Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- As the MLB second half kicks off, we project the final 12-team postseason field, sorting out the division winners and wild card contenders.
- Powerhouses like the Dodgers and Yankees claim top seeds, while surprise teams like the Marlins and White Sox scrape into the final wild card spots.
- These projections highlight which front offices must act aggressively at the trade deadline to overcome injuries and secure their paths to October.
The All-Star break has come and gone, which means we are full-steam ahead for the second half of the MLB season. The postseason picture is clouded in both the American League and the National League right now, albeit for different reasons. There is an overabundance of winning teams in the NL and a dearth of proven contenders in the AL.
So, which teams will separate from the pack in the coming months? There's still a lot of baseball left to be played, but let's take a stab are predicting the final 12-team MLB postseason field.
National League postseason bracket
Home | Away |
|---|---|
1. Los Angeles Dodgers | FIRST ROUND BYE |
2. Milwaukee Brewers | FIRST ROUND BYE |
3. Philadelphia Phillies | 6. Miami Marlins |
4. Chicago Cubs | 5. Atlanta Braves |
1. Los Angeles Dodgers (NL West champ)
The Brewers have a real shot to catch L.A., especially once that pitching staff gets healthy, but the Dodgers won 61 games before the break without really breaking a sweat. The Dodgers' pitching staff will also get healthier, while the lineup remains an absolute tank. There is more promising talent coming up through the pipeline when gaps need to be filled, too.
It's boring, it's not what anyone outside L.A. really wants, but the Dodgers are the two-time reigning champs for a reason. Expect more of the same in the months leading up to October.
2. Milwaukee Brewers (NL Central champ)
Milwaukee has become a proper regular season juggernaut. Whether any of it translates to the postseason remains to be seen, but Jacob Misiorowski and Kyle Harrison are a dominant one-two punch on the mound. The Brewers aren't sluggers by nature, but their lineup's collective IQ is unmatched. Milwaukee hits to all fields, operates with patience in the batter's box, and just finds ways to pass the baton. Their ability to get frisky on the base paths is another feather in the Brewers' cap.
Teams that will so frequently in the margins don't always have the best track record in October, when every team tightens the screws and games often boil down to one or two momentum-swinging plays. Still, the Brewers are very talented and they play the game the right way.
3. Philadelphia Phillies (NL East champ)
The NL East has four legitimate contenders right now, which was unexpected as recently as mid-June. But with Atlanta on an extended slide, the pathway to another NL East crown is wide open for the Phillies. We can nitpick Philadelphia's roster into oblivion, from a paper-thin rotation to a lineup with three everyday hitters, but the collective star power of Cristopher Sánchez, Zack Wheeler, Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper — plus their recent track record of strong second halves — is enough to project the Phillies to once again claim home-field advantage in the first round.
4. Chicago Cubs
Chicago was a real roller-coaster team in the first half of the campaign, but in terms of pure talent, the Cubs stack up about as well as any non-Dodgers team in the National League. Health will be the prevailing storyline down the stretch. With Ben Brown and Edward Cabrera on the IL, Chicago's rotation is threadbare these days. How aggressively Jed Hoyer operates at the trade deadline could go a long way toward establishing the North Siders as a proper contender.
Another major storyline: Pete Crow-Armstrong's MVP push. He basically collapsed after the All-Star break a year ago. This season, he started slow and hit his stride in June and July. If PCA can keep ascending, that sure will help Chicago lock in a playoff spot.
5. Atlanta Braves
The Braves are all sorts of banged-up. The rotation, which started the season so strong, has run into all sorts of problems over the last month. Aside from Chris Sale, it's hard to point to a Braves starter you'd feel great about in a postseason setting. The lineup also needs a wake-up call. The Dominic Smith magic dust has worn off and Ronald Acuña Jr. is back on the IL. We haven't seen his best stuff in years either.
That said, in terms of overall talent and upside, the Braves still might be L.A.'s greatest challenger. Let's see if Atlanta can get back on track.
