Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- The Pittsburgh Pirates face a critical decision at the trade deadline that could define its franchise's next several years.
- The Pirates don't want to add payroll at the trade deadline, but Padres closer Mason Miller could solve their bullpen problems.
- If the Pirates plan to make the postseason, they could send this loaded trade package to the Padres in return for Miller.
The Pittsburgh Pirates blew another save on Saturday night. While the Pirates have one of the best lineups in the major leagues and a solid starting rotation to match, their bullpen is the sole reason they are not in possession of an MLB Wild Card spot. While trading for Mason Miller at the deadline sounds like a pipe dream for the Pirates and Ben Cherington, it cannot hurt to try. At this point, Pittsburgh is out of solutions on its current big-league roster.
To his credit, Cherington has tried to avoid the 'big' move that would cost him top prospects in the Pirates farm system. He added Brandon Eisert, previously of the Chicago White Sox, in a trade that included the No. 34 pick in the MLB Draft. We're not sure what's in the water in Pittsburgh (don't drink out of the Allegheny, I beg you), but it's become clearer by the day that the Pirates will have to swing big for bullpen help at the deadline if they're to finally make the postseason under Cherington's reign. If not, he, too, may be in search of a new job after the season.
What a Pirates trade package for Mason Miller would look like
For Pirates fans who have grown fond of the farm system Cherington has assembled the last few years, look away. This is sure to hurt, as Miller is under team control through 2029 and has already established himself as the best closer in baseball. However, rival execs told Bob Nightengale they expect Miller to be moved at the deadline. Thus, it'd be a criminal offense if Cherington didn't at least call AJ Preller for his asking price.
Should the Pirates make this trade? Probably not. I wrote as much a few days back. Adding Miller to this Pirates bullpen is a pipe dream in part because of how much he'd cost. Essentially, it is everything Cherington has built. However, this package does at least avoid Pittsburgh's two best prospects in Seth Hernandez and Edward Florentino.
Would the Pirates make this trade?
It goes against Cherington's model to trade both young, controllable MLB talent AND prospects for a player like Miller. Yet, I cannot stress just how bad the Pirates bullpen has been, especially at the back end. Pittsburgh has 19 saves this season and has blown 18 late leads. That is inexcusable, and it all goes back to Cherington's decision to spend $12 million on Marcell Ozuna instead of bullpen depth. The simple fact is this is what it'll cost to acquire Miller. Jones has top of the rotation potential. He's also fresh off an injury. Gray is a top-100 prospect by the skin of his teeth. Barco is a top-10 prospect in most systems, while Stafura has MLB potential but is also blocked in the Pirates system by Konnor Griffin and more middle infield depth.
If Pirates fans don't like it, then they shouldn't expect to add Miller at the deadline. Point blank.
Verdict: Likely not
Would the Padres make this trade for Mason Miller?
If the Padres do make Miller available at the deadline as rival executives expect, he could become the most-coveted player deadline asset. The Tigers seem intent on keeping Tarik Skubal for now, and they won't stop winning. The same can be said of the Red Sox and Aroldis Chapman. That limits the number of high-leverage arms available, and could start a bidding war for Miller, who would create a frenzy even under normal circumstances.
Sure, the Friars would love to get their hands on Hernandez or Florentino, but this package is the next best thing. Jones is a frontline starter who's had trouble staying healthy. Gray could help the Padres plan for life after Manny Machado. Barco and Stafura are legitimate MLB pieces down the line. Considering what the Padres gave up for Miller, this is what it might take to pry him from Preller's cold, dead hands.
Verdict: Probably!
Are the Pirates desperate enough to trade for Mason Miller?
I'd argue the problem with the Pirates front office has long been that they aren't desperate enough when the situation calls for it. Cherington has done an excellent job building one of the best lineups in baseball without expending much payroll. The same can be said of the rotation, which includes Jones. However, if the Pirates truly hope to contend and make a run in 2026, they need to take a big swing, especially in the bullpen.
That's what makes a recent report by Bob Nightengale all the more infuriating, as the Pirates plan to be aggressive at the deadline without increasing payroll. What does that even mean? The good news for Cherington is that Miller is still under arbitration, so he wouldn't greatly increase payroll by adding him to the mix. The bad news is what Miller will cost as a result. The trade package relayed above is just a hint. In that sense, Cherington has a choice: Should he part ways with the prospects he so greatly covets, or watch a floundering bullpen blow the best chance to keep his job?
Cherington has been with the Pirates since 2019. He took on a rebuild, and has largely done a fine job at that. The next step of that rebuild includes success at the MLB level. This is what it looks like, and it often means making tough decisions at the trade deadline. I don't envy him in that department.
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