A common debate that I’ve had with league executives is how many $100+ million contracts will actually be handed out this winter.
Some say one. Others say two. Others say three. But what everyone can agree on is that this is a weaker-than-usual free agent class. The clear headliner is Los Angeles Dodgers superstar Tarik Skubal; after that, industry sources have a wide range of views as to how good this group is — and who should be considered the best non-Skubal target.
I've weighed in with my own take below. Here’s a look at the top 26 free agents of the coming winter, with educated guesses as to who will (and won't) opt out of their contracts in some cases.
1. LHP Tarik Skubal
Skubal is the consensus top free agent in the class, and the expectation is that just about all of the big-market teams will be bidding on the superstar left-hander. He should top the current record for a free-agent contract given to a starting pitcher, currently held by Yoshinobu Yamamoto at $325 million. One source predicted that Skubal could try to sign before the lockout to try and get ahead of CBA uncertainty, though his agent Scott Boras is known for waiting out the market.
2. OF Seiya Suzuki
Suzuki, 32, is one of the top bats on the market and has improved defensively in the corner outfield. He’s hit at least 20 home runs in four consecutive seasons, with a career-high 32 in 2025, and will have plenty of interest from offense-needy teams — with an early report already linking the slugger to the Toronto Blue Jays.
3. OF Randy Arozarena
Arozarena is Mr. Consistent. He’s posted six consecutive 20-20 seasons and he had a very strong contract year in 2026, hitting .281/.381/.484 with 26 home runs and 79 RBI. He’s earned a multi-year deal, one that eventually should top Teoscar Hernandez’s three-year, $66 million pact with the Dodgers.
4. 3B/OF Teruaki Sato (Hanshin Tigers)
Sato, 27, is hitting .315/.392/.620 with 37 home runs and 100 RBI this season in NPB. The third baseman/outfielder is the best power hitter on the market and is in the running to win the MVP award in Japan. It’s difficult to predict what he will ultimately sign for, especially after Munataki Murakami’s surprising free agency last year, but he will have a wide market of suitors.
5. LHP Trevor Rogers
Rogers, 28, has had an up-and-down tenure with the Orioles, from being traded to the franchise in 2024 to getting optioned to the Minors after posting a 7.11 ERA in four appearances. He then had a 1.81 ERA last season and has followed it up with a 4.03 ERA this year, though he once again finished strong with a 3.52 ERA in 79.1 innings in the second half.
6. RHP Freddy Peralta
It’s been a roller-coaster year for Peralta, who once seemed like a lock to sign a nine-figure contract but strugged enough with the Mets that a one-year deal seemed plausible, if not likely. Now, he’s bounced back with the Tampa Bay Rays, posting a 3.25 ERA in 10 starts, and one league source texted recently that he “will do just fine” in free agency. One additional note: Peralta is regarded as one of the best clubhouse guys in baseball. He is universally loved by every one of his teammates, past and present.
7. C Ryan Jeffers
At one point, Jeffers felt like a lock to be traded ahead of the Aug. 3 deadline, and he ultimately stayed with the Minnesota Twins. While he’s not the best defensive catcher in baseball, his offense more than makes up for it, and he hit .256/.353/.461 with an .814 OPS, 14 home runs and 56 RBI this season. With how many teams need catching, he seems primed to turn down the qualifying offer in favor of a multi-year deal this winter.
8. RHP Michael King
King is not technically a free agent, but we’ll put him here anyway. The 31-year-old has been tremendous for the Padres with a 3.21 ERA in 32 starts. There were concerns about his durability last winter, hence why he signed an opt out-heavy contract to return to San Diego (he had an in-division offer he strongly considered, too). And it should be noted that despite those concerns, his arm has relatively little wear and tear across eight Major League seasons (just 679.2 career innings).
9. 2B Brandon Lowe
I was talking on the phone with a high-ranking rival executive recently when Lowe’s name was brought up. “He’s a f***ing beast, bro.” He’s not wrong! Lowe hit 35 home runs with 96 RBI while slashing .260/.331/.493 in his first year in Pittsburgh. What’s been most noteworthy is his improvement defensively. He’s going to do very well in free agency, with plenty of teams eagerly awaiting the chance to sign the free-agent infielder.
10. LHP Adrian Morejon
Morejon was mentioned plenty at the trade deadline, but what was not mentioned much was that the Padres and A.J. Preller love the left-hander. They did not want to part with him and mess with their bullpen unless the offer was truly too good to pass up. A return to San Diego should not be ruled out. But a player with Morejon’s production (a 2.83 ERA in 76 appearances) while only being 27 years old will have an extensive market.
11. 2B Jazz Chisholm Jr.
Chisholm Jr. had a breakout season last year with the Yankees when he hit 31 home runs. His numbers have come down a bit in 2026, with the infielder hitting .231/.312/.399 with 19 home runs and 55 RBI. Still, he’s only 28 years old, younger than Suzuki and Arozarena, and has been to the postseason four years in a row. He’ll be one of the most talked-about free agents of the offseason, but the expectation I have from talking to folks across baseball is he’ll have a good market.
12. RHP David Bednar
For years, Bednar has been one of the best relievers in baseball. He was the subject of consistent trade interest with the Pirates, who ultimately traded him to the Yankees at the 2025 deadline. He’s been very good in the Bronx, with a 2.39 ERA in 86 games since being traded. He’s proven that he can pitch in the biggest of markets, which will only bolster his value. At only 31 years old, he’s primed for a lucrative multi-year contract.
