It felt like the Los Angeles Dodgers were all but guaranteed another World Series title when they acquired Tarik Skubal at the trade deadline. Not only did they prevent Skubal from joining a contender like the Brewers, but they added Skubal to a rotation that already included Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow. Well, the Dodgers were swept in the NLCS by the same Brewers team that they swept just a year ago in the same round, and now, have to look ahead to the offseason.
Most of their core is locked up (whether that's a good thing or not can be debated), but the one key exception is Skubal, who is slated to hit free agency and search for a record-setting contract. There's a pretty good chance that Skubal is going to surpass Yamamoto's 12-year, $325 million deal - the richest for a pitcher in MLB history (excluding Shohei Ohtani, for obvious reasons). Will the Dodgers be the team that pays him, though? It's always possible, but I lean no. Here're a couple of reasons why.
Are we sure the Dodgers will be the high bidder for Tarik Skubal?
This comes down to the money. Tarik Skubal did not hire Scott Boras to represent him to take a hometown discount anywhere. If he did, he'd likely have stayed with the Detroit Tigers. Sure, the Dodgers being perennial contenders in Southern California likely gives them a tiebreaker if all else is equal, but are we sure the Dodgers will be eager to go to insane lengths to keep him around?
Even without Skubal, the Dodgers have a rotation featuring options like Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Shohei Ohtani, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Emmet Sheehan, Justin Wrobleski, and Roki Sasaki. That is already a group that's as good as any, and as deep as any, without them even making a single addition. Sure, they'd like to have Skubal back, but at what cost?
There will be desperate suitors out there. The New York Mets could use an ace and have Steve Cohen's money to work with, coming off a dismal year. The Toronto Blue Jays are another big-market team in need of pitching with the deep pockets to spend on anybody. The Chicago Cubs might be persuaded to spend on pitching, especially with the Brewers now World Series-bound. Maybe a team like the Philadelphia Phillies will be willing to spend on a super-rotation.
The Dodgers can outbid any of these teams, but will they have the desire to, especially given Mark Walter's recent financial troubles? I'm not sure, especially when considering what they've already invested in their roster.
Dodgers have already invested so much money into their roster
Even the Dodgers have