With the trade deadline in the rearview mirror, it's time to strap in for the stretch run of the 2026 regular season. And as the dust settles from a chaotic week, it's clear that ... well, it's clear that not much is clear around the league right now.
Playoff spots in both the AL and NL are completely up for grabs. Awards races are wide open, as multiple stars make runs at history we haven't seen in quite some time. More than any time in recent memory, it feels like anything can happen over the next six weeks or so.
And yet we're going to try and offer some predictions anyway. Will we have a Triple Crown winner? Which surprises will make — and miss — the postseason? Let's dive in.
Jacob Misiorowski becomes the first to crack 300 strikeouts since 2019
Misiorowski just became the second-fastest to 200 Ks in league history, but why stop there? He has a real chance to be the first pitcher to join the 300 club this decade.
It's basic math. Misiorowski is currently rocking an otherworldly 13.8 Ks per nine innings, and he's averaging just a tick over six innings per start. The Milwaukee Brewers will be closely monitoring his workload as he soars past his previous career innings high, but if he makes eight or nine more starts the rest of the way, that puts 300 firmly within reach.
Yes, it would require a Herculean effort; he'd have to average double-digit Ks per start over his final nine outings. Given that his K rate is approaching 50 percent since the All-Star break, though, do you really want to bet against him?
Yordan Alvarez wins the Triple Crown — across all of MLB
Alvarez holds a firm lead in batting average, five points higher than the Marlins' Otto Lopez and seven up on Luis Arraez. Given his quite frankly ridiculous ability to command the strike zone and make loads of contact to go with his prodigious power, I'm not betting against him finishing first there. And while he's currently third in MLB in RBI, the two guys ahead of him — Washington's CJ Abrams and Cincy's Sal Stewart — play on teams without much stakes for the rest of the season, so I'm willing to give him the inside track there as well.
All of which sets up what should be an all-timer of a home run race, with Alvarez and Kyle Schwarber tied for the league lead at 35 and Matt Olson, Junior Caminero and Hunter Goodman right behind at 34. It's entirely possible that any of those All-Star sluggers could deny Alvarez the first baseball-wide Triple Crown since Mickey Mantle in 1956, Alvarez is simply the most complete hitter in the sport right now.
The Phillies and Mariners both miss the playoffs
Really, this only feels bold if you've yet to update your priors since the start of the season. The Mariners enter play Tuesday having lost four in a row, now 4.5 games back of the Houston Astros in the AL West and with six teams standing between them and the final Wild Card spot. Appeal to the on-paper talent all you like, but it feels like if this team were going to go on a run it would've happened by now. This is simply too deep a hole to climb out of, especially with Houston and other AL contenders playing better of late.
Which brings us to the other half of this prediction, which is admittedly a bit spicier. But while the Phillies have turned things around a bit to start August, I have real questions about how Luis Arraez actually fits on this team, and the bullpen is running on fumes due to a lack of reliable options and Don Mattingly's aggressive usage. It's going to take a heroic effort from Schwarber, Bryce Harper and the big three starting pitchers to keep this team afloat as the Padres and D-backs storm up the standings, and a brutal closing stretch (19 of their final 25 games come against the D-backs, Braves, Astros, Brewers and Rays) won't help.
The Yankees finish third in the AL East
New York still clings to a two-game lead over the Red Sox for second place in the division and the top AL Wild Card spot, but that gap is feeling more and more tenuous by the day. Boston won't stay this historically hot forever, of course — hardly any team could. But the Yankees simply cannot score runs consistently, and that figures to remain the case until Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger and Giancarlo Stanton return.
The team continues to insist that all three will be back before the end of the season, but we're no closer to knowing exactly when. And in the meantime, despite the best efforts of what might be the best rotation in baseball, New York keeps giving up ground because driving in a run from third base with less than two outs feels like pulling teeth with this depleted lineup. The Yankees will still make it to October, of course, but until we get a more reliable update on their biggest bats, I don't think they can hang on to home field in the Wild Card round.
Pete Crow-Armstrong runs away from Shohei Ohtani in the NL MVP race
At this point, the writing on the wall seems to suggest that Shohei Ohtani won't be pitching for the Dodgers any time soon. And if you take his two-way prowess off the table, what you're left with is a DH — an elite DH, sure, but a DH all the same. Stack that up against the offensive and defensive contributions that Crow-Armstrong is bringing to the Cubs right now, and this MVP race seems to be pointing pretty clearly in one direction.
PCA is the easy leader in fWAR right now, and while Ohtani is hanging around if you include his pitching contributions, it doesn't seem like we'll be getting more of that any time soon. There's always a chance that one of the greatest players to ever live goes on a heater to close the year, but Crow-Armstrong is a complete player right now, and his combination of power and elite center-field defense will enough to dethrone the two-time reigning NL champ.
The Tigers win the AL Central
A midseason disappointment trades away the face of the franchise and arguably the best pitcher in the sport, only to suddenly rally and crash the playoff party anyway. How can you not be romantic about baseball?
There's still plenty of work to be done, but the Tigers are roaring right now, climbing to just a game back of the Rangers for the final AL Wild Card spot and 3.5 games back of the White Sox in the division. All due respect to Chicago, but I just do not trust this pitching staff down the stretch, especially after Chris Getz failed to obtain meaningful improvements at the deadline.
Detroit now boasts Framber Valdez, Troy Melton, Jackson Jobe and Keider Montero in a revamped rotation and a sneaky-good offense. There's a reason they have the best record and run differential in the AL outside of the month of May (in which Skubal got hurt and the season spiraled out of control), and now that they're back within striking distance, I think they're the best team on paper in the Central.
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