13. OF Ian Happ
Happ, 31, has been one of the most consistent players in baseball across his 10-year career. He’s hit over 21 home runs in each of the last four seasons. His numbers this year declined, however, as he hit only .218/.326/.412 with 24 home runs and 68 RBI. He’s striking out more and his OPS+ finished at 103, noticeably lower than his career average of 114.
14. LHP Foster Griffin
Griffin was perhaps the steal of the offseason, with the Washington Nationals signing the left-hander for one year and $5.5 million. He posted a 3.06 ERA in 22 starts with the Nats and was eventually traded to the Guardians for multiple prospects at the deadline. He finished the year with a 3.60 ERA in 31 starts, and is in line for a multi-year contract this winter. He’s been a tremendous success story coming after coming back from pitching in Japan for three seasons.
15. 2B Luis Arraez
Arraez has always been one of the best hitters in baseball; his defense has been what has given teams hesitation. Those concerns are no more as he’s morphed into an above-average second baseman after working with Ron Washington in San Francisco. If healthy, he’ll have a real chance at a multi-year contract this offseason after slashing .310/.345/.419 with an .801 OPS.
16. RHP Sonny Gray
Gray is not technically a free agent, but he has a $30 million mutual option. Mutual options are never picked up, though, and if he becomes available, he will be heavily in demand — and a contract in the three-year, $75 million range would make plenty of sense. But he did recently tell Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com that he would retire “in a heartbeat” if his family indicated a desire for him to hang up his cleats. He clearly still has more in the tank, but this will be a situation to monitor that could affect the rest of the pitching market.
17. RHP Casey Mize
Mize, 29, appeared primed for a lucrative multi-year contract earlier this season when he had a 2.70 ERA in 16 starts with the Detroit Tigers. Since being traded to the San Diego Padres, he has a 7.46 ERA and a 25/19 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He could be a strong candidate for a short-term deal so he can have a better platform season and hit the market again after 2027 in hopes for a long-term contract.
18. LHP Robbie Ray
Ray, 34, is surely looking at a short-term contract at this stage of his career. He was consistent with the Giants, with a 3.54 ERA in 60 starts, but has struggled with the Padres to the tune of a 5.02 ERA (5.14 FIP). He’s proven durable the last couple seasons after missing significant time in 2023 and 2024 and can be a valuable innings-eater in the bottom half of the rotation. He won’t command top dollar, but any team who signs him will be very happy.
19. RHP Kevin Gausman
Parting with Gausman was very, very difficult for the Blue Jays. He’s been the model of consistency and durability, with the right-hander pitching at least 31 games in each season since 2021. His numbers declined this year, with a 4.51 ERA in 32 starts, though his 3.74 FIP paints a better picture. At 35 years old, he’s looking at a short-term contract. He’s still highly regarded in baseball circles and will have plenty of suitors.
20. RHP Clay Holmes
The amount of teams after Holmes at the trade deadline was massivem and had it not been for a failed physical involving a prospect, he would have been dealt to the Arizona Diamondbacks instead. He fits perfectly behind the Cubs’ elite infield defense, and considering that he is no longer eligible for the qualifying offer, his value has only increased. His market will once again be substantial.
21. OF Daulton Varsho
Varsho’s value comes with his defense in center field; he’s one of the best defenders in all of baseball. He showed growth offensively last season with the Blue Jays, with a career-high 121 OPS+. But he regressed this season, with a 76 OPS+ in 2026, including a 51 OPS+ in 41 games with the Houston Astros after being traded at the deadline.
22. INF JP Crawford
Crawford feels like a near-certainty to leave the Mariners in free agency. He’s been a mainstay in the infield the last eight seasons, with his best year coming in 2023 when he posted a 5.2 bWAR. His numbers dropped this season, as he slashed only .221/.335/.352 with a .687 OPS, 14 home runs and 40 RBI.
23. RHP Hiromi Itoh, Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters
Itoh, 29 in August, posted a 3.18 ERA in 172.2 innings. He has a seven-pitch arsenal and a fastball that touches 96 mph. He won the Sawamura Award in NPB, similar to the Cy Young Award, and teams have gotten a look at him in each of the last two World Baseball Classics.
24. RHP Dustin May
May, a former top prospect, has all the tools in his body. He has plenty of fans across baseball and there are some who believe he can still be a difference-maker atop a rotation — hence the Cardinals’ one year, $12.5 million contract for the right-hander in the offseason and the Milwaukee Brewers’ midseason trade for him. He’s since posted a 4.70 ERA in 31 starts, with a 3.63 FIP. A short-term contract once again feels likely for May.
25. OF Trent Grisham
Grisham, 29, accepted the qualifying offer last winter to stay with the Yankees for another season. While he broke out in 2025 with 34 home runs and 74 RBI, he came back down to earth with a .211/.308/.395 slash line with 18 home runs and 59 RBI this year. His 95 OPS+ puts him slightly below league-average this season. He feels like a candidate to once again sign a short-term deal in free agency.
26. 1B/OF Jake Bauers
Bauers has been a revelation in Milwaukee, and there is a real conversation to be had here about a potential qualifying offer. He’s hit .266/.389/.484 with 26 home runs and 86 RBI, and has emerged as a favorite of manager Pat Murphy, who recently noted that the slugger is being pitched to like one of the top hitters in baseball.
Honorable mentions: RHP Nick Martinez, C Carson Kelly, OF Taylor Ward, DH Joc Pederson, RHP Raisel Iglesias, OF/DH George Springer, RHP Jack Flaherty, RHP Tyler Mahle, LHP Kris Bubic,1B Ty France
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