Yordan Alvarez and 3 more reasons it's time to take the Astros seriously as World Series contenders

The Houston Astros are locked in a competitive postseason race. Despite their middling 60-59 record, they currently sit first place in the AL West, with a half-game lead over the Texas Rangers and a four-game lead over the Seattle Mariners. Seattle once felt like the on-paper favorites to win this division, but their campaign — already defined by turmoil and disappointment — is turning for the worse, somehow.

Houston has the most momentum on their side, and a 1.5-game lead over Detroit in the Wild Card race should another West team catch up. While the Astros have struggled to achieve past glory since Dusty Baker's retirement, there's reason to believe this team could surprise some folks down the stretch. It's hard to call them "underdogs" with all their talent and experience, but that is exactly the position Houston finds itself in. Let's dive into a few reasons why Joe Espada's club has a real shot at this thing.

Yordan Álvarez

The MVP debate in baseball is not the same as in the NFL, and especially not the NBA. While an MVP can single-handedly drive contention in basketball (see: Joel Embiid), there's a nonzero chance Yordan Álvarez wins American League MVP honors by a landslide while his team misses the playoffs entirely. There's only so much a single player can contribute on the field, especially in Álvarez's case. He's almost strictly a designated hitter these days, meaning he's not coupling his offensive production with value added as a defender (or base-runner).

All that said, Álvarez's immense talent still gives Houston a major edge. If all other factors are equal, he will be the best player on the field in a given series. Álvarez is up to 35 homers and 86 RBI on the season, slashing .322/.435/.624 (1.060 OPS) with a 188 wRC+. He leads the AL in literally every single one of those categories.

There's nothing fake or noisy about it either. Álvarez's Baseball Savant page lights up in red. He's in the 100th percentile for expected average (.322), expected slugging (.689) and xwOBA (.465), which means that if anything, Álvarez is slightly underperforming his underlying metrics. Which is complete lunacy.

The 29-year-old lefty is the most refined, matchup-proof hitter in the sport right now. He does not swing at pitches outside the zone. He strikes out at only a modest 17.2 percent clip, with a quick, pinpoint swing that never feels off-kilter. If there's a single healthy superstar in the American League who can swing a game or two in his team's favor, it's Álvarez.

An ascendant bullpen

Josh Hader missed the first couple months of the season, but the veteran southpaw has done nothing but shove since his return. He has a 1.08 ERA and 0.80 WHIP with 36 strikeouts in 25.0 innings; if he qualified, he'd rank near the top of MLB in both hard-hit rate (26.5 percent) and whiff rate (38.2 percent), which means, in the simplest of terms, that hitters are struggling to put the barrel to the ball.

Houston's bullpen was bleeding runs early in the campaign, but Hader alone has provided quite the stabilizing force. The Astros are also getting a lot of mileage out of Steven Okert, who's enjoying something of a late-career renaissance in his age-35 campaign. Okert has a 2.20 ERA and 0.87 WHIP with 59 strikeouts in 57.1 innings, which gives the Astros two blue-chip, high-leverage lefties in the late innings.

Finding a dominant righty to pair with their two brilliant southpaws has been more of a challenge, as Bryan Abreu has struggled to keep baseballs in the park despite his elevated K rate. Still, Abreu has the experience, the résumé, to maintain faith. He was exceptional during Houston's most recent World Series run in 2022.

Enyel De Los Santos has been more of a back-end reliever for the majority of his career, but his 4.07 ERA this season belies his considerably sharpened stuff. Tatsuya Imai, if he doesn't sneak into a starting role come October, has showed a bit of promise in a bulk reliever role lately. He tossed three no-hit innings with five strikeouts a week ago. His backwards slider, when he's able to locate it, remains one of the most unique and baffling pitches in baseball.

Miguel Ullola has struggled to catch on as a starter in the Minors, but Houston's No. 11 prospect according to MLB Pipeline has a big fastball that could play exceptionally well in shorter relief stints, which seems like the natural path forward at this point.

Houston could've done more to fortify its bullpen at the deadline, no doubt, but with Hader pitching like he's in his prime and a few less-heralded arms rising to the occasion, it could become a sneaky strength for the Astros in October. Especially considering the rampant bullpen issues in New York, Chicago and with other AL contenders.

The power

The Astros rank second in the American League (and third in MLB) in home runs, with 161 total. Only the Nationals (171) and Yankees (164) have more. New York is still without Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, two of its most potent right-handed bats. The Nationals won't even make the playoffs at their current pace.

While there are several factors that go into making a team competitive in October, power is the great equalizer. It can help mitigate pitching concerns. It can compensate for a higher strikeout rate. Nothing swings the momentum of a game quite like the long ball.

Álvarez is obviously a huge reason for Houston's slugging success this season with his 35 home runs, but he's not the only Astro making loud contact.

Houston has an experienced, expensive and most of all talented lineup. There are no shortage of question marks with this team, but it's easy to envision the Astros slugging their way through a series or two.

The American League standings

The current American League standings strongly favor Houston as a potential No. 3 seed — or even a No. 6 seed.

Look, being the No. 1 or No. 2 seed and securing a first-round bye is a huge advantage. It automatically advances your team a step closer to the World Series. In baseball, anything can happen. The playoffs are unpredictable by nature.

Remove the Astros from the equation for a moment, though. The three "best" teams in the AL are Tampa, New York and Boston, in whichever order suits you. Those three teams are all concentrated on one side of the bracket. If the season ended today, the Yankees and Red Sox would duke it out in the Wild Card round, with Tampa awaiting the winner. Those teams own the three best overall records in the American League.

Houston would face the extremely vulnerable Rangers, a familiar foe against which the Astros are 9-4 this season. If Texas wins the division and Houston still grabs a Wild Card spot, it's the same matchup, with the seeds reversed. Regardless of which team gets home field in that series, the math probably favors Houston.

From there, the Astros would advance to face the No. 2 seed White Sox, whose lone All-Star in an extremely weak and inexperienced rotation is Davis Martin. Martin has allowed 14 runs in 12 innings over his last three starts. For all the excitement around the young, upstart South Siders, it's hard to imagine them lasting long in a five-game series given how dire their pitching situation is.

There's still a lot of season left, but assuming the Rays, Yankees and Red Sox all maintain their current pace, the Astros wouldn't need to worry about facing an AL East powerhouse until the ALCS — after, presumably, the team they face has spent one or two series in a bare-knuckle brawl with their other AL East counterparts.

Houston is the favorite against Texas, Chicago and probably any other Wild Card threat. New York, Boston or Tampa are all more fearsome challengers, but winning one difficult series, rather than two or three, is a far more enviable task.

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