The New York Yankees have been playing catch-up to the Tampa Bay Rays virtually all season. Tampa currently holds the top spot in the AL East standings (and the No. 1 seed in the American League) with an 84-57 record, four games ahead of the 80-61 Yankees.
And yet, the Yankees own the best point differential in the American League by a significant margin — +114 to Tampa's +46. There's more to analyzing a contender than point differential, but the Rays are more flawed than their record suggests. Moreover, a recent deluge of injuries to the pitching staff has Tampa in an especially vulnerable position.
Rays' pitching staff is running on fumes
One of the many reasons for Tampa's success this season has been their consistency on the mound. Even with Ryan Pepiot out for the year after hip surgery, Tampa has received ace-level contributions from Drew Rasmussen and Shane McClanahan, while Nick Martinez — a modest, one-year free agent signing — punched a ticket to his first MLB All-Star Game. Griffin Jax and Ian Seymour both made successful transitions from the bullpen to the rotation, while their deadline pick-up of Freddy Peralta read, at the time, like a stroke of genius.
Fast forward to September, however, and McClanahan was just sent to the 15-day IL again for left forearm tightness. McClanahan missed two full years with Tommy John surgery, so naturally the Rays are worried about a lingering soreness in the elbow.
Griffin Jax returned from a month-long absence last week and promptly gave up seven hits, two walks and six runs (three earned) in 2.2 innings. His 3.82 ERA belies a few red flags under the hood, with a 4.57 expected ERA and a tendency to surrender hard contact.
Martinez, a career-long swingman who flourished as a full-time starter early in the year, quietly has a 4.65 ERA over his last five starts. He's 5.2 innings shy of a new career high in innings pitched; it's fair to wonder if he's running low on fuel.
Peralta has made six starts for the Rays, with a 4.86 ERA and 27 strikeouts in 33.1 innings. He has put together back-to-back quality starts, with a combined one earned run allowed in 12.0 innings, but the overall résumé this season is extremely dire. There's little reason to believe Peralta can be trusted down the stretch.
Even on the bullpen front, the Rays are in trouble. Manuel RodrÃguez — who did not debut this season until Aug. 24 after elbow surgery — just hit the IL, again, after four appearances due to a back strain. He joins veteran southpaw Garrett Cleavinger, who's dealing with forearm tightness.
The hope for Tampa is that McClanahan can return in time for October and the Rays can muster the collective strength necessary to power through the finish line. In reality, however, Tampa's rotation was always held together by Elmer's glue, reused tape and a bit of luck. It could get dark, fast.
Yankees are primed for a strong finish
This has been an incredibly odd and frustrating season for the Yankees, and yet — on paper — it's hard not to dub them favorites to win the American League.
It starts, ironically, with their pitching staff. Whereas Tampa is running out of gas, the Yankees' rotation is led by a 25-year-old Cy Young frontrunner in Cam Schlittler, who's pitching his first full MLB season. Max Fried, Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón all missed time this year, but they're all healthy now, looking fresh and looking increasingly like themselves.
Tampa probably holds an edge on the bullpen front, but this Yankees offense is built different. And that's despite a months-long talent void brought on by incalculable injuries. New York leads the American League in home runs (193) and their three-time MVP, Aaron Judge, has not played since May. As it so happens, Judge is expected back as soon as New York's upcoming homestand against the Rockies, which starts on Sept. 8.
The Luis GarcÃa Jr. trade has paid off; he's up to five home runs with an .823 OPS since arriving in the Bronx at the deadline. Jazz Chisholm Jr. quietly has a .957 OPS over his last 10 games, now up to an AL-best 40 stolen bases, to boot. He's figuring it out. Ben Rice is emerging from his slump. Against all odds, Spencer Jones is a real bat in the heart of the order.
Once Judge is back in the mix, this Yankees lineup is going to feel mighty different. The talent has not always shown up in the results this season, but New York still has 80 wins and the fifth-best run differential in the majors despite plenty of setbacks and disappointments. Factor in a lights-out rotation, and the Yankees are probably the best team in the American League, not to mention the division.
The margin for error in Tampa Bay, simply put, is paper thin.
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