Predicting the Vikings final QB depth chart as J.J. McCarthy's stock keeps falling

The Minnesota Vikings are stuck between a rock and a hard place when it comes to the quarterback position. While naming Kyler Murray was the correct and inevitable decision, it creates an onslaught of unwelcome media speculation around the future of former No. 10 pick J.J. McCarthy.

It will be extremely difficult for the Vikings to do what's best to win football games without sacrificing optics. This team stuck by McCarthy through an injury gap year as a rookie and did nothing but hype him up in 2025 training camp, only for the Michigan product to utterly and completely bomb. Now, McCarthy has made it clear that he views himself as an NFL starter, but Murray has the job — and McCarthy's ongoing struggles in the preseason could push him even further down the Vikings' depth chart.

Projected Vikings QB depth chart with Kyler Murray, J.J. McCarthy and Carson Wentz on divergent paths

Whether the Vikings want to admit it or not, Minnesota is probably done with the McCarthy charade. Kevin O'Connell has football games to win; last season's 9-8 finish and subsequent at-home postseason viewing experience was a travesty for such a talented roster. This team still has Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson, Aaron Jones and Jordan Addison in the clubhouse, not to mention Juaun Jennings coming off of a career-high nine touchdowns in San Francisco and other upstarts like Tai Felton making waves on the 53-man fringe.

Minnesota missed the playoffs with a top-four defense last season (-0.11 EPA per play). The NFC North is a murderer's row, with Chicago, Green Bay and Detroit all pining for a Super Bowl. The Vikings can ill-afford to get cute with their quarterback room, try to salvage McCarthy's nonexistent value, and end up stuck in the NFL basement.

Carson Wentz has clearly earned the Vikings' QB2 job

Carson Wentz is a former No. 2 pick with plenty of baggage, but it was not Minnesota that invested in him so high. In fact, Wentz is now 33 years old and five teams removed from his messy breakup with the Eagles. And while that breakup was indeed messy, it has turned out to be the exact right decision for Philadelphia. The Vikings can learn a thing or two about knowing when to move on.

The Vikings don't necessarily have to trade McCarthy for pennies on the dollar. He still has another year on his rookie contract and QB development is rarely linear. For all his struggles on the field, it would be disingenuous to call McCarthy untalented. Unrefined, perhaps. But he can clearly make difficult throws and weaponize his athleticism on broken plays. He simply trips over his own two feet, metaphorically speaking, too often for those tantalizing flashes to materialize into anything productive.

Wentz made five starts for the Vikings a year ago, completing 65.1 percent of his passes with six touchdowns and five interceptions. McCarthy completed only 57.6 percent of his throws with 11 touchdowns and 12 interceptions in 10 starts, with a 66.5 percent on-target rate — compared to Wentz's 73.9 percent. Wentz created 0.01 EPA (or estimated points added) per play, meaning he was basically an average, replacement-level QB. McCarthy was actively harmful by comparison with -0.15 EPA per play.

Even the preseason tape heavily favors Wentz, who simply operates with an air of poise and experience that McCarthy's more frenzied, haywire approach can't come close to matching. McCarthy completed 5-of-10 passes for 81 yards in their 13-3 Week 2 loss to Baltimore. He got 50 yards on an awesome deep connection to Tai Felton, but was otherwise held at bay, including this wide-open whiff in the end zone on fourth-and-goal.

Wentz completed 9-of-11 passes for 92 yards. He was far from spectacular, but he kept the chains in motion and avoided self-inflicted errors. While McCarthy has the capacity for those big, game-breaking completions down the sideline, the benefits are seldom felt when he so consistently undermines his positives with completely avoidable negatives.

J.J. McCarthy's path forward with Vikings

If Kyler Murray flames out early in the season — still a very real possibility — Wentz can far more effectively stabilize the offense and execute O'Connell's playbook when compared to McCarthy. The Vikings, again, need not trade McCarthy at the lowest point of his value, but keeping him out of the spotlight and letting him work on the basics with second- and third-team units in practice is probably the best thing for him. McCarthy needs to be relieved of any immediate pressure and put the expectations of a top-10 pick behind him.

The Vikings can ignore the noise and put McCarthy on a strict training regimen in the background, with Murray and Wentz there to dispense veteran wisdom. Or, if the Vikings do truly want to start fresh, trading McCarthy is not the worst-case outcome. He can still net a high Day 3 pick, in all likelihood.

Plenty of teams need bullets in the QB room, and there's endless evidence to support the dream of locating a better option than McCarthy in the fourth or fifth round — or simply using that pick on depth elsewhere and burning their 2027 first-round pick on another promising youngster in the deepest, most talented QB class in recent memory. The Vikings won't pick high enough for Arch Manning, but names like Trinidad Chambliss and Drew Mestemaker come to mind as viable, mid-to-late first round options.

Either way, the Vikings need for put a pin in McCarthy's starting ambitions and make sound football decisions. And the football deicison is Wentz as QB2, with McCarthy relegated to a distant third string until he either proves himself worthy of more, or gets dealt.

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