The end of the MLB regular season is just a few days away, yet, while we know who most of the playoff teams are at this point, there're still three races up for grabs. The Cleveland Guardians are holding onto first place in the AL Central, but barely. The Philadelphia Phillies control their own destiny in the NL Wild Card race, but they might be collapsing. The Houston Astros and Texas Rangers are tied atop the AL West despite having sub-.500 records entering Friday's action.
Additionally, seeding, particularly in the NL Wild Card race, is nowhere near finalized. With so much still to play for, it's time to predict how the final standings will turn out, using the brainpower of our supercomputer and our own eyes.
Supercomputer prediction for the final MLB standings
AL East
Team | Projected wins | Projected losses | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|
Tampa Bay Rays | 97.4 | 64.6 | 100 |
New York Yankees | 93.8 | 68.2 | 100 |
Boston Red Sox | 86.5 | 75.5 | 100 |
Baltimore Orioles | 79.2 | 82.8 | 0 |
Toronto Blue Jays | 78.7 | 83.3 | 0 |
AL Central
Team | Projected wins | Projected losses | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|
Cleveland Guardians | 84.6 | 77.4 | 100 |
Chicago White Sox | 83.9 | 78.1 | 100 |
Minnesota Twins | 76.5 | 85.5 | 0 |
Detroit Tigers | 75.6 | 86.4 | 0 |
Kansas City Royals | 69.4 | 92.6 | 0 |
AL West
Team | Projected wins | Projected losses | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|
Houston Astros | 80.5 | 81.5 | 69.2 |
Texas Rangers | 80.5 | 81.5 | 30.8 |
Seattle Mariners | 75.7 | 86.3 | 0 |
Athletics | 64.5 | 97.5 | 0 |
Los Angeles Angels | 62.3 | 99.7 | 0 |
NL East
Team | Projected wins | Projected losses | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|
Atlanta Braves | 94.5 | 67.5 | 100 |
Philadelphia Phillies | 88.6 | 73.4 | 91.8 |
Miami Marlins | 79.5 | 82.5 | 0 |
Washington Nationals | 76.6 | 85.4 | 0 |
New York Mets | 74.4 | 87.6 | 0 |
NL Central
Team | Projected wins | Projected losses | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|
Milwaukee Brewers | 101.8 | 60.1 | 100 |
Chicago Cubs | 89.5 | 72.5 | 100 |
Pittsburgh Pirates | 82.4 | 79.6 | 0 |
St. Louis Cardinals | 78.2 | 83.8 | 0 |
Cincinnati Reds | 75.3 | 86.7 | 0 |
NL West
Team | Projected wins | Projected losses | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|
Los Angeles Dodgers | 98.7 | 63.3 | 100 |
San Diego Padres | 90.6 | 71.4 | 100 |
Arizona Diamondbacks | 86.4 | 75.6 | 8.2 |
San Francisco Giants | 66.3 | 95.7 | 0 |
Colorado Rockies | 58.1 | 103.9 | 0 |
Final AL playoff picture, per supercomputer
- No. 1 (BYE): Tampa Bay Rays
- No. 2 (BYE): Cleveland Guardians
- (3) Houston Astros vs. (6) Chicago White Sox
- (4) New York Yankees vs. (5) Boston Red Sox
The supercomputer essentially thinks that the standings will look the same as they do right now. It has the Cleveland Guardians winning the AL Central by a game, and has the Houston Astros finishing with the exact same record as the Texas Rangers, earning the division title thanks to a tiebreaker over their arch rivals. This is certainly the most likely outcome, with Cleveland currently ahead of Chicago in the standings and Houston needing to be as good as or better than Texas to win the West.
Final NL playoff picture, per supercomputer
- No. 1 (BYE): Milwaukee Brewers
- No. 2 (BYE): Los Angeles Dodgers
- (3) Atlanta Braves vs. (6) Philadelphia Phillies
- (4) San Diego Padres vs. (5) Chicago Cubs
In the NL, it thinks the Philadelphia Phillies have a near 100 percent chance of making the playoffs, with the Diamondbacks narrowly missing out despite finishing 10 games over .500. Philadelphia's magic number makes this the likely outcome, but given how they've been playing of late, it isn't a sure thing. Even if they do make it, overcoming the Atlanta Braves, who dominated them in the regular season, won't be easy.
While things could end up playing out this way, here's what we think will happen.
Our final projected MLB playoff field
American League
Seed | Team |
|---|---|
1 | Tampa Bay Rays |
2 | Chicago White Sox |
3 | Houston Astros |
4 | New York Yankees |
5 | Boston Red Sox |
6 | Cleveland Guardians |
Wild Card round matchups
- (1) Tampa Bay Rays: BYE
- (2) Chicago White Sox: BYE
- (3) Houston Astros vs. (6) Cleveland Guardians
- (4) New York Yankees vs. (5) Boston Red Sox
The AL Central race has the Guardians in front for now, but while they have a 1.0-game lead, it's worth noting that the White Sox have the tiebreaker, meaning if they finish the year with the same record, Chicago wins the division. That's what I expect to happen. The Guardians have a relatively easy road series in Kansas City, but one of the games will see them face Michael Wacha, who has allowed three earned runs in 22 innings against them this season, and Cleveland has only gone 5-5 against the Royals overall. Assuming they lose once and the White Sox take care of a Colorado Rockies team that's already lost 100 games, the division is Chicago's.
As for the other race, I have zero faith in the Astros or Rangers, but a series against the Athletics is a lot easier than a series against the semi-competent Twins on the road. Plus, with Hunter Brown scheduled to pitch on Friday and Houston having the tiebreker, it'd be pretty shocking to see the Rangers overtake them, especially after dropping a home series to the New York Mets.
National League
Seed | Team |
|---|---|
1 | Milwaukee Brewers |
2 | Los Angeles Dodgers |
3 | Atlanta Braves |
4 | San Diego Padres |
5 | Chicago Cubs |
6 | Philadelphia Phillies |
The big National League race to watch is between the Phillies and D-Backs, but while I think Arizona has certainly played better of late, the odds are the odds for a reason. The Phillies' magic number is at two, meaning that any combination of two Phillies wins and Diamondbacks losses would give Philadelphia a spot in October. The magic number remaining at two past Friday would make things more interesting, but with the Phillies facing a Rays team with nothing to play for at home and Arizona facing a San Diego team with seeding up for grabs on the road, the odds are squarely in Philadelphia's favor.
Another thing worth keeping an eye on is the seeding, as home-field advantage and matchups can play a major role. Given the Cubs' tough adjusted schedule and the Phillies' struggles, I think the seeding will remain as is, resulting in the Padres earning home-field advantage against the Cubs, and the Phillies having to go to Atlanta.
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