These 5 contenders in the MLB Wild Card standings won't survive July

With just a week and a half remaining until the All-Star break, there's very little opportunity left for teams to make their case as contenders — and as worthy of buying rather than selling at the Aug. 3 trade deadline. Granted, the standings this year are so wide-open that a seeming record number of clubs can talk themselves into a playoff push, but it's hard for a front office to push their chips in when they're not confident of the hand they're holding.

The five teams on this list might not have that problem, at least. While they're in the postseason mix right now, there's good reason to believe they won't be come the end of the month when tough decisions need to be made.

Toronto Blue Jays

• 43-49, 3.5 games back of final AL Wild Card spot

Really, it's a minor miracle that the Jays have survived this long. Toronto has dealt with injuries up and down the roster from pretty much the moment the season began, a large part of the reason why they enter play on Wednesday at 43-49 with a run differential of -45. Of course, in this year's AL, that's only 3.5 games back of a playoff spot, but this simply has not been a team worth doubling down on at the trade deadline.

There's always a chance that the Jays claw their way back above .500 by the end of the month, at which point an always-aggressive front office will have the excuse they need to try and add. But this offense is in bad, bad shape right now, and an upcoming schedule of at Padres, vs. White Sox, vs. Rays, at Red Sox, at Nationals, vs. Cardinals doesn't inspire a ton of confidence. If this team falls back to, say, five or six games out of the Wild Card chase, they won't be getting the reinforcements they need.

St. Louis Cardinals

• 47-43, 2.0 games back of final NL Wild Card spot

Regression may finally be starting to set in for a Cardinals team that's now lost four in a row, including the first three of a huge four-game home series with the division-leading Brewers. Really though, this comes down to front office priorities as much as anything else.

St. Louis has done an incredible job just staying above .500 by this point in the year, considering that hardly anything was expected of them on Opening Day. That said, this is simply not a pitching staff that's ready for prime time just yet, and as the offense begins to regress a bit, it feels like it's only a matter of time before the losses begin to pile up. It's hard to see this team catching either the Phillies or Cubs, which means that they're essentially shooting for the third and final Wild Card spot. If they fall back to or even below .500 before August rolls around, don't expect Chaim Bloom to go chasing the No. 6 seed when he's in year one of what is still a multiyear build.

San Diego Padres

• 45-46, 4.5 games back of final NL Wild Card spot

You could argue that San Diego has already failed to survive July, but well, this team is still being run by AJ Preller. It'll be hard for even Preller to spin this, though: The Padres are 26-35 since the start of May and have lost nine of 11, struggling in just about every facet of the game. They remain within shouting distance of the playoffs, and Preller always gives his team the benefit of the doubt, but there's very little money or prospect capital left to work with — and really, investing more into this season would be borderline malpractice.

This team has shown zero evidence that it's capable of winning one postseason series, let alone multiple; they've got a -47 run differential that's way worse than their actual record. Borrowing from the future is just digging a hole even deeper for someone else to climb out of.

Minnesota Twins

• 45-47, 1.5 games back of final NL Wild Card spot

This one is likely to be controversial, given that the Twins have been among the better teams in baseball of late and are now knocking on the door of a playoff spot. Again, though, this is not a front office that will be naturally inclined to buy aggressively at the trade deadline. And I'm skeptical that the good times will keep rolling, as an offense that has carried the team recently now adds Byron Buxton to the IL alongside Ryan Jeffers.

It's certainly possible that Minnesota continues to ride guys like Cody Clemens, Trevor Larnach and Taj Bradley, at least long enough for Buxton and Jeffers to return to the fold by the end of the month. The schedule for the rest of July isn't overly imposing. I just don't think this is a particularly good team, and while mediocrity might be good enough in the current AL, I'd bet on the Astros and Red Sox making a push before I bet on the Twins. They're definitely more likely to add help at the deadline.

Pittsburgh Pirates

• 47-45, 3.0 games back of final NL Wild Card spot

This one is also harsh, as the Pirates have won three in a row and are a winning team with a healthy run differential. The National League isn't nearly as forgiving as the AL, though, with really just one playoff spot up for grabs among a bunch of teams. And Pittsburgh's upcoming schedule is hardly forgiving: two more against the Braves, seven against the Brewers and series against the Guardians, Yankees and Cubs.

The Pirates have enough talent on paper to be a playoff team this season. But losing Konnor Griffin to the IL alongside Oneil Cruz and Spencer Horwitz is a real blow, and Jared Jones, Mitch Keller and Bubba Chandler simply haven't pitched up to their reputations. They feel more likely to fall down the standings than climb up.

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