Yordan Álvarez is charging headlong toward the Triple Crown and his first AL MVP award. He leads the league in average (.323), on-base (.435) and slugging (.624). He leads the league in home runs (35), RBI (86) and total bases (269), not to mention other major offensive metrics like wRC+ (188). There is no more dangerous hitter in baseball right now. The Houston Astros star has effectively cracked the code, able to pair his immense power with a coordinated, precise swing and a highly disciplined plate approach.
We don't get many hitters like Yordan Álvarez. He's in once-in-a-generation territory right now. You can toss out names like Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge, but even if Álvarez isn't the single most productive bat of the 2020s (and he's not far off), he might be the single most refined. There are very few players who can hit for power, hit for average and work a count this way. But if you're looking for the "next" Álvarez, or at least the next-best thing, look no further than Kansas City Royals outfielder Jac Caglianone.
Jac Caglianone is on a superstar trajectory for the Royals
Caglianone was Kansas City's No. 1 prospect before his graduation last season. Lauded for his 70-grade power in the Minors, Cags appeared in 62 games as a rookie. It was a struggle, to say the least: He finished with a .532 OPS and 46 wRC+, not to mention -1.6 fWAR. Essentially, he was a sub-replacement hitter and defender, actively harming the Royals.
That created a bit of uncertainty coming into year two. Patience is a virtue, however, and Caglianone quickly overcame his rookie foibles to develop into an anchor near the top of the Royals lineup. He's up to 21 home runs and 52 RBI on the season, with an .806 OPS and 121 wRC+, which is almost a threefold improvement.
Better yet, the 23-year-old is on the upswing. He had four homers with a .685 OPS through May, falling into many of the same traps he did as a rookie. In 57 games since the calendar flipped to June, though, Cags has 17 homers with a .905 OPS. He has fully tapped into the considerable power his 6-foot-4, 205-pound frame creates.
It's not all home runs either. Caglianone has a respectable .266 average and an even better .278 expected average, in MLB's 88th percentile. He hits to all fields, with a compact swing that cuts across the plate like a bolt of lightning. He has a naturally wide strike zone, but Caglianone shows an ability to locate, reach and hit pitches all over the zone. Sometimes even outside the zone.
There are plenty of boom-or-bust home run guys in the Majors (see: Eugenio Suárez, Jorge Soler, Marcell Ozuna, etc.). That is not Caglianone. Like Álvarez, Judge and other giants before him, Caglianone has the contact skills and coordination to develop into a special all-around hitter.
How Jac Caglianone's development arc stacks up to Yordan Álvarez
There are some clear differences between Caglianone and Álvarez at this current moment. There are comparable natural power — both generate absurdly high exit velocities — but Álvarez swings at fewer pitches, makes more consistent contact and is able to translate his power into results more frequently. Álvarez has 14 more home runs in just seven more games and 33 more at-bats. Caglianone is also still in the outfield for now, while Álvarez has transitioned almost exclusively to DH.
Here is how their statistical profiles this season stack up:
Stat | Jac Caglianone | Yordan Álvarez |
|---|---|---|
xwOBA | .360 | .464 |
xBA | .278 | .332 |
Hard-Hit% | 55.4 | 53.8 |
Avg Exit Velo | 93.1 | 94.5 |
K% | 26.5 | 17.1 |
BB% | 6.3 | 15.7 |
The obvious discrepancies are strikeout and walk rate. Cags strikes out more and walks less. He speeds more time fishing out of the zone, while Álvarez has damn near perfected his approach. Not only will pitchers work around Álvarez, but he's extremely selective with the pitches he swings at. Álvarez waits for the pitcher to hang one in the zone and capitalizes at a prodigious rate.
Nothing happens overnight, however, and the Yordan Álvarez currently on Triple Crown watch is not the Yordan Álvarez of 2021, in his second (proper) MLB season. Both arrived in MLB at a similar age. Álvarez did not require the same adjustment period as Caglianone, but the latter caught up fairly quickly.
Álvarez's 2021 numbers bear an eerie similarity to Cags' year-two production. The Astros' then-secret weapon was striking out more (24.1 percent) and walking far less (8.4 percent). He still generated extremely loud contact and hit a bunch of home runs, but Álvarez's approach wasn't anywhere near as refined as it currently is.
That is why Royals fans can feel good about Cags' trajectory. He's already putting up video game numbers late in the season, but there's so much room left to grow. Caglianone is more of a line-drive hitter than Álvarez ever was — another critical difference — but he's already learning to elevate more often. Given his bat speed and plus-plus athleticism, there's no reason to believe Caglianone can't become a .300 hitter and 40-home run threat once he shrinks his hitting zone and starts working deeper into counts.
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