These storylines will define the MLB playoff picture in the second half

The 2026 MLB All-Star Game has come and gone, with Yankees outfielder Cody Bellinger leading the American League to a 4-0 victory on Tuesday night. Bellinger’s heroics followed Cardinals rising star Jordan Walker’s Home Run Derby victory over Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber.

Following an off day on Wednesday, the second half begins with a nationally televised showdown between the Mets and Phillies on Thursday night before the rest of the league returns to action on Friday. We have just over two months left until the postseason, and plenty of teams — especially in the American League — remain in the hunt. Here’s what you should be watching closely during the MLB season’s second half.

How ugly will the pre-lockout talks get?

Fewer than five months remain until the collective bargaining agreement expires at the end of this calendar year, and at this point MLB owners are expected to lock the players out rather than find a compromise. Phillies slugger Bryce Harper, who has emerged as the face of the players’ anti-salary cap stance, again made it clear during All-Star Weekend that the MLBPA will not accept a cap or the proposed changes to the draft.

Last summer, we heard about Harper’s heated confrontation with Rob Manfred in the Phillies clubhouse. Could we be in for a similar situation in the coming weeks? A lockout feels inevitable, and it’s hard to fault anyone now worrying about the 2027 season being either delayed or outright canceled.

There is no indication that players would initiate a strike or walk out before the season ends. We last saw a strike in 1994, which eventually resulted in the season’s cancellation.

Will we see Aaron Judge again this season?

Judge hasn’t played in over six weeks because of a rib injury, and he’s not expected to return to the Yankees anytime soon. The three-time AL MVP has yet to begin a rehab assignment, and management hasn’t provided an update as they await new imaging to assess the extent of his healing.

Without sounding dramatic, we’re nearing the point of wondering whether Judge will play again in the regular season. We should learn within the coming days how his latest round of imaging went. Knowing Judge, he’ll likely force his way back into the lineup in either late August or early September, slump down the stretch and be a home-run-or-bust player in the postseason. Then, the Yankees and their fans will defend Judge by pointing out that he was hurt.

I wonder what the other excuses are for the Yankees’ nearly 20-year World Series drought. 

Are Shohei Ohtani’s days as a two-way unicorn numbered?

For the first time in several years, Ohtani looks human. We’ve become so accustomed to him replacing Albert Pujols as “The Machine” that we forgot the four-time MVP is capable of being injured. Indeed, Ohtani did not participate in the All-Star Game because of a left knee injury.

Although the knee problem has not impacted Ohtani’s at-bats, he’s already been scratched from two starts. Considering that Ohtani has a 1.79 ERA and 2.9 bWAR just on the mound over 85.2 innings, you could understand why the Dodgers would want to ensure he’s ready to pitch in October. As for what Los Angeles could do to potentially replace Ohtani in the rotation, we’re glad you asked.  

If Tarik Skubal is traded, where’s he going?

For what it’s worth, I personally don’t think the Dodgers will trade for Skubal. Instead, they should target someone like Sonny Gray or Michael Wacha, if only because of what the Tigers might want in return for their star lefty. Granted, we’re talking about the Dodgers, so they may not care what they give up even if it's for a rental.

Detroit entered the All-Star Break only 3.5 games back in the AL Wild Card race, but things are so congested that we might not know if the Tigers are buyers or sellers for another couple of weeks. Keep your eyes on the Braves as a possible Skubal landing spot; Atlanta needs reliable starting pitching, especially to hold off the Dodgers and hard-charging Phillies.

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