The biggest MLB trade deadline 'steals' that could actually backfire

The MLB trade deadline has passed and there was no shortage of fireworks, with Tarik Skubal, Adley Rutschman, Luis García Jr. and Luis Arráez among the marquee names involved. When we discuss the trade deadline in the moment, we typically laud the contenders who went out and added stars. In reality, however, not every major addition or under-the-radar "steal" will actually work out for the buyer.

With these five trades in particular, there is real downside risk for the widely proclaimed "winners" in each deal.

RHP Ryan Zeferjahn, Chicago Cubs

To further clarify, we are imagining worst-case outcomes here. I like this trade for Chicago — a lot. Ryan Zeferjahn is one of the most prolific strikeout relievers in the Majors. His stuff borders on untouchable when he's able to command it. With a few slight tweaks to improve his consistency, Zeferjahn could become Chicago's closer for the next half-decade.

That said, the Cubs paid a real price to acquire a controllable reliever with Zeferjahn's upside. At the end of the day, there's only so much value even the best relievers can muster. The Angels got a potential everyday bat in Moisés Ballesteros, who exploded onto the scene in Chicago last season with an .868 OPS and 147 OPS+ across his first 20 games. His production has declined this year, but Ballesteros still hits the ball hard — and he's only 22, under club control through 2031.

The Angels are beginning what promises to be a long and patient rebuild, so Ballesteros shouldn't find at-bats hard to come by. He's a poor defender who probably won't stick behind home plate, but L.A. can give him every opportunity to improve in that department. If he can't, there's still a world in which Ballesteros can become a valuable DH in the heart of this lineup for years to come.

Mason McGwire is more than a throw-in, too. The Angels' track record of developing pitchers is spotty at best, but if Anaheim ends up with a rotation arm and an annual 20-plus homer threat, Chicago could come to regret this splurge.

LHP Kris Bubic, Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers are basically rubbing it in. Kris Bubic is pure luxury; he is maybe the sixth or seventh starter on this team when healthy, and he was an All-Star in 2025. Bubic's numbers have regressed in 2026, however, with a 4.11 ERA and 1.23 WHIP across 50.1 innings. Moreover, he's on the 60-day IL, expected to return with about a month left in the regular season.

This was a pure depth rental for the Dodgers. The price was low, but Bubic will probably end up pitching lower-leverage spots out of the bullpen before joining another team in 2027 when he can take on a starter's workload again.

Carlos Duran was unranked in a deep Dodgers farm system, but he has 61 strikeouts in 42.2 innings at Triple-A this season, with a 4.01 ERA. The 25-year-old should come by a much greater opportunity for promotion in Kansas City, where the bullpen is in dire need of firepower. Under club control through 2031, there's a nonzero chance Duran becomes a bullpen regular for the Royals while Bubic just sort of spends two months in the shadows on the impossibly deep Dodgers.

LHP Robbie Ray, San Diego Padres

Robbie Ray is on a heater right now, but there's inherent risk to every rental. The Padres are fighting an uphill battle to even make the playoffs, although adding Ray and Casey Mize to the rotation will surely help their cause. Ray has a stellar 3.08 ERA and 1.28 WHIP, with 107 strikeouts in 122.2 innings. The former Cy Young winner has been a durable, dependable weapon for the Giants all season.

That said, the underlying metrics aren't so inspiring (4.33 xERA), with Ray the beneficiary of batted ball luck and an elite Giants defense (in a very pitcher-friendly Giants ballpark). He could find the sledding much tougher in San Diego, and it's hard to trust the Padres' offense to back up their rejuvinated pitching staff in a playoff series.

The Giants got a couple real prospects out of this. Neither is due imminently in the Majors, but Miguel Mendez has an explosive fastball-slider combo and was one of San Diego's better pitching prospects before the trade. Joniel Hernandez, a 17-year-old shortstop, will need a lot of patience and a lot of seasoning, but he's toolsy and productive. Given the derelict state of the Padres' farm system, trading two youngsters with so much upside for what could be a very underwhelming half-season of 34-year-old Ray is a huge risk.

RHP José Soriano, Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays did not sit idly at the trade deadline, both selling and buying, with righty José Soriano as their prized investment. Soriano comes with two additional years of club control; he can help Toronto return to contention in 2027, effectively replacing outgoing veteran Kevin Gausman as Dylan Cease's new No. 2 in the rotation.

That said, Toronto paid a hefty price, as one does for a controllable arm with an air-tight 3.29 ERA. Arjun Nimmala was Toronto's No. 2 prospect at MLB Pipeline, ranked No. 43 nationally. He now takes on a similar stature in Anaheim, with a chance to join the Angels' big-league squad as soon as 2027.

Nimmala is a big lefty power bat at a premium position, with a cannon for an arm and sharp defensive instincts. He has a .355 OBP and .806 OPS at Double-A this season, just 20 years of age. The Angels can envision him sharing the middle of the infield with Zach Neto for a long time — or replacing Neto, who will become a hot commodity in offseason trade chatter.

Tarik Skubal, Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers poached Skubal from Detroit in the least surprising blockbuster of all time. We could all see this coming from a mile away, and of course Los Angeles was right to pull the trigger. Equipped with MLB's deepest farm system, the Dodgers were able to part with Zyhir Hope and River Ryan — two consensus top-100 prospects with major talent — and barely feel it. Hope was stuck behind several other elite outfield prospects in the Dodgers pipeline, while Ryan was stuck in the Minors at 27 years old due to L.A.'s unmatched depth.

All signs point to this ending favorably for the Dodgers. We shall see if next offseason's CBA negotiations impact L.A.'s ability to re-sign Skubal, but there's every reason to believe the two sides can come to an agreement. The Dodgers wouldn't make this trade unless there was internal confidence in keeping Skubal around. Plus, if the Dodgers complete their three-peat, it won't even matter. Championships are the currency of sports; everything is in service of that.

For a moment, however, let's consider the downside, however silly it may sound. Hope is so much better than his status as "fourth-best outfield prospect in L.A.'s system" would suggest, mainly because he's probably better than a couple of those guys — and because he's still ranked No. 25 nationally, per MLB Pipeline.

Hope has plus tools across the board, with a refined plate approach and 20-20 potential. Ryan's age and injury history are valid concerns, but he is straight-up one of the most electric arms in the Minors right now. He could step into Detroit's rotation tomorrow and light up the radar gun and produce solid results. Brady Smith, more than a toss-in at 21 years old, is equipped with a nasty changeup and real mid-rotation upside.

What if the Dodgers, for one reason or another, can't actually keep Skubal beyond this season. What if another team dethrones L.A. in the playoffs? It's not like the Phillies and Blue Jays didn't tease the Dodgers' mortality in 2025. Prospects are never a guaranteed thing, but Hope and Ryan both figure to contribute in major ways for Detroit next season — and for many years to come. The Tigers' development staff is one of the best.

There's a world in which this far exceeds the usual return value for a rental, even one as dominant as Skubal. So we shouldn't write this off from Detroit's side, even if L.A. can afford the risk.

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