If your team is one of the 12 in the postseason, congratulations! If it's not, there are still some matchups that would certainly make this upcoming World Series fun to watch even for those with no skin in the game. We already ran through the pairings that every contender's fans are quietly hoping for; this is the version with the numbers attached.
Two stats carry most of that weight. wRC+ measures total offensive value against a league-average hitter, where 100 is average and anything above it is gravy. FIP, meanwhile, strips fielding out of a pitcher's ERA to isolate what he actually controls: strikeouts, walks, homers. What potential matchup would give us the best mix of off-field narrative and on-field drama? Let's dive in.
7. Braves vs. Red Sox
Both sides are one injury update from looking like a different team by the time the World Series rolls around. Atlanta still has Chris Sale (2.16 FIP) but is playing without Spencer Strider, MartÃn Pérez and Bryce Elder. Boston's Garrett Crochet has been out since April but is reportedly building toward a return if the Red Sox survive the Wild Card round. Willson Contreras has been the best version of himself since the trade from St. Louis (151 wRC+), and Atlanta counters with Matt Olson's 41 homers. Pitching makes this one fun to watch.
6. Padres vs. Guardians
Fernando Tatis Jr. is the most watchable chaos agent in the sport, and Mason Miller closing games at a 1.67 ERA doesn't hurt either. San Diego's defense ranks second in baseball by runs saved. Cleveland finished the year 9-1 and has real pitching depth in Parker Messick (2.56 FIP) and closer Cade Smith. Nobody here walks a ton or strikes out a ton. It's just clean, competitive baseball top to bottom.
5. Cubs vs. Yankees
Two of the sport's most recognizable names, both carrying real title droughts, and a genuine style clash: Baseball's best offense and best defense (Chicago) against the American League's best run prevention, anchored by Cam Schlittler's emergence as a true ace. Ben Rice has been New York's best hitter. The catch is that neither bullpen holds up under a microscope: The Yankees have blown a league-worst-tied 27 saves, and the Cubs don't have a single reliever with even 10 saves.
4. Rays vs. Dodgers
Tampa Bay does this every few years, building a 98-win team on a shoestring budget that nobody outside the division notices. Junior Caminero (42 homers) and Drew Rasmussen (2.67 FIP) would hold up on any roster in the sport. Across from them: the two-time defending champs, and Shohei Ohtani doing the things Shohei Ohtani does. Smart versus rich, the epitome of the cap-no cap argument.
3. Cubs vs. White Sox
These two have actually done this once before, back in 1906, when the pitching-and-defense White Sox, known as the "Hitless Wonders," upset a 116-win Cubs team for the title. It hasn't happened since. This year's version reads like an echo: The Cubs are still the same juggernaut, powered by Pete Crow-Armstrong (156 wRC+, 45 homers), while the White Sox again have to grind it out, riding Miguel Vargas and NPB import Munetaka Murakami and hoping closer Grant Taylor's seven blown saves don't cost them a series. A city forced to pick a side for the first time in 120 years sells itself.
2. Cubs vs. Astros
This is the pettiest matchup available, and that's a compliment. Alex Bregman spent most of a decade in Houston before signing with Chicago via Boston, and a title on the line would make it personal. Houston counters with a monster year from Yordan Alvarez (181 wRC+, an OPS over 1.000) and an untouchable Josh Hader, but they're doing it without Carlos Correa, Jake Meyers and Daulton Varsho. They also own the worst defense and ERA of any playoff team. The baseball might be lopsided. The grudge isn't.
1. Brewers vs. Yankees
Milwaukee's plus-212 run differential is the best in the sport. There is no AL team is within shouting distance of it, but New York's the closest thing: a +138 run differential and the Majors' best team ERA (3.24). Milwaukee counters with Jacob Misiorowski, a 1.80 FIP with 252 strikeouts, arguably the most electric arm in the sport not named Paul Skenes. Throw in the open question of how much of October Aaron Judge plays after his calf strain, and this is the pairing with the most actually riding on it.
Ask me again in a week.
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