MLB free agency will unfold on an accelerated timeline over the next month as teams rush to beat the buzzer on a likely Dec. 1 lockout. Several marquee names, including two-time Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal, are expected to sign before the long layoff begins.
While the typical big-spenders will control the marketplace — think Dodgers, Yankees, Blue Jays and Phillies — there are always a handful of surprises every offseason. Let us dive into FanSided's top eight free agents and determine a dark horse destination for each of them, within the realm of possibility.
RHP Sonny Gray
Dark horse destination: Tampa Bay Rays
Sonny Gray wants to sign with a contender. He's also a Nashville native, so returning to the Southeast could be a determining factor in his ultimate decision. The Tampa Bay Rays don't typically throw money around in free agency, but Gray could provide a nice boost on a short-term deal — especially if Tampa Bay follows through on trading Drew Rasmussen.
Gray isn't a proper No. 1 starter at this stage of his career, but at his highest gear, he can still reach that level. He put up a 2.72 ERA and 1.15 WHIP across 29 starts in Boston, which felt like a revival after his more middling stint with St. Louis. The Rays might relish the opportunity to poach a major contributor from a division rival, too.
LHP Trevor Rogers
Dark horse destination: Athletics
The Athletics will move to Las Vegas in 2028, which promises a sharp increase in both funding and pressure to starting winning. Trevor Rogers will turn 29 before next season, but he's probably the only non-Skubal pitcher in line for a five-plus year contract, if he wants it.
Rogers has dealt with his share of injuries and the numbers don't always match the talent, but when he's locked in, the big southpaw has stretches where he's an extremely solid No. 2 pitcher, if not an outright ace. The A's need pitching desperately. Their lineup is strong enough to contend sooner than later. If Rogers can headline a move to Vegas in a year — and help the A's take that next step beforehand — it could prove to be a shrewd investment.
2B Brandon Lowe
Dark horse destination: Los Angeles Dodgers
The Los Angeles Dodgers will anxiously await the results of this winter's CBA negotiations. Expect the front office to push hard for a Tarik Skubal reunion and to potentially reshuffle the deck elsewhere; Teoscar Hernandez's name continues to pop up as a potential salary dump. It wouldn't be the least bit shocking for L.A. to start acting more mindful of its cap sheet. Owner Mark Walter's financial scandal looms ever large.
That said, if there's a position of "need" for baseball's deepest and more talent-rich team, it's probably second base. Tommy Edman is fine enough, but he's not really a dependable everyday player. Brandon Lowe's age could scare off a Dodgers team in need of youthful verve, but he's a monster slugger with a steady baseline of 20 to 30 home runs and 70 to 100 RBI. The Dodgers like to make a splash.
3B Teruaki Sato
Dark horse destination: Athletics
Another shout for the A's. Teruaki Sato comes over from Japan facing similar questions as Munetaka Murakami did a year ago: Can he actually play third base? Does he strike out too much? That shouldn't prevent the 27-year-old from landing a hearty, multi-year contract. However, if those concerns bubble up and drop his price into the eight-figure range, the A's should be all over it.
The move to Las Vegas should generate more revenue. Sato also opens the A's up to the Japanese market, which is booming in MLB these days. He'd also stay in the West, first in Sacramento and then in Las Vegas —a selling point for past free agents crossing the Pacific. It's partly why the Dodgers (and the Angels, Padres and even Giants) have successfully lured free agents from east Asia.
OF Randy Arozarena
Dark horse destination: Chicago Cubs
The Chicago Cubs could lose both Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ in free agency. Former top prospect Owen Caissie was sent out in the Edward Cabrera trade last winter, while the Kevin Alcantara leap hasn't really happened. That leaves a potential hole in the outfield, where Chicago has felt so strong for so long. The Arozarena market probably isn't that much cheaper than Suzuki's, in all fairness, but if Suzuki signs elsewhere first — and if Arozarena's strikeout numbers and declining bat speed drum up concerns — he could fall right in Chicago's lap.
Arozarena is a solid enough defender and a great personality for any clubhouse. As he ages into his mid-30s, it's safe to assume contention is near the top of his priority list, along with securing the most guaranteed money. The Cubs aren't huge spenders, but they still rank toward the top of a league rife with stingy owners. Factor in the real chance to compete deep into October, flanked by an MVP candidate in Pete Crow-Armstrong, and it's not hard to imagine Arozarena picking the North Side.
OF Seiya Suzuki
Dark horse destination: Baltimore Orioles
The Baltimore Orioles made a huge splash last winter, signing Pete Alonso to a five-year, $155 million contract. There's a chance Seiya Suzuki can approach that number in free agency himself; he's the top position player in a scarce market, with an incredibly steady baseline for production. He also defends well and should age with relative grace.
So why not the Orioles again? Baltimore's many outfield prospects have come and gone without much success. This team is still looking for ways to break through in a cutthroat division and it feels like the O's are operating from a distant last place right now, even if Baltimore was close-ish in the standings. Suzuki and Alonso can provide 70-plus homers combined, with a proven track record to mitigate the uncertainty of Baltimore's more youthful core.
INF Jazz Chisholm Jr.
Dark horse destination: Tampa Bay Rays
Another shout for the Rays, who could use some more offensive punch in the middle infield. Junior Caminero and Jonathan Aranda are steady boppers at the corners, but Ben Williamson and Richie Palacios combined to provide a whole lot of nothing from second base last season. Again, the Rays aren't traditionally huge spenders, but Chisholm could end up on a short-term, prove-it type deal. One can't help but think a World Series loss ought to propel the Rays to operate with more aggression than usual, too.
Chisholm would land in Florida, where he started his career with the Marlins. He'd get a chance to exact revenge upon the Yankees from a division rival. He's not necessarily what you'd imagine a Rays star to be on paper — Chisholm's swing decisions are all over the place, and he can undermine his special athleticism with mental errors on the bases — but he'd probably benefit from Tampa Bay's institutional focus on finer details. He's still a great defender, too.
LHP Tarik Skubal
Dark horse destination: Detroit Tigers
Tarik Skubal made it clear, on more than one occasion, that he hoped to spend his entire career with the Detroit Tigers. That dream is out the window, but there's a stark narrative difference between half a season in L.A. and another decade spent with the Dodgers — or the Mets or the Blue Jays or the Cubs. This is Skubal's last chance to stamp himself as a Tigers legend. It's also the last chance for Detroit to put a serious offer on the table.
The Tigers continue to earn mention as a potential suitor. The Framber Valdez contract last winter came out to $38.3 million AAV, which isn't far off from what Skubal is expected to receive. The commitment to Skubal would be for much longer, but if there's any pitcher worth breaking standard operating procedure for, it's the two-time Cy Young winner. Detroit has let so many great pitchers walk out the door, never to return (at least, not in their prime). Why not go above and beyond for Skubal? It would be special for him — and more importantly, special for the fans.
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