The first domino has fallen. Bijan Robinson inked a historic, three-year, $75 million deal with $51 million guaranteed, making him the highest-paid running back in NFL history. This shouldn’t be a surprise, especially when you look at what Robinson means to the Atlanta Falcons; it shouldn’t be a surprise at all he was compensated accordingly. With his new deal, though, it means the next bunch of running backs are on the clock.Â
The most prominent running back due for a pay day is Jahmyr Gibbs. Earlier this week, Detroit Lions coach Dan Campbell said he’s optimistic a new deal will get done but is focusing his attention on the players that are at practice — Gibbs has been holding in amid a new contract. Here’s who else is due for a pay raise after Robinson’s historic deal.Â
Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions
It’s not a matter of if Gibbs will get paid — it’s when. The Lions have too many defensive problems to let their offense take a hit too. If Robinson is the best running back in the NFL, Gibbs is 1B; that’s how good he is and has been in Detroit. Gibbs and Robinson have nearly identical stats since they were drafted. Gibbs’ production hasn’t been nearly as good as Robinson’s, but that’s largely because he was splitting snaps with David Montgomery the last three years and definitely the last two during his breakout.Â
Montgomery is in Houston now and Gibbs is the feature back of this offense. Expect him to produce just like Robinson has. Last year, Robinson had more than 2,200 yards from scrimmage and over 10 combined touchdowns. Gibbs hasn’t had a season with 2,000 scrimmage yards yet. That’s no knock on Gibbs considering the offense the Lions have, but it's proof why the Lions are in a bit of a bind.Â
The Lions may be forced to either match Robinson’s contract or play close to it. I don’t think Gibbs will reset the market because Robinson’s production has been better. It doesn’t mean the Lions won’t have to cut a lucrative check either.Â
Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts
Jonathan Taylor is an interesting case here. He had one of the best seasons of his NFL career last year and is due for an extension after this season. The problem is he’s creeping toward 30 years old and paying him like Robinson is a massive risk, considering he’s probably going to start declining in the next couple of seasons. Even crazier is the Indianapolis Colts have a lot of money tied up in Daniel Jones and Alec Pierce right now too. Adding Taylor to their payroll is a big ask.Â
Taylor is probably worth closer to Saquon Barkley as of right now — which is still $20.6 million per year. He’s worth paying that, but the Colts may not be willing to pay it. This season will determine how much he’s valued next offseason. If Taylor looks like he did a year ago, he will absolutely get close to Robinson’s number, which means the Colts probably will let him hit free agency.
Zach Charbonnet, Seattle Seahawks
Zach Charbonnet doesn’t have a lot of leverage simply because he’s coming off a late-season, ACL injury. That said, if Jadarian Price doesn’t look like the long-term answer Seattle needs in the backfield to start the season, the Seahawks may be forced to extend him. They let Kenneth Walker III walk this free agency after his Super Bowl MVP landed him a big pay day with Kansas City.Â
If Charbonnet doesn’t come back as explosive or is a backup option for the Seahawks to Price, Seattle might have some leverage in negotiating. He might be affordable for Seattle and give them a backfield similar to what they had with Walker and Charbonnet. That said, it’s still too early to know if Charbonnet will get an extension and how much it will be worth. The Seahawks would be wise to wait out his recovery period, but not wait too long, just in case he comes back with more explosiveness.Â
Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals
It’s no surprise the Bengals prefer to replenish their roster through the NFL Draft rather than pay their stars their due. That’s how they got into a running back conundrum to begin with. They didn’t want to pay Joe Mixon so they turned to middling veterans and the draft. Chase Brown has become a centerpiece of this offense outside of the receiving core. Brown is a great receiver out of the backfield, which plays right into Joe Burrow’s strengths.Â
The Bengals are going to drag his extension out as long as possible because that’s typically how they operate. They’re going to lowball Brown until they feel the pressure to concede. After Robinson’s extension, the Bengals shouldn’t entertain playing hardball. If he proves to be too valuable to let walk, it’s in their best interest to get the deal done earlier rather than later.Â
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