Through two weeks, 16 of 32 NFL teams are even in the standings at 1-1. With 17 games on the schedule, teams can't actually finish .500 without a tie, which is rare. And this early in the season, surface-level appearances are often deceptive. A tough schedule can leave a quality team looking vulnerable, while the opposite can provide false hope to a perennial loser.
Let's go team by team to determine which .500 clubs can finish the season in the green, and which teams are bound to flame out eventually.
AFC East
New England Patriots: Above .500
The Patriots won ugly against a limp Steelers offense, but their Week 1 meltdown against Seattle was far more memorable — and far more indicative of how this season could unfold. New England has the 10th-hardest remaining strength of schedule after coasting to 14 wins against cupcake competition a year ago.
That said, the AFC champs are still anchored by an elite Mike Vrabel defense, while Drake Maye is the reigning MVP runner-up for a reason. Better days lie ahead for the third-year quarterback, especially once A.J. Brown returns from the IR. This was a messy offseason for New England off the field and the vibes are considerably worse because of it, but New England should still compete for a postseason spot and potentially the division crown.
New York Jets: Under .500
Let's keep this short and sweet. The Jets' defense looks totally revamped through two weeks, and Aaron Glenn deserves major credit. The offense has also experienced fairly smooth sailing with Geno Smith under center. At the end of the day, however, it's the Jets. Beating the Titans in 2026 is hardly an accomplishment, while this organization has an unparalleled track record of crash and burn. The Jets might not be the worst team in the NFL again, but it's hard to picture them as a winning football team — especially with a tough schedule ahead.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens: Above .500
At the end of the day, dumping John Harbaugh was the correct decision, even if bittersweet. Baltimore punked the Colts in Week 1 and hit a speed bump against the Saints in Week 2, but (spoilers) New Orleans is better than its reputation suggests. Lamar Jackson is healthy and he looks himself, while Baltimore's defense figures to hover at least above league average with Jesse Minter calling the shots.
The AFC North has proven tough and competitive over the years, but the Ravens are built better and deeper than any other team. They should win the division unless Cincinnati's defense has truly turned a corner.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Under .500
The Steelers haven't finished below .500 in 22 years, but that streak ending as soon as Mike Tomlin departs would be the most predictable outcome ever. That's not to say letting Tomlin walk was the wrong decision, but hiring Mike McCarthy to replace him almost certainly was. McCarthy's an accomplished offensive play-caller but he's also antiquated, as is his former Super Bowl co-champion Aaron Rodgers.
Pittsburgh's defense has looked stout through two weeks but their league-best numbers (-0.26 EPA per play) are no doubt inflated by facing Cooper Rush and the Falcons in Week 1. It just so happens that the Steelers' offense ranks 31st through two weeks, ahead of only those very same Falcons. Rodgers is well and truly cooked, and Pittsburgh's playmakers aren't picking up the slack. This team will not score enough to win football games on a regular basis.
Cleveland Browns: Under .500
We don't need to state the obvious here. Deshaun Watson was surprisingly sharp and productive in the Browns' Week 2 victory over Tampa Bay, but Cleveland's quarterback situation remains dire. This offense will not execute on a weekly basis and the defense is no longer the superhuman force of yore now that Myles Garrett has departed. Expect the Browns to finish near the bottom of the standings, per usual.
AFC South
Jacksonville Jaguars: Above .500
The Jaguars are the only AFC South team with a win under their belt so far. Houston and Indianapolis are better than their 0-2 records suggest, but the Jags could benefit from a softer division. Moreover, Jacksonville was top-10 in both defense and offense last season, and should sustain those high standards in 2026. This is a very talented football team on both sides.
Consistency has never been a strength for Trevor Lawrence, but the former No. 1 pick is toolsy in the extreme, with a head coach who clearly understands how to utilize him in Liam Coen. The wide receiver room is underrated and Bhayshul Tuten should carry a successful rushing attack. The Jaguars are simply much too well-rounded, with much too solid an infrastructure, to finish with more losses than wins.
AFC West
Denver Broncos: Above .500
Denver opened the season with a sobering loss to Kansas City, in which the offense fell flat. New play-caller Davis Webb came under immediate fire, but the Broncos righted the ship in Week 2, unseating a quality Jaguars team while Bo Nix threw for 288 yards — with newcomer Jaylen Waddle reeling off 138 receiving yards, a dramatic improvement over his two-yard performance in Week 1.
This is a classic example of why Week 1 means very little in the grand scheme of things. Week 2, on its own, does not necessarily mean a ton either, but it was more in line with the Broncos team that dominated the division a year ago. Denver's elite defense alone should secure a winning record and a spot in the postseason picture.
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys: Above .500
The Cowboys entered the season with Super Bowl hype, which has never gone wrong before. Hold on ... I'm getting word that it has gone wrong before. Alas, Dallas was embarrassed in Week 1 by their division rivals from New York. A bounce-back Week 2 win over the Commanders, in which Dak Prescott and Dallas' supercharged offense fired on all cylinders, brought the temperature down a little bit.
Dallas probably won't win the Super Bowl, as we all know deep down, but this is an extremely explosive offensive team. Arguably the best in the NFL, point blank. If the defense achieves even moderate success, Dallas will win plenty in the regular season and challenge Philadelphia atop the division.
