Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- New MLB analytics are turning challenge data into a powerful pre-pitch scouting report for pitchers and catchers.
- Contenders face hidden risks as opposing teams can now target hitters with proven struggles against borderline calls.
- The playoff pressure will test whether managers trust the numbers or their hitters' instincts in October's decisive moments.
Every MLB team now has a scouting report that didn't exist a year ago, and it tells you exactly which hitters can correctly challenge balls and strikes, as well as which catchers consistently steal those challenges back.
Picture the at-bat before it happens: Two outs in the ninth inning in a one-run game in September, and both teams are in the midst of a playoff push. The count runs full. The pitcher throws a fastball an inch off the outside corner, the kind that's been a coin flip all year depending on who's catching. The umpire calls it a strike.
Does the hitter tap his helmet and trigger an ABS challenge? More importantly, should he? This is where 100 games of regular-season data comes in.
Every playoff contender now has a hidden scouting report
Let's start with a hypothetical. The Cleveland Guardians are fighting for the AL Central right now, and José Ramírez has challenged just four ball-strike calls all season. He's won zero. The Seattle Mariners are a half-game out in the AL West, and catcher Cal Raleigh, who wins 61 percent of his challenges behind the plate and 75 percent of his challenges as a hitter, is arguably the best two-way zone reader in the sport.
Put those two teams on the field in a one-run game in September or October. A pitcher throws Ramírez that same borderline fastball. Raleigh catches it clean, presents it well and the umpire calls it a strike. Ramírez has two options, and the data says both of them are bad: He can walk back to the dugout with a strikeout he's not sure was real, or he can tap his helmet and challenge a call that Ramírez, specifically, has never once won this season. Either way, Cleveland loses that at-bat before the pitch is even thrown, because the batter standing in the box has already shown the league, in writing, that he can't be trusted at the edge of the zone.
You just read a scouting report hidden in a story, and it is real.
Which teams should worry most about their ABS numbers?
Contenders with hitters who struggle reading the zone should be nervous. A pitcher and catcher don't need to guess anymore whether a hitter will fight back on a close pitch — they can look it up.
- Jazz Chisholm Jr.: 4-for-15 (27%)
- Matt Olson: 2-for-11 (18%)
- Jordan Walker: 2-for-10 (20%)
- Dansby Swanson: 0-for-4
Jazz Chisholm Jr. is just 4-for-15 on challenges, a lowly 27 percent, for a New York Yankees team with the AL's best run differential. Matt Olson is 2-for-11, 18 percent, anchoring an Atlanta Braves lineup that's supposed to be the safest bet in the league. Jordan Walker, the Home Run Derby champion fueling a surprise St. Louis Cardinals playoff push, is 2-for-10. And Dansby Swanson, at shortstop for a Wild Card Cubs team, is 0-for-4.
Now pair each of them against the catchers waiting on the other side of a potential October matchup. Atlanta and Philadelphia are division rivals fighting each other all September, and Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto wins 71 percent of his challenges behind the plate. St. Louis and Chicago are both scrapping for the last NL Wild Card spot, meaning Walker could see plenty of Carson Kelly down the stretch — and the Cubs catcher wins 76 percent of his challenges, the best rate of any high-volume backstop in the sport.
If either series came down to a third-strike call in a one-run game, the hitter with the worse track record is walking into a fight for which the other dugout already knows the odds of victory.
How ABS data could decide October's biggest moments
Pitching coaches, managers and catchers should be all over this. A hitter's own challenge history is a free scouting report on exactly how hard he can be squeezed at the plate, and if an opposing dugout hasn't found it yet, that's on them, not on the data.
It's the bottom of the ninth in September. Your team is up by one, fighting to stay alive in the race. If you already know the pitch that needs to be thrown, and you watch it end in a strikeout before the umpire even rings it up, you're the smart one in the room.
All ABS Challenge System data from baseballsavant.com 7/20/2026
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