The NFL standings mean very little this early in the season, but it's hard to write off immediate success — and it's equally hard to hand waive early struggles, even when history tells us that so much can and will change in the months ahead.
Success rate in the NFL quantifies which individual offensive plays are, well, successful. If the offense achieves at least 50 percent of the yards required to move the chains on first down, 70 percent on second down, or 100 percent on third down, it is successful (h/t Action Network). Here's how the standings stack up, according to that metric. The division leaders might surprise you.
AFC East
Team | Record | Success % |
|---|---|---|
1. Buffalo Bills | 2-0 | 48.76% |
2. New York Jets | 1-1 | 46.67% |
3. New England Patriots | 1-1 | 41.67% |
4. Miami Dolphins | 0-2 | 36.79% |
Not real surprises here. The Bills are clearly the most explosive offensive team in the NFL through two weeks, scoring a combined 77 points so far. The defense is equally disastrous and will need to tighten up if Buffalo wants to seriously contend, but it's hard to bet against Josh Allen on a given Sunday.
The Patriots enter the season with Super Bowl expectations, but a tough early schedule punched them in the mouth. We shall see if New England can punch back. The execution from Drake Maye and company has not been up to par. The Jets look remarkably solid with Geno Smith at the commands, however. And the Dolphins, god bless, are going to really struggle. Malik Willis has all the talent but zero help.
AFC North
Team | Record | Success % |
|---|---|---|
1. Baltimore Ravens | 1-1 | 55.83% |
2. Cleveland Browns | 1-1 | 39.42% |
3. Cincinnati Bengals | 2-0 | 37.70% |
4. Pittsburgh Steelers | 1-1 | 33.59% |
Despite an upset loss to New Orleans in Week 2, the Ravens boast the highest success rate in football so far. Baltimore's new-look offense under Declan Doyle looks sharp, with a healthy Lamar Jackson making all the difference. Doyle comes from the Ben Johnson tree in Chicago, so it should come as no surprise that Baltimore is thriving on that side of the football.
It really feels like the NFC North is a two-horse race. It's much too early for such definitive statements, but Cleveland's win over a floundering Buccaneers team in Week 2 carries little weight, while the Steelers barely eked out a Week 1victory over the Cooper Rush-led Falcons. Cleveland's defense no longer has the overwhelming talent to offset an offense weighed down by Deshaun Watson, while 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers looks much closer to retirement than Pittsburgh would like.
AFC South
Team | Record | Success % |
|---|---|---|
1. Jacksonville Jaguars | 1-1 | 51.35% |
2. Tennessee Titans | 0-2 | 45% |
3. Indianapolis Colts | 0-2 | 42.24% |
4. Houston Texans | 0-2 | 39.74% |
The Jaguars looked every bit a Super Bowl contender in Week 1 against Cleveland before Denver's staunch defense put the clamps on Trevor Lawrence in Week 2. We don't fully know which version of Jacksonville will show up week to week, but the Jags are talented enough to comfortably pace the division in this category. Liam Coen remains one of the brightest playcallers in the sport.
It's a bit surprising to see the Titans ranking so well considering just how limp the offense has felt, but Cam Ward's not untalented. Tenessee moved the football well against a strong collective from Philadelphia in Week 2; whether the Titans can execute in the red zone and generate enough explosive plays to stay out of the NFL basement, however, remains to be seen. The Colts and Texans are both far below where they need to be; the pressure is mounting, especially for Houston QB C.J. Stroud as he fights for a few contract.
AFC West
Team | Record | Success % |
|---|---|---|
1. Kansas City Chiefs | 2-0 | 48.97% |
2. Las Vegas Raiders | 1-1 | 38.58% |
3. Los Angeles Chargers | 0-2 | 38.05% |
4. Denver Broncos | 1-1 | 37.74% |
All it took was two weeks for Patrick Mahomes to look completely himself post-ACL surgery. The Chiefs offense looks completely revitalized after a couple rocky seasons, in no small part due to Kenneth Walker's electric production out of the backfield. The Chiefs are more balanced between the run and the pass, with a stout offensive line. Kansas City is very much back in the Super Bowl conversation, it seems.
