Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- The Atlanta Braves have dropped nine of twelve recent games, shrinking their division lead to 5.5 games and forcing a Wild Card berth if the playoffs started today.
- A key offensive contributor who started strong is now slashing below .200, while a once-dominant starter has seen his ERA balloon above 8.00 in recent outings.
- The team's highest-paid player is posting career-worst numbers at the plate, raising serious questions about whether the Braves can still contend without a turnaround.
For the first time this season, the Atlanta Braves are in a bit of a rough spot. They've lost nine of their last 12 games, seeing their division lead shrink to just 5.5 games in the process. Perhaps more frustratingly, the Braves now have the third-best record in the National League standings — meaning if the postseason were to begin today, they'd have to play a series in the Wild Card Round instead of earning a bye.
Drake Baldwin deserves a pass for his struggles, given that he's fresh off an injury, and it's hard to blame those who are currently injured for putting the Braves in a less-than-ideal spot. But five players in particular are getting increasingly difficult to defend amid Atlanta's skid.
DH Dominic Smith
Dominic Smith was a key offensive contributor for the Braves for the first bit of the season, posting a .912 OPS through his first 40 games. Since then, though, he's looked like a player who had to settle for a Minor League contract in the offseason, slashing .188/.253/.246 with one home run in his last 24 contests.
Smith should still get a bulk of the playing time at DH against right-handed pitching, given the injuries to Ronald Acuña Jr. and Sean Murphy and the lack of better alternatives. But once those two are back, it'll be tough to justify giving him much run given how he's played lately. It just isn't good enough for a lineup that is having its share of ups and downs right now.
RHP Bryce Elder
Speaking of key contributors, Bryce Elder was pitching as well as he had since 2023 to begin the year, posting a 1.97 ERA in his first 11 starts. His last five starts have been worrisome, though, as Elder has an 8.31 ERA in 26 innings pitched in that span, even allowing light-hitting offenses like the Mets and Red Sox to pummel him.
As is the case with Smith, the Braves don't really have a better alternative right now, with Spencer Strider, AJ Smith-Shawver, Spencer Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep all working their way back from injury, but it's tough to rely on this guy. Remember, Elder struggled mightily in both 2024 and 2025, and he's looking a lot more like that pitcher during this bad stretch for Atlanta than the one he was to begin the year.
Manager Walt Weiss
I hate to do this, because for the most part, I think Walt Weiss has done an awesome job in his first season managing the Braves. What I do have an issue with, though, is his bullpen usage. For whatever reason, Weiss is staying away from his premier relievers, and we saw that cost him in Tuesday's loss in San Diego.
Robert Suarez has pitched three times in 12 games since June 9. Didier Fuentes has pitched four times since that date, and one of those appearances saw him record just one out. Raisel Iglesias has pitched just four times since that date. Conversely, James Karinchak (who admittedly has looked good) has made five appearances, and Carlos Carrasco (who was just DFA'd again by Atlanta) has made three appearances.
Weiss is turning to guys who have spent more of the year in the Minors than the Majors more than his premier relievers. While I understand the importance of rest for bullpen arms, Weiss' management feels like overkill.
RHP Grant Holmes
Grant Holmes is another guy who got off to a great start, ending the month of April with a 3.62 ERA in six starts. Since the start of May, though, he has a 4.61 ERA and a 5.84 FIP in nine starts. He has gone beyond five innings just twice in this stretch, after doing so three times in his first six outings.
With all of their pitching injuries, the Braves needed Holmes, one of the few mainstays from their Opening Day rotation, to step up. But he's gone in the opposite direction. As is the case with Elder, it feels like he's holding onto his rotation spot solely because of the injuries. Once the deadline rolls around and/or the Braves get healthier, Holmes could and probably should be ticketed to the bullpen.
3B Austin Riley
As frustrating as the first four individuals in this list have been, particularly lately, can we have the Austin Riley discussion? Riley is the highest-paid Brave, as he's currently in the fourth year of a ten-year, $212 million deal. He has performed like the player they expected in a grand total of one of those years.
Riley deserved a bit of a pass for his underwhelming performance in 2024 and 2025 as he missed substantial time in both with injuries, but what's the excuse for this season? Riley is having easily the worst year of his career, pairing a career-low .643 OPS with a sky-high 29 percent strikeout rate. That mark is his highest in any year since 2019, his rookie season in which he played in only 80 games.
The Braves were fine in the first two months of the season without Riley producing much, but that was bound to catch up to them sometime. It has now, and man, does it hurt. For the Braves to reach their ultimate goal, they're going to need Riley to get going at some point. Braves fans have been patient enough.
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