MLB history says only the White Sox and these 13 teams can win the World Series this year

Anyone who has watched professional sports knows that projecting that the Los Angeles Dodgers, Atlanta Braves, or New York Yankees will win the World Series based on their first-half records is a fool’s errand. 

Yes, the Dodgers have a loaded roster, and the Braves boast an immensely dangerous lineup. But there’s far more to their championship chances than citing them beginning the second half atop their respective divisions.

Major League Baseball last expanded in 1998, and there’s been an intriguing trend among World Series winners since then. Outside of the 2003 Marlins, every World Series winner has finished in the top 13 of at least two of the following categories: winning percentage, run differential, and Wins Above Replacement. 

(This also means that the Rays and Diamondbacks are rapidly approaching 30 years of existence. How that’s possible, I couldn’t tell you.)

As of July 17, there are 13 teams that meet at least two of those three requirements. We’ve separated those teams into two groups: those that rank in the top 13 across all three categories, and those that can say they’re currently two out of three. I’m using Baseball-Reference’s Wins Above Replacement metric because I personally prefer it to FanGraphs’ system. 

Additionally, I’ve organized each team by winning percentage. 

The Dodgers and Yankees headline the heavyweight contenders

As of July 17, the following teams rank among the top 13 in winning percentage, run differential, and Wins Above Replacement:

Most of the names near the top aren’t overly surprising, but how about the Marlins and Pirates working their way into the World Series mix? Both teams are poised to buy at the trade deadline, though whether they’ll be uncharacteristically aggressive remains to be seen. The Marlins are only four games back in the NL East, so we suggest they move quickly.

Keep your eye on the White Sox, too. They’re tied with Cleveland (more on them shortly) atop the AL Central, and the surging Twins have moved within three games. Things could get very interesting within the coming weeks.

The Red Sox and Tigers have a chance at the World Series? Yes, they do

As of July 17, the following teams rank among the top 13 in two of the three categories: winning percentage, run differential, and Wins Above Replacement.

It makes you wonder what would have happened had the Red Sox and Tigers not gotten off to such poor starts. Boston is 10 games out in the AL East, so the Wild Card is likely the Red Sox’s only path back to the postseason.

As for Tarik Skubal and the Tigers, they’re 6.5 back of the White Sox and Guardians. Of course, we’ll need to see whether Detroit opts to sell at the deadline, especially with Skubal set to hit free agency this winter.

The Mariners are 1.5 games behind the Rangers in the AL West, and the Astros have also snuck back into the mix. Now would be a great time for veteran catcher Cal Raleigh and his measly .581 OPS to prove that he’s not a one-year wonder. 

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