MLB Awards Predictions: Best odds for 2026 MVP, Cy Young and more undecided races

There are fewer than three weeks left for the likes of Pete Crow-Armstrong, Yordan Álvarez and others to put the finishing touches on their MLB awards cases. Most of the major races are still close enough for this final stretch to impact voting. Recency bias is always a factor here; how you finish typically matters more than how you start, whether it should or not.

Let's dive into the latest odds, courtesy of ESPN, and break down which races could take a surprise turn.

American League MVP odds

There's really no competition here, with all due respect to Junior Caminero. The Rays third baseman has 39 homers and a .905 OPS for the projected top seed in the American League, but Yordan Álvarez has dragged a flawed Astros roster to the brink of a division win. He's the most complete hitter in MLB right now, able to blend light-tower power with extreme discipline and advanced contact skills.

Âlvarez is flirting with a Triple Crown, tops in the league in average (.311), on-base percentage (.428) and slugging (.593) to go with 38 home runs and 95 RBI. The Astros would be lost at sea without Álvarez's consistent brilliance in the heart of the order.

Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. quietly has the next-best résumé, but Kansas City simply hasn't won enough.

National League MVP odds

This was a debate once upon a time, but Cubs outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong has run away with the NL MVP award over the last couple months. It would be a different conversation, perhaps, if Shohei Ohtani were a full-time pitcher, but injuries have limited the Dodgers' two-way star to 14 starts and 85.2 innings pitched. He's still a singularly dominated force at the plate, with a .902 OPS and 143 wRC+, but PCA clears him in virtually every category.

Crow-Armstrong is the rare true five-tool superstar. He's up to 41 home runs and 36 stolen bases with a .948 OPS and 158 wRC+. He has hit for both average (.281) and power, while also providing the most defensive value of any player in MLB with 25 OAA — a Gold Glove shoo-in in center field.

American League Cy Young odds

This is a two-horse race between Cam Schlittler and Dylan Cease. There's a strong argument in either direction. Cease leads the American League in strikeouts (227) and looks damn near unhittable when he's commanding his pitches. In terms of absolute ceiling, Cease's probably reaches higher than any AL pitcher.

That said, Schlittler has the edge in ERA, WHIP and fWAR, as well as starts and innings pitched. He has a 2.01 ERA with 220 strikeouts in 178.2 innings, and the Yankees are a much better team overall. His case is becoming airtight. There are aesthetic and "eye test" traits favor of the Blue Jays' ace, but with how the MLB awards body tends to calculate its votes, Schlittler has emerged as the clear frontrunner.

Missing from this list: Cleveland rookie Parker Messick, who'd be third on my personal ballot.

National League Cy Young odds

There's a real discussion to be had here, but there's zero doubt Jacob Misiorowski is going to win the NL Cy Young award. His stuff is too electric and the results back it up, with a 1.95 ERA and 0.80 WHIP. His 236 strikeouts leads the Majors in 161.1 innings of work, all for the first-place Brewers.

Chris Sale is No. 2 in the odds, and it's hard to argue with a 2.10 ERA and 1.01 WHIP while leading the charge for a top-three team in baseball. That said, Phillies aces Cristopher Sánchez and Jesús Luzardo deserve a bit more love. Sánchez is an absolute workhorse and is currently second (5.9) to Misiorowski (6.0) in fWAR. Sánchez has looked fatigued down the stretch, but Luzardo has been the best pitcher in baseball since the All-Star break and he's a hair ahead of Sale in fWAR (5.5 to 5.4), with 37 more strikeouts in 28.2 more innings pitched.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto is phenomenal — a stone-cold killer — but he's probably No. 5 on my ballot.

American League Rookie of the Year odds

Munetaka Murakami would be front and center in this debate if he didn't miss June with a hamstring injury. Alas, the race really boils down to Tigers infielder Kevin McGonigle and Guardians ace Parker Messick.

Conventional wisdom tells us that McGonigle, with the slight advantage in fWAR (4.8 to Messick's 4.4) and the cachet of a position player at a premium position, will take home the hardware. McGonigle flashes all five tools, with discipline beyond his years at the plate. His ability to work deep in counts, leg out extra-base knocks and occasionally dial up the power has kept an otherwise inconsistent Tigers lineup afloat for long stretches this season. He has a sturdy .792 OPS and 16 home runs, playing solid defense at third base.

That said, Messick is the best pitcher on a potential Wild Card team, with a 2.53 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. He's up to 173 strikeouts in 167.0 innings. The 25-year-old southpaw features uncommon poise and command for a first-timer; I find myself wondering if he would be leading this race if he pitched in a more glamorous market.

National League Rookie of the Year odds

This is by far the strangest list of odds. Reds first baseman Sal Stewart is the leader in the clubhouse for what feel like outdated reasons. He's up to 31 home runs with an NL-leading 107 RBI, but I feel like we've moved past awarding guys for those context-dependent categories. All three players behind him in the odds have higher WAR and more complete profiles.

McLean has been downright elite these last couple months, with a razor-sharp 3.06 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 28 starts. He's a legitimate frontline ace. Wetherholt is the best defensive second baseman in MLB on top of his .713 OPS and 104 wRC+, although you could ding him for injuries and a recent slump at the plate. Benge is an elite defensive outfielder hitting for power (16 homers) and average (.274). The numbers aren't quite as flashy as Stewart's, but you can credibly argue that Benge impacts the game in more ways.

This is not to say Stewart, who's a very refined and fearsome hitter, does not deserve Rookie of the Year. But this is very much a situation where all four players have credible cases, and it's far less lopsided than the betting market suggests.

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