NL Wild Card standings by run differential: Phillies, Cardinals have a lot to prove

While the Milwaukee Brewers, Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers are perfectly positioned to win their respective divisions, the National League Wild Card race, as it's been all year, remains an absolute bloodbath. Even after the trade deadline, it feels like only three teams can be fully ruled out of contention, which sets us up for a riveting September.

Such a close race makes it tough to predict who will wind up walking away with a postseason spot, but one indicator people look at for a team poised to go on a run is run differential. Chances are, if a team scores many more runs than they allow, they'll be in a position to win a whole lot more games than they'll lose.

NL Wild Card standings

The NL Wild Card race remains incredibly tight, with all but three teams within 6.0 games of a playoff spot. Obviously, the odds are stacked against teams like the Washington Nationals, Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates at the back of the pack, but they're still technically in the hunt. The only team that feels somewhat safely entrenched in a Wild Card spot right now is the Chicago Cubs.

With such a close race to keep tabs on, again, something like a run differential could come into play. Teams with the best run differential could be best positioned to go on a winning streak and catapult into a Wild Card spot. With that in mind, let's take a look at the Wild Card standings based on run differential.

NL Wild Card standings based on run differential

The big takeaway from this is that while the Chicago Cubs are far and away the best team in the NL hunt, the rest of the Wild Card picture doesn't look like what you might expect. What's most interesting about the run differential standings is just how far down the list you have to go to find the teams that are currently in postseason spots.

The San Diego Padres and Philadelphia Phillies, occupants of the final two Wild Card spots, have essentially even run differentials. These should be taken with a slight grain of salt, as the Padres have played excellently for a sustained stretch now, and the Phillies' run differential includes when they were just 10-19 and playing horrifically bad baseball under Rob Thomson, but it's clear that both of these teams have clear holes and are far from perfect. Even a team like the St. Louis Cardinals, who have been in the thick of the race all year, has a negative run differential, giving reason to believe they don't have what it takes to fend off the field.

Another interesting thing to point out is that the next-best teams behind the Cubs based on run differential are the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Washington Nationals, teams with marginal chances at a Wild Card spot at best.

It's easy to see how Pittsburgh and Washington can go on runs. Once the Pirates get healthier (Oneil Cruz, Konnor Griffin, Ryan O'Hearn and Endy Rodriguez are all position players on the IL), they should score more runs, and their improved bullpen should have more luck when it comes to securing leads. As for the Nationals, they, too, are without their best player inJames Wood. Once he gets healthy, it wouldn't be shocking to see them win games given their (marginally) improved pitching staff and their elite lineup. Is it too little too late for these teams, though? That remains to be seen.

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