Rarely do the best players in free agency sign the best value deals of that offseason. Sure, Pete Alonso, Alex Bregman and Kyle Schwarber were all outstanding in the first year of their mega-deals. They were also paid to be stars. The best value signings of the offseason were guys like Nick Martinez and Luis Arraez, who signed bargain one-year deals later in the offseason (and are likely to earn substantial raises this winter).
Tarik Skubal is sure to be the best player to sign from this offseason's free agency class, but with a $400 million contract within striking distance, are we sure he'll be the best bargain signing? Almost certainly no. These players, however, could be the best offseason bargains, based on Spotrac's projected contract values.
1. 1B/OF Jake Bauers
Expected annual average value: $14.5 million
Jake Bauers was the most prolific slugger during the regular season for the 103-win and eventual World Series champion Milwaukee Brewers, hitting 26 home runs and driving in 76 runs. I understand why some might fear giving Bauers a hefty contract. After all, his home run total more than doubled his previous season high of 12.
At 31 years old, can he repeat his breakout year? Who knows? But he's always had a great eye and sneaky-good advanced metrics. He put it all together this past season. His batted-ball data suggest he could be in for an even better 2027. Bauers certainly deserves more than $14.5 million, especially when guys like Taylor Ward and Jack Flaherty are projected to make more in terms of AAV per Spotrac.
2. RHP Clay Holmes
Expected annual average value: $13.85 million
The New York Mets took a risk when they signed Clay Holmes to a three-year, $38 million deal with the intention of converting him to a starting pitcher. All the right-hander has done is thrive in that role, as his 3.44 ERA in 51 appearances (49 starts) indicates. Holmes struggled a bit down the stretch after being traded to the Chicago Cubs at the trade deadline, but for the most part, he has looked like a rock-solid mid-rotation arm.
So, now that Holmes has proven he can be a quality starter, why is he expected to go from an AAV of just under $13 million to one just above it? He just rejected a $12 million player option, suggesting he thinks he's worth more (which he is). Holmes' age (33) might prevent him from receiving a lengthy deal, but he's a lock to get more than $13.85 million in AAV.
3. LHP Adrian Morejon
Expected annual average value: $11.9 million
Since the start of 2024, Adrian Morejon of the San Diego Padres leads all qualified relievers in innings pitched (223.1), ranks fifth in appearances (211), has the ninth-best FIP (2.42) and has accumulated the third-most fWAR (6.2). He's done all of this while posting a sparkling 2.58 ERA. Yet, despite being arguably the best reliever not named Mason Miller for a three-year stretch, Morejon's AAV is set for under $12 million. Huh?
I understand that relievers don't get paid like starters do, and Morejon probably won't be converted to a starting pitcher like Holmes. I also get that he has the qualified offer attached. Still, Morejon is projected to earn less in AAV than relievers like David Bednar, Emilio Pagan and Gregory Soto. How? Just last year, we saw Robert Suarez, who is eight years older than Morejon and not as good, sign a three-year, $45 million contract with the Braves — a $15 million AAV. Morejon at less than $12 million would be the biggest steal of the winter.
4. INF/OF Mauricio Dubon
Expected annual average value: $11.4 million
This one might seem weird, because Mauricio Dubon doesn't add much offensive value. This season might have the best of his career at the plate, yet he just hit 12 home runs, drove in 73 runs and had a 98 OPS+ while playing regularly for the Atlanta Braves. I think Dubon is slept on, though, mainly because of the defensive value he brings.
Dubon has already won two Gold Glove awards and is a National League finalist for the Utility Gold Glove award. He has at least 20 appearances at every position other than pitcher and catcher, and he's an excellent defender just about anywhere you put him. If Dubon can be a league-average hitter, as he essentially was in 2026, his defensive value and versatility make him an underrated, valuable option.
5. RHP Raisel Iglesias
Expected annual average value: $11.4 million
Raisel Iglesias has been a lock-down closer for a while, and that trend continued in 2026 when he posted a 2.55 ERA in 59 appearances and converted 34 of his 37 save opportunities for the Braves. He was even named an All-Star for the first time, and deservedly so. As a reward for his great season, Iglesias is projected to earn an AAV almost $5 million lower than the one he got last offseason.
I understand that Iglesias will be 37 years old in 2027, and his velocity continues to decline. But he also just posted the highest chase rate of his career, so clearly, the opposition is struggling to pick up his pitches. I'd be far more comfortable paying him than Pagan or Soto.
6. DH Joc Pederson
Expected annual average value: $9.4 million
Joc Pederson's market will always be limited to an extent, given that he's a DH who can only really hit right-handed pitching. But he hit 26 home runs with an .816 OPS for the Texas Rangers. He hit .245 with 25 of his homers and an .834 OPS coming against righties. He's limited, but extremely good at crushing righties, yet he isn't even expected to earn eight figures in 2027 per Spotrac.
That seems crazy, especially considering that Pederson rejected his end of an $18.5 million mutual option. Pederson will probably end up getting a bit under the number he turned down if he lands a multi-year deal, but $9.4 million is shockingly low.
7. LHP A.J. Puk
Expected annual average value: $1.3 million
I understand the red flags that come from signing A.J. Puk. He was limited to just eight appearances in 2025 due to an elbow injury, and missed the entire 2026 campaign recovering from UCL surgery on that same elbow. Betting on a pitcher with so few appearances in two years (with none of them coming in his walk year) is a risky proposition, and one that not many teams would jump at if he commands a hefty salary. But $1.3 million? Really?
When healthy, Puk is a legitimate hard-throwing high-leverage arm who can dominate both lefties and righties. When last seen in a full season in 2024, he had a 3.15 ERA in 62 appearances and 71.1 innings of work while rocking an impressive 29.9 percent strikeout rate. I'm not here to say he's going to do that in 2027, but a $1.3 million contract is as cheap as it gets. He's a pitcher every team should be trying to sign at that price.
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