righties with tons of home runs and now he faces the Astros who are the highest scoring team in baseball (5.9 runs) on the year? Told you there was a spot that could win you this slate!
All the right-handers are in play here but I will prioritize Springer, Jose Altuve ($4,200), Marwin Gonzalez ($3,300) and Alex Bregman ($3,800).
Washington Nationals versus Vance Worley: The only other team with a 5+ run total can be found in DC and after they let down the DFS world last night, people may be hesitant to go back to the well here but I love this spot. The Marlins had to go to their pen in the second inning last night due to injury so the bullpen got worked and now they turn to a pitcher in Worley with a 5+ ERA who is giving up 46% hard contact to left-handed batters (hello Bryce Harper)!
What I love about the Nationals stack is they fit in perfectly around the Astros core I laid out above as we can stack the left-handed bats of Bryce Harper ($4,800) and Brian Goodwin ($3,200) in the OF right next to Mr. Springer and can utilize Ryan Zimmerman ($3,400) at first base to complete a tidy three-man stack with the two highest scoring projected offenses on the day!
FanDuel MLB – Sample GPP Line-Up and Slate Overview
Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.
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P: Chad Kuhl ($6,300)
C: $2K Punt Option
1B: Ryan Zimmerman ($3,400)
2B: Jose Altuve ($4,200)
3B: Alex Bregman ($3,800)
SS: Marwin Gonzalez ($3,300)
OF: George Springer ($4,000)
OF: Bryce Harper ($4,800)
OF: Brian Goodwin ($3,200)
Slate Overview: This slate is going to be dominated by Kluber/Sale which means if you can build a high upside pivot line off of them and the roster builds that accompany them then this sets up for a great GPP day! The Astros with George Springer back could not ask for a better match-up against a home run prone lefty and they will be at the core of my build today and even if you opt to pay up at pitcher, this is a most spot for exposure in my opinion!
Best of luck in your FanDuel MLB contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR and @2LockSports for the latest DFS news and analysis.
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