It’s easy to give C.J. Stroud the benefit of the doubt. After all, he doesn’t have great weapons around him right now with Nico Collins and Tank dell Hurt, he doesn’t have a consistent running game to fall back on and he's struggling to handle pressure once again. The Cincinnati Bengals, while giving up 353 passing yards, got to Stroud five times on Sunday, sending the Houston Texans to an 0-2 start. Based on how the first two weeks have gone for Houston, Stroud is going to get a lot of the blame.Â
Justified or not, this is what happens when you gamble on yourself. Stroud turned down a $50 million per year average contract from the Texans this offseason. The two didn’t come to an agreement before the year began, so now talks are stalled until next spring. And when you want to make upwards of $60 million, you don’t get to use the offensive line problems as an excuse — the more money you make, the more you take away from roster-building.Â
Bryce Young has finally turned into a franchise quarterback as well. On the flip side, Baker Mayfield has proven exactly why franchises are hesitant to pay every player their asking price.Â
How Bryce Young’s 2026 season will impact C.J. Stroud’s contract
The Texans are looking at how Carolina has handled things with Young and realizing they don’t have to rush at all to pay Stroud. Young is off to the best start of his NFL career this year. For his first three seasons, pundits questioned whether he was good enough to be a starting quarterback in the NFL and if he would survive in Carolina. Stroud is facing those same questions this year.
The Texans already picked up Stroud’s fifth-year option and have two more years to franchise tag him if they still can't agree on a long-term deal. Carolina and Young didn’t even make it a priority to look at an extension this offseason. The club needed to see more from him before committing long term. The Panthers front office also needed to see what Young’s value actually is. Last year, Carolina reached the playoffs for the first time under Young. This season, they’re proving they’re good enough to get back.Â
As for Stroud, well, his career has taken the opposite path. He came in and immediately led Houston to the playoffs in his first season. They’ve been every year since, yet they’ve never made it past the divisional round. That wouldn’t be a problem if Stroud had actually progressed; the problem is he’s kind of plateaued, culminating in last year's disaster in New England. In turn, all he’s doing is proving why the Texans are wise to be patient in extending. And if he’s not doing that, Baker Mayfield certainly is.Â
How Baker Mayfield’s extension proves patience is important
Mayfield’s game against the Cleveland Browns was supposed to be a chance for him to prove his old team made a mistake in giving up on him — and that Tampa Bay was right to pay him $55 million per year this offseason. Instead, he got outplayed by Deshaun Watson, who hadn’t won a game in two years, and brought on a heap of criticism about that extension. This is exactly why the Texans have all the leverage, and why they have every reason to wait as long as possible before extending Stroud.Â
Why would Houston put themselves in a questionable cap position to extend Stroud? Clearly the offensive line is a problem. The money the Texans front office would give Stroud would take away from improving this roster. Giving him $60 million per year also doesn’t get him any closer to having better receivers. The Texans probably feel more confident that they can win with an average quarterback and improved roster without paying Stroud.Â
Through two games, Stroud has done nothing but prove that paying him just isn’t worth it. That $50 million per year deal he turned down looks like a bargain to him now. Unfortunately, he lost that leverage. He needed to get his deal done early like Mayfield. If he was going to wait, he needs to play like Young currently in.Â
Stroud is in contract purgatory. He can get out, but he might not like the number on the other end. That’s the duality of gambling on yourself. In his case, it was a bad beat.
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