Alright, here we go. Only four days are left in the MLB regular season, and much still needs to be determined over the next 100-plus hours.
For all intents and purposes, the two American League Central teams are playoff-bound. Whoever wins the division will get the No. 2 seed and a first-round bye, and the other earns a date with No. 3 Houston/Texas in the Wild Card Round.
Things are slightly more complicated in the National League. San Diego moved into the No. 4 seed on Wednesday night, but the Padres could easily still fall back down to No. 6.
The easiest way to keep tabs on how close teams are to clinching is by looking at magic numbers. The formula to calculate a magic number is as follows, per MLB.com:
- Games remaining +1 - (Losses by second place team - losses by first place team)
American League teams that already clinched a playoff spot
For those who need a refresher, the Tampa Bay Rays clinched the AL East just a few days ago, while the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox have secured AL Wild Card spots already. Frankly, the AL East is far and away the best division in the American League. The rest have some work to do, as neither the Central nor the West are determined.
Cleveland Guardians
- Magic number: 1
- Current playoff opponent: First-round bye
Tuesday’s victory over the Red Sox guaranteed the Guardians will finish with a winning record. Tough night for those around baseball who complained and cried about multiple teams with losing records possibly making the playoffs. The Guardians can clinch a playoff berth on Thursday with a win over the Red Sox or a loss by the Texas Rangers/Houston Astros duo, currently fighting for the AL West crown.
As things stand, Cleveland would open the ALDS against the AL West winner or No. 6 seed. Even without a Game 163, the Guardians and White Sox might not be done with one another after all.
Chicago White Sox
- Magic number: 1
- Current playoff opponent: No. 3 Astros
We told you it was too early to write off the White Sox! Wednesday’s 5-4 loss to the Royals nonetheless stings, and the South Siders remain one game behind Cleveland in the Central. Chicago looks to bounce back against Kansas City on Thursday before returning home for a final three-game set against the lowly Rockies.
Will Venable’s club is only one win from its first winning season since 2021. Let’s also not forget that Chicago holds the tiebreaker over Cleveland if both teams finish tied atop the division. The White Sox can clinch a playoff spot with a win or loss by the Astros/Rangers.
Houston Astros
- Magic number: 4
- Current playoff opponent: No. 6 White Sox
Really, the true magic number is two. Houston and Texas both entered Wednesday at 78-80, and we’ve never had a playoff team with a losing record, outside of the shortened 2020 season. The more chaos, the better!
Younger fans might not truly realize how bizarre an Astros-White Sox playoff series sounds. Some of us are old enough to remember these two battling in the 2005 World Series back when the Astros played in the six-team NL Central.
National League teams that already clinched a playoff spot
The Brewers, Dodgers and Braves have already clinched their respective divisions, and have been waiting on the rest of the National League's mess to sort itself out in hopes of preparing for the playoffs. The Brewers and Dodgers have all but secured Wild Card round byes, while the Braves will host one of the Padres, Cubs or Phillies.
San Diego Padres
- Magic number: 1
- Current playoff opponent: No. 5 Cubs
The Padres nearly clinched a playoff berth on Wednesday night thanks to losses by the Phillies and Cubs, but a Diamondbacks loss kept them from doing so. The Friars control their own destiny for the top NL Wild Card spot, which would mean hosting either the Cubs or Phillies.
Chicago Cubs
- Magic number: 1
- Current playoff opponent: No. 4 Padres
We’re looping these two together because they’re in the exact same situation. Chicago hosts Miami on Thursday night, and San Diego looks to take the rubber match of a three-game set. All signs point to a Cubs-Padres series at Petco Park next week. Chicago has lost two straight games to the Miami Marlins, making their fans wait to celebrate in the process.
Here’s what their respective weekend slate looks like.
Day | Padres' schedule | Cubs' schedule |
|---|---|---|
Thursday, Sept. 24 | At Los Angeles Dodgers (10:10 p.m. ET) | Home vs. Miami Marlins (2:20 p.m. ET) |
Friday, Sept. 25 | Home vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (9:40 p.m. ET) | Double-header at Boston Red Sox (1:05 p.m. ET; 6 p.m. ET) |
Saturday, Sept. 26 | Home vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (8:40 p.m. ET) | At Boston Red Sox (7:15 p.m. ET) |
Sunday, Sept. 27 | Home vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (3:10 p.m. ET) | OFF |
As of Thursday morning, Major League Baseball does not intend to move the Cubs-Red Sox series despite a potential nor'easter.
Out of curiosity, who do you immediately think of when the Padres and Cubs come to mind? Our pick is veteran catcher Michael Barrett, with Milton Bradley — the hot-tempered All-Star outfielder, not the board game manufacturer — right behind him.
Philadelphia Phillies
- Magic number: 2
- Current playoff opponent: No. 6 Braves
If the Phillies want to avoid their NL East rivals in the first round, then their best bet is to win out. Far easier said than done, we know, especially considering they play the Brewers on Thursday night and close the regular season with a three-game home set against the Rays.
What’s going on with Kyle Schwarber? He’s hit just .194 with 13 home runs and a .749 OPS in the second half. Although his .332 on-base percentage is still above the league average, it's down from .367 in the first half. What were we thinking when we predicted he’d clear 60 homers?
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