NFL Stat of the Week: The Raiders have an Ashton Jeanty problem

Welcome to the Stat of the Week, where we use advanced metrics to uncover the trends, performances and strategic shifts shaping the NFL season.

When the Las Vegas Raiders selected Boise State star Ashton Jeanty with the No. 6 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, it was expected that head coach Pete Carroll, and offensive coordinators Chip Kelly and Greg Olson, could build their offense around the 5-foot-8, 211-pound back, who ran the ball 374 times for 2,601 yards and 29 touchdowns in his final collegiate season. It didn’t work at all for multiple reasons: Carroll never got hold of his offense, which was led in part by offensive line coach and son Brendan Carroll, and the concepts put forth by Kelly, and by Olson after Kelly was fired on November 23, didn’t do Jeanty any favors. 

At the end of his rookie season, Jeanty had run the ball 266 times for 975 yards and five touchdowns. His yards per carry of 3.67 ranked 61st in the NFL among backs with at least 50 carries, his yards after contact per carry of 3.19 yards ranked 31st and his total rushing EPA of -64.43 wasn’t just the NFL’s worst — it was the NFL’s worst by a distressing margin. Bucky Irving of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers had the league’s second-lowest total rushing EPA at -37.54.

Still, people were inclined to give Jeanty a mulligan for his first NFL season, and for good reason in an entirely dysfunctional offense. The hire of former Seattle Seahawks offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak as Carroll’s replacement portended a great deal of improvement, and overall, that has been the case. The 3-1 Raiders have already won as many games as they did last season, and they were very close to their first 4-0 start since 2002 when they lost a 30-27 squeaker to the Kansas City Chiefs last Sunday. 

The improvement has certainly shown in the passing game. The Raiders selected Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza with the first overall pick in the 2026 draft, but Mendoza hasn’t seen the field at all in the regular season. Instead, veteran acquisition Kirk Cousins is tied with Brock Purdy of the San Francisco 49ers for the league lead with 11 touchdown passes, and a Raiders team that ranked 30th in passing DVOA last season now ranks 14th. 

NFL Stat of the Week: Ashton Jeanty's Rushing EPA of -21.5 is the NFL's worst

• Jeanty has posted an ugly Rushing EPA of -21.5 so far this season, lowest among all running backs
• Jeanty also has the NFL's most negative runs with 10

The run game is a bit more precarious. The 2025 Raiders ranked dead last in rushing DVOA, and while they currently rank 11th, very little of that has to do with Jeanty, whose rushing DVOA of -28.3 percent is one of the worst for qualifying backs — and much worse than the -14.7 percent DVOA he put up in 2025. The back who has held the higher standard for Vegas this season is fourth-round rookie Mike Washington Jr. with his +1.1 percent rushing DVOA. That doesn't make him the next great running back, but at least it’s above league average. 

Jeanty has simply failed to make the most of the improved ecosystem around him. This season, he has 264 rushing yards on 78 carries for a 3.38 yards per carry average, 2.63 yards after contact per carry and his total rushing EPA of -21.5 is again the NFL’s worst. 

While Jeanty showed all kinds of suddenness, vision and cutback ability in college, those attributes have not transferred to his NFL work. More often than not, Jeanty is running into contact as opposed to out of it and away from it. That is not a recipe for success, and it’s a big reason he currently leads the NFL with 10 negative runs. 

Right now, Washington appears to have much more of a knack for creating positive plays out of potentially negative results, which is a requirement for any running back. Washington is quite simply showing the qualities that Jeanty isn’t. 

It’s possible that Jeanty is still affected by the sprained ankle he suffered in practice in the preseason, but if that’s the case, why is he getting so many more carries than Washington is? 

“I'm going to continue to keep getting better and stronger,” Jeanty said after the Chiefs loss about the ankle. “It's getting stronger, and I feel like I'm going to be 100 percent real soon.”

Regarding the slow start overall, Jeanty had this to say: 

"I think we've just got to be better. Simple as that. Make the plays that are out there; they're there. It starts with us. Starts with me. Got to break tackles and just make bigger plays when they're available." 

It’s all a bit mystifying for a back who had so much going for him before the draft. When I asked Bijan Robinson in February, 2025 if he agreed with my Robinson comparison, Robinson said that he did, and that he had already watched Jeanty’s tape. I also watched tape with Jeanty himself about a year ago, and I remain as impressed with the potential as I've ever been. 

The problem is the difference between potential and production in the NFL. Right now, Jeanty is on the wrong side of it. Until and unless that changes, the resurgent Raiders have one issue that is still a hangover from 2025’s lost season.

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