As for the rest of the division? Well, the Raiders are 2-0 but it's not the most commanding or believable 2-0. Klint Kubiak clearly has Vegas trending in the right directon, but stiffer competition lies ahead. The Chargers lost to two expected bottom-dwellers (the Cardinals and Raiders) and might need cosmic intervention at this point. The Cardinals looked great against L.A., but were promptly smoked by an elite Seahawks defense in Week 2.
NFC East
Team | Record | Success % |
|---|---|---|
1. Dallas Cowboys | 1-1 | 50% |
2. Washington Commanders | 0-2 | 46.27% |
3. New York Giants | 1-1 | 44.72% |
4. Philadelphia Eagles | 2-0 | 40% |
The Cowboys are perfectly capable of putting points on the board; this we already knew. The defense remains a source of concern through two weeks, however. Injuries are starting to pile up and the improvements we heard about all summer are unmanifested. The Cowboys' offense needs more support to keep the division crown within reach.
The Commanders and Giants both lost their quarterbacks in Week 2, with New York's Jaxson Dart done for the season. That raises alarm bells. The 2-0 Eagles rank dead last, but the Sean Mannion era is nonetheless off to a promising start. Jalen Hurts' late-game poise and execution against the Titans in Week 2 showed exactly why he has experienced so much postseason success. The man always rises to the occasion.
NFC North
Team | Record | Success % |
|---|---|---|
1. Detroit Lions | 1-1 | 48.15% |
2. Chicago Bears | 1-1 | 42.86% |
3. Minnesota Vikings | 2-0 | 38.39% |
4. Green Bay Packers | 1-2 | 37.78% |
It's unclear if all four NFC North teams are dangerous or deceptively average at this point in the season. The Lions have split a pair of shootouts, while the Bears and Packers are both more than capable of generating explosive plays on offense. All three teams have clear shortcomings on defense, however.
The Vikings are the opposite. Carson Wentz has filled in adequately for the injured Kyler Murray, while Brian Flores' blitz-happy defense is wreaking absolute havoc. But can the Vikings score enough against more serious competition? The Bears lost Caleb Williams in Week 2 and rolled over; their Week 1 win over the Packers said more about Green Bay's defense than Minnesota's offense.
NFC South
Team | Record | Success % |
|---|---|---|
1. Carolina Panthers | 1-1 | 46.72% |
2. Atlanta Falcons | 1-2 | 45.79% |
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 0-2 | 44.74% |
4. New Orleans Saints | 1-1 | 43.33% |
The Panthers, Falcons and Buccaneers all rank in the top half of the league in success rate (with the Saints not far behind, ranked 17th). So the NFC South, despite their reputation, actually stacks up well in this category early on. Bryce Young in particular deserves a ton of credit; Carolina ranks second in total scoring with 71 points through two weeks. The former No. 1 pick is finally starting to live up to the hype.
Atlanta's numbers are no doubt inflated by their commanding Week 3 victory over Green Bay on Thursday Night Football. The Falcons offense was stuck in the mud for two weeks with Cooper Rush at the commands, but Michael Penix's return from injury breathed new life into Bijan Robinson and Drake London, who both put up 194-plus yards against a flimsy Packers defense.
NFC West
Team | Record | Success % |
|---|---|---|
1. San Francisco 49ers | 2-0 | 54.87% |
2. Los Angeles Rams | 1-1 | 48.72% |
3. Seattle Seahawks | 2-0 | 44.35% |
4. Arizona Cardinals | 1-1 | 40.34% |
The 49ers look like the team to beat right now. That's always fluid this early in the season, especially for a team as cursed injury-wise as San Francisco. Brock Purdy is electric and the Niners are executing at an extremely high level on both ends. Really the entire division (minus Arizona) deserves commendation, however.
The Seahawks are 2-0 with the same killer defense that delivered a Super Bowl last season. Drew Lock has looked right at home replacing the injured Sam Darnold. The Rams were in a jet laggy daze Week 1 in Australia (credit to San Francisco's travel planner), but Week 2 was more of what we expected from the most talented roster in the NFL. Matthew Stafford, even at 38, is the reigning MVP. The Rams will put up plenty of points before the year is out.
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