Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- With the MLB trade deadline approaching, one All-Star starter faces a high likelihood of being moved despite recent team improvements.
- A veteran shortstop with full no-trade protection and a large contract appears more likely to stay put until winter, though one playoff-contending division rival is noted as a potential suitor.
- Another All-Star catcher from a wildcard contender is reportedly open to offers, creating a possible seismic shift with less than two weeks to go.
With the All-Star break in the rearview mirror, all focus has shifted to the next event on the MLB calendar: the trade deadline. We're less than two weeks away from deadline day on Aug. 3, which means that deals can start trickling in really any time. It might be worth turning those Robert Murray notifications on right about now.
Given the proximity to the deadline, rumors are swirling up the wazoo. Let's dive into the latest worth discussing, courtesy of Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN.
Tarik Skubal isn't as safe as Tigers fans want him to be
The Detroit Tigers have played well since Tarik Skubal returned from the IL, going 18-12 since his activation, and that's allowed them to get back into the postseason hunt. They're only 4.5 games back of the third Wild Card spot in the AL, and that's given fans hope that perhaps the Tigers won't move the free agent to be at the deadline after all. Perhaps they'd be willing to push for the playoffs one more time before Skubal leaves in free agency this winter.
Unfortunately, Passan poured some cold water on that. Despite their better play of late, Passan lists the odds of the Tigers trading Skubal at 60 percent. That number is admittedly lower than it's been, but 60 percent odds suggest it's still more than likely that the lefty is going to be traded. And as much as Tigers fans don't want to hear this, it makes sense.
Skubal is a near lock to leave Detroit in the offseason. The only world in which it makes sense not to trade him now and receive at least one high-end prospect in return would be one that has the Tigers in World Series contention. The team has been better of late, but they're still six games under .500 and behind the 8-ball when it comes to making the postseason.
If the Tigers keep winning, sure, the idea of keeping Skubal becomes more realistic, but their postseason odds are at 33 percent per FanGraphs. Is that number really high enough to hold onto Skubal for just a couple of months — when, instead, they can trade him for players who can potentially help them in 2027 and beyond?
Francisco Lindor could be an offseason target for the Braves
Francisco Lindor's name has circulated in recent trade rumors, and he certainly makes sense on paper for a team like the Atlanta Braves which desperately needs a shortstop. Unfortunately, based on what Passan and McDaniel had to say, Lindor sounds like more of an offseason discussion.
"Like many on this list in front of him, Lindor is not likely to go anywhere at the deadline. Given the size of his contract — larger than any other available and desirable player's — his age (33 in November) and his full no-trade protection, a Lindor deal isn't exactly easy to pull off. That doesn't mean it won't happen. It's just likelier, if the Mets really are on board with moving him, to happen in the winter."
As discouraging as that update might be, the fact that Passan lists the Braves as a potential fit for Lindor certainly raises some eyebrows. Again, the fit is easy to see on paper, but the odds of the Mets trading Lindor, still one of the best players at his position when healthy, within the NL East certainly feel slim. Perhaps they aren't, though.
It'll be interesting to see just how heavily Alex Anthopoulos pursues Lindor, a great player whose contract is iffy at best, and how open the Mets are to doing business with their arch rivals.
Orioles are listening on Adley Rutschman
Adley Rutschman has been a popular name in trade rumors for a little while, but no serious talks have been reported. Based on what Passan and McDaniel had to say, that could change at the deadline. "The Orioles aren't exactly looking to trade Rutschman, but they are certainly listening on the 2019 No. 1 pick."
Sure, they aren't eager to trade him, but the fact that they're listening suggests that a deal could be made. Passan lists the odds of him being dealt at 30 percent, and if he is traded, that can be a postseason-altering move. Rutschman has had a bounce-back season, posting a .764 OPS and making the AL All-Star team.
On one hand, it'd be strange for an Orioles team in the thick of the AL Wild Card race to trade Rutschman, one of their best players. On the other hand, Rutschman is only under control for one more year with an extensive injury history, and Baltimore has its long-term catcher solution in Samuel Basallo locked in on a contract extension. They don't need to trade Rutschman, but if they can get an immense prospect haul — or perhaps even a player or two who can help them in other areas of need — why not pull the trigger?
It'll be interesting to see what Mike Elias does. A high bar would presumably have to be met for Rutschman to get traded, but given the lack of sellers, there could be a major offer on the table for the star catcher some time within the next couple of weeks.
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