How many players make the cut at the U.S. Open? Projected cut line, rules for Shinnecock

A U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills has historically been among the stiffest tests that championship golf has to offer. And yet, as the second round gets underway on Friday, scoring has been ... positively humane?

Okay, so maybe that's a bit strong; this is still the U.S. Open, after all, and there are plenty of big names fighting just to keep their heads above water and make the weekend. But we saw a shocking number of birdies late in a marathon first round on Thursday, and ideal conditions have led to more of the same so far in Round 2.

All of which could come together to give us a cut line a bit lower than what we'd expect at this particular course and this particular tournament. Here's everything to know about the 2026 U.S. Open cut line and who will — and won't — survive to see the weekend.

Projected U.S. Open cut line at Shinnecock Hills

The cut line for the U.S. Open is the top 60 plus ties, which means that every player tied for 60th place or better will make it through. As things currently stand midway through the second round, that cut line stands at +3 — with 10 golfers sitting at that number on the dot.

But scores figure to get worse as the day goes on, and that could bump the cut line up a bit. According to the live model at Data Golf, the cut line has just a 5.5 percent chance to stay at +3, with a 74.8 percent chance to land at +4 and a 19.3% chance to wind up at +5.

It's worth noting that these models aren't perfect; they have a hard time taking into account both the weather and conditions on the course, there have been several low scores so far already on Friday. There's a real chance that the cut line sticks at +3 after all — which could leave several very big names on the outside looking in.

Bryson DeChambeau, Jordan Spieth lead stars in danger of missing the cut

Bryson DeChambeau's major struggles have continued so far this week. After firing a solid even-par 70 on Thursday, he's had a rough time on Friday, currently sitting at four-over through his first 16 holes. That would obviously leave him at the mercy of the cut-line gods as the day winds down, hoping it falls back a stroke in order to see the weekend.

But he's far from alone. There's a huge group currently sitting in the same precarious position at +4, one that includes names like Viktor Hovland. Jordan Spieth, Shane Lowry and Chris Gotterup all sit at +5, with defending champion J.J. Spaun in real trouble at +7 as he gets set to begin his round at approximately 2:30 p.m. ET.

And while it's golf, meaning that anything can happen on a given week at the highest levels of the sport, the truth of the matter is that it's a bit unfortunate that some of these big names weren't able to rise to the top amid the thorough test that Shinnecock was providing.

Cut lines at the last five U.S. Opens

A cut line of +3 would be a significant departure from what we've seen at the last couple of U.S. Opens, both of which were unsparing. Last year at Oakmont was so tough that it nearly caused an existential crisis for the USGA, with the cut line landing at +7. Even two years ago, in 2024, it was +5 at Pinehurst — two strokes above the current projection at Shinnecock.

All of which has led to some bellyaching on the internet about whether this year's tournament has or has not been a sufficient test. But if you look back just a little bit farther, you'll see that the scoring in 2026 is pretty much right in line with what we've seen most years, and even one shot above the cut line at LACC in 2023. Plus, we should have more difficult conditions over the weekend to really put the best golfers in the world to the test.

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