We're officially down to an MLB postseason final four, with the Los Angeles Dodgers, Milwaukee Brewers, Tampa Bay Rays and the Cleveland Guardians as the only teams left with a shot at winning the World Series title. Getting this far is a tremendous accomplishment that teams shouldn't take lightly, but as we all know, hoisting the Commissioner's Trophy is the ultimate goal.
With that being said, which of the four teams left has the best chance of doing so? Let's dive in.
4. Cleveland Guardians
The Cleveland Guardians deserve so much credit for overcoming a 2-0 deficit against a White Sox team that looked primed to go on a special run to advance to the ALCS. It's easy to see the path forward for this team, too, as they can really pitch, and Jose Ramirez is swinging the bat as well as he has all year.
However, is Ramirez going to come through with clutch extra-base hits every game the rest of the way? Is Gavin Williams going to be as dominant as he was against a flawed White Sox team? Can the rest of this Guardians lineup really be trusted? The Guardians are better than they're given credit for, but it's hard to trust a lineup that ranked 24th in runs scored in the regular season, and it feels like this bullpen, which has been brilliant but overworked, is going to break down at some point, likely in the ALCS.
3. Milwaukee Brewers
Am I underrating the Milwaukee Brewers? Perhaps. This is a really good baseball team. They won a league-leading 103 games, and do so many things well. They're fundamentally sound defensively; they run the bases well; they put the ball into play; they have a deep bullpen, and the duo of Jacob Misiorowski and Logan Henderson is as good as it gets in the NL. With that being said, there're a couple of reasons why they're only No. 3 on this list.
First, their lack of slugging is an issue. Now, if William Contreras continues to rake, they might be fine, but Milwaukee hit the fewest home runs in the National League in the regular season. They're a fantastic regular season team in spite of that, but the postseason is a different beast. Stringing enough hits together against elite pitching is incredibly difficult. Brewers fans know this given how things have gone for them in October in recent years.
I mean, just last season, the Brewers scored a total of four runs in four NLCS games against a Dodgers team that didn't even have Tarik Skubal. That leads me to my second reason. At some point, the Brewers need to prove they can get over the hump. They're a very good team, but until they give me a reason to believe, it's hard to do so.
2. Tampa Bay Rays
Much like the Brewers, the Tampa Bay Rays don't hit for much power beyond Junior Caminero, and that could hold them back. However, much like the Brewers, Tampa Bay makes a lot of contact, plays strong defense, and can really pitch. Drew Rasmussen doesn't generate the headlines Jacob Misiorowski does, but he's a legit ace, and Bryan Baker might've been the best closer in the AL this season.
I think the Rays and Brewers are fairly comparable, but the reason why I have Tampa Bay above Milwaukee is that their Championship Series matchup is much easier. In order to have a chance to win it all, you have to get to the World Series, and I trust the Rays to get past the Guardians more than I do the Brewers to get past the two-time defending champs.
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
Speaking of those defending champs, how can I objectively pick against them at this point? Are the Los Angeles Dodgers beatable? Certainly. Shohei Ohtani isn't at his best right now, and while they were able to eliminate the Braves in four games, they only scored 14 runs in that four-game set.
Still, the Dodgers' rotation feels pretty unbeatable, with Tarik Skubal, Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow all healthy. Their bullpen is better than you think, especially with this version of Edwin Diaz. And while their offense has struggled, it's not like they can't wake up and dominate on that side of the ball, too. There aren't many, if any, really major weaknesses, and the Dodgers having the experience edge should only help them.
To be the champs, you've got to beat the champs, and until the champs go down, I'm going to continue picking them, for better or for worse.
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