The College Football Playoff selection committee has come up with its first set of rankings. They barely resemble the ones our trusty supercomputer gave us.
The Opta supercomputer ranks every team in the FBS while assigning a “Playoff Potential” score that estimates its likelihood of making the 12-team playoff field.
We’ve had a few days to chew on — and complain about — the first rankings from the committee. And now that the November stretch run is upon us, it’s a good time to hit Command-R and refresh the supercomputer’s top 25. As usual, we stuck to the rules of the selection process: autobids for the Power Four conference champions and the highest ranked team from the Group of Six, then seven at-large selections.
The rankings, projected first-round matchups
Supercomputer Rank | Team | Opta Playoff Potential | CFP Committee Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Notre Dame | 99.6% | 11 |
2 | Georgia | 99.3% | 2 |
3 | Miami | 99% | 1 |
4 | Alabama | 98.6% | 5 |
5 | Wake Forest | 98.6% | 16 |
6 | Utah | 96.6% | 3 |
7 | UCLA | 96% | 8 |
8 | LSU | 94% | 14 |
9 | Texas | 93.6% | 7 |
10 | Ole Miss | 89.2% | 10 |
11 | Indiana | 86.9% | 4 |
12 | Ohio State | 79.9% | 12 |
13 | Tennessee | 56.4% | 13 |
14 | Boise State | 55.7% | 25 |
15 | Kentucky | 55.2% | 6 |
16 | Arizona | 52.3% | 22 |
17 | Iowa | 50.6% | 19 |
18 | Liberty | 48.1% | NR |
19 | BYU | 43.7% | 9 |
20 | Houston | 35.7% | 17 |
21 | Duke | 25.7% | NR |
22 | Southern California | 23.4% | 20 |
23 | South Carolina | 21.7% | 21 |
24 | Northwestern | 21.2% | NR |
25 | Texas Tech | 20.7% | 15 |
- (12) Boise State vs. (5) Wake Forest
- (11) Indiana vs. (6) Utah
- (10) Ole Miss vs. (7) UCLA
- (9) Texas vs. (8) LSU
Low computer rankings for Miami, Indiana, Kentucky
Through two months, Miami has established itself as the nation’s consensus No. 1 team. Quarterback Darian Mensah and the Hurricanes hold the top spot in the Associated Press poll, the coaches’ poll and the official CFP rankings. But they still have some work to do to impress the computer — its rankings put Miami two spots lower, at No. 3.
But the Hurricanes aren’t the only team that can complain about its computer ranking. Reigning national champion Indiana (ranked fourth by the committee) is 11th in the eyes of the committee and would be the last at-large team to make the field. And Kentucky — which the selection committee ranked sixth — is nowhere to be found in the computer’s bracket: Opta puts the Wildcats at No. 15 — nine spots lower than the committee’s ranking.
The supercomputer loves Notre Dame and Wake Forest
At the other end of the spectrum are Notre Dame and Wake Forest, each of which had a legitimate gripe after the CFP committee put the Fighting Irish 11th and the Demon Deacons 16th. But the supercomputer swung pretty far in the other direction, giving both top-four seeds and first-round byes. The Fighting Irish held the top spot for a second straight week. They can prove themselves worthy by beating Miami this weekend.
Wake Forest has been underappreciated for much of the year and thought it deserved better from the committee. But this may be overdoing it a bit: The computer pegs the Demon Deacons at No. 5, ahead of unbeaten league leaders Utah and UCLA.
Conference call: SEC reigns, while Big 12 has a beef
We have to wonder if this supercomputer’s servers are located in Tuscaloosa. The mighty Southeastern Conference is well-represented with five teams in its field. Two other power conferences — the Big Ten and Atlantic Coast Conference — have two apiece.
And then there’s the Big 12. You couldn’t blame Commissioner Brett Yormark for wanting to pull its plug. Sure, unbeaten Utah is in there. But a conference hoping to earn multiple berths has to wonder how the computer added up its numbers because so many of its teams are clustered near the bottom of its top 25.
BYU, ranked No. 9 by the committee, is 10 spots lower in the computer’s rankings. That’s still a spot ahead of Houston, which the committee ranked 17th but the computer placed at No. 20. Yet even that is better than Texas Tech. While the Red Raiders are 15th in the CFP rankings, they are barely hanging on at 25th on the computer’s list despite beating the Big 12’s second-highest-ranked team — No. 16 Arizona.
Buckeyes on the bubble
One thing the committee and the supercomputer agree on: Ohio State is on the bubble. The Buckeyes are 12th in both rankings and would be the first team out according to both. That’s what a blowout loss at previously unranked Southern California will get you. Of course, Ohio State has plenty of opportunities to play its way back into the field, starting with this week’s visit from Oregon.
Boise State leads the Group of Six
Boise State continues to be the G6 team to beat, and the computer thinks pretty highly of the Broncos, ranking them 14th — 11 spots higher than the CFP committee put them. Either way, they’re in the best position to claim the playoff berth reserved for the top non-Power Four team. But the computer has a surprise team behind them — Liberty. The Flames, unranked by the committee and sixth in the FanSided G6 poll, have won seven in a row since a season-opening loss to James Madison. If the Broncos slip up — especially this week at Colorado State without quarterback Maddux Madsen — why not put Liberty in the conversation?
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