New York Giants: Under .500
New York's rousing Week 1 victory over Dallas — a surgical dismantling of "America's team" — quickly lost its luster after a blowout loss to the Rams on MNF in Week 2. Jaxson Dart is now done for the season, with major knee surgery on the docket. That puts Jameis Winston in the spotlight, where success has been hard to come by for the former No. 1 pick. Winston is better than your typical backup QB, and there's plenty to like about the Giants supporting cast. But this division is unforgiving and Dart is not the only cornerstone with an injury history.
Expect New York to slowly fade from contention as the season progresses. John Harbaugh was won a bunch in the regular season over the years, but he just was not dealt a winning hand this year. New York is no longer an abject disaster, but the Dart injury removes any hope of a meaningful leap in 2026.
NFC North
Detroit Lions: Above .500
The Lions are a failed Saints two-point conversation in overtime from 0-2, but Detroit has also scored a combined 62 points through two weeks. This offense is as electric as ever. The defense has not carried its weight, but New Orleans and Buffalo are two especially potent offensive teams. There are easier matchups on the horizon.
Detroit actually has a tough schedule, which is partially due to the strength of its division. The entire NFC North finished above .500 last season and a similar fate could await in 2026, with four quality football teams beating up on each other. Still, even with a daunting road ahead, the Lions are much too talented to endure a losing season.
Chicago Bears: Above .500
After dropping 59 points on Carolina in Week 1, the Bears' offense came down to earth with a three-point stinker in their Week 2 loss to Minnesota. Now, Caleb Williams is hurt, which could mean third-stringer Case Keenum is hung out to dry against the Eagles defense on Monday night in Week 3. Chicago's defense remains a huge limiting factor, but methinks this offense will produce more explosions than duds in the weeks ahead, assuming Williams is not sidelined long.
The Bears might be the most lopsided and volatile team in a dog-eat-dog division, while last season's postseason berth was the product of unsustainable dominance in the clutch. Still, it's hard to watch Ben Johnson postgame speeches and not believe wholeheartedly in the Bears' project.
Green Bay Packers: Above .500
If the Bears' defense is an Achilles heel, the Packers' defense is at least a sore hamstring. Jordan Love and that offense can put points on the board, this we know, even if the first two weeks weren't the most robust display. The defense, however, figures to once again hover below league average. Head coach Mike LaFleur's late-game decisions are already under the microscope, too. That storyline won't disappear any time soon.
The Packers are probably too explosive to finish with a losing record, but then again, this division is a gauntlet and it's hard for all four teams to finish above .500 back-to-back. If there's a vulnerable team from this division (other than the 2-0 Vikings, who still have more to prove), it's Green Bay.
NFC South
New Orleans Saints: Above .500
The Saints were my pick to win the division coming into the season. It's the NFC South, so it may only take eight or nine wins, but New Orleans certainly looks the part of a fresh-minted contender. Tyler Shough needs to get the football out quicker, but the arm talent plays and he's operating with a ton of confidence. Kellen Moore, who helped to guide Philadelphia to a Super Bowl two years ago, clearly knows what he is doing.
New Orleans was also quietly a top-10 defense last season. New Orleans has gotten into a couple shootouts to begin the year, but this is a deceptively balanced team. Given how weak the division is, there's no underdog bet I feel better about than the Saints winning nine-plus and hosting a playoff game in the Superdome.
Carolina Panthers: Under .500
The Panthers put up 37 points in their Week 1 loss to Chicago and 34 points in a Week 2 blowout of the Falcons, so no NFC South team has looked better — at least on paper — than Carolina. That said, the Panthers' defense shan't get credit for stopping Cooper Rush and Jack Strand. We can similarly offer a pass for getting boat-raced by Ben Johnson and the Bears, but the latter carries more weight in the conversation right now.
How does Bryce Young look against a serious defense? Can Carolina's defense get enough stops to help Young survive the inevitable comedown? There are all valid questions. Dave Canales is a good coach and the Panthers overperformed last season, competing with real gumption in clutch situations and ultimately winning the division ... with a sub-.500 record. Perhaps the NFC South is not so disastrous this year, but if only one team is winning material, I'd currently place my bet on New Orleans.
NFC West
Los Angeles Rams: Above .500
The Rams were blown out of the water in Week 1 in Australia. They looked suspiciously like an older team that had flown halfway around the world less than 48 hours prior to kickoff and were thus fatigued both mentally and physically. Then, like magic, with a few days of solid rest and their bodily clocks reset, L.A. put a beatdown on the Giants in Week 2, powered by an elite defense that did not seem to miss the injured Myles Garrett all that much.
We know L.A. is the most talented team in the NFL on paper. Matthew Stafford is coming off of an MVP campaign and he looked more like an MVP in Week 2. The Rams have their warts, but this team will win plenty in the regular season.
Arizona Cardinals: Under .500
The Cardinals' surprise Week 1 win over the Chargers was probably more the result of L.A.'s incompetence than of Arizona's unaccounted for excellence. A blowout loss to Seattle in Week 2 appeared to confirm that theory. The Cardinals are basically hoping to tread water with Jacoby Brissett this season before drafting their new franchise QB in 2027. That plan did not change when Mike LaFleur got his first win sooner than expected. It's a long season and the Cardinals will quickly fade.
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