6. Miami Marlins
The NL Wild Card race is extremely crowded right now. The Pirates and Cardinals are real-deal threats, while the Padres are still a talented team with sleeping giant qualities. If the Diamondbacks can add a pitcher or two at the deadline, the 2023 NL champs shouldn't be counted out either.
At the end of the day, however, it's hard not to feel bullish about these Marlins. Miami finished last season incredibly strong. There is a dirty-work mentality to that group. The Fish are probably a couple years away from actually making noise in October, but punching their ticket to the Wild Card round is fully within the realm of possibility.
American League postseason bracket
Home | Away |
|---|---|
1. New York Yankees | FIRST ROUND BYE |
2. Cleveland Guardians | FIRST ROUND BYE |
3. Seattle Mariners | 6. Chicago White Sox |
4. Tampa Bay Rays | 5. Boston Red Sox |
1. New York Yankees (AL East champ)
The Rays are the best story in the American League this season, but the Yankees are clearly the most talented team — and the most viable World Series contender, if all the stars align. Health will be a question mark down the stretch, but if Aaron Judge, Max Fried and Carlos Rodón and Giancarlo Stanton can all get back and get right for the final months, New York will probably strong-arm its way into pole position.
2. Cleveland Guardians (AL Central champs)
The White Sox are America's team at this point and a division crown is well within reach. Unfortunately, Cleveland has been there and done that. The Guardians are, not unlike the Brewers, a very steadfast and reliable regular season team. Their weaknesses to not bode well for October — I might even pick Chicago head-to-head in a hypothetical series — but when it comes to stacking regular season wins, the Guardians' ability to grind on the base paths, defend across the diamond, and shut the water off with elite pitching is too potent a cocktail to ignore.
3. Seattle Mariners (AL West champs)
Why are the Mariners below .500 right now? Seattle is such a talented team on paper, but it has not clicked this season, for one reason or another. Their vaunted rotation has dramatically underperformed, especially away from home. Seattle is also in dire need of a second-half turnaround from Cal Raleigh, who drove so much of their success a year ago.
When it comes to projecting the last couple months of the season, however, the Mariners' ceiling rests head-and-shoulders above their AL West counterparts. The Rangers and Astros both have deep-rooted problems. If the Mariners' aces can lock in, the division is there for the taking.
4. Tampa Bay Rays
Even if the Rays don't win the division, Tampa has a clear path to October, with one of the easiest remaining strengths of schedules and a pitching staff that has exceeded expectations all season. Their lineup is top-heavy, and the lack of slugging is worrisome, but the Rays are quick, smart and relentless, with enough star power concentrated between Junior Caminero, Yandy Díaz and Jonathan Aranda to eventually give New York (and any other AL team) a run for its money.
5. Boston Red Sox
Boston was dead in the water a couple months ago. Lo and behold, the Red Sox are the hottest team in baseball as the second half gets underway. The pitching staff is battered and bruised, but Ranger Suárez continues to be a model of stability and poise, while their rolodex of impressive young arms, such as Payton Tolle, Jake Bennett and Connelly Early, has made the Red Sox uniquely capable of surviving turbulence.
The uncertainty around Roman Anthony's return is troubling, but if Jarren Duran and Caleb Durbin can sustain their recent turnarounds, Boston has enough firepower to continue its climb. With the rest of the American League standings in flux, it feels wise to bet on the team with forward momentum.
6. Chicago White Sox
The White Sox will need to overcome inexperience and an unreliable rotation, but it's hard to bet against a team with so much pure talent in their lineup. The benefit of Chicago's youth is that this team is still ascending. While the Guardians are the more proven and reliable team, the White Sox are plenty capable of slugging their way to a surprise victory or two come October. They play with so much joy and energy. Do not take them lightly, even as a sixth seed.
More MLB news and analysis:
Add us as a preferred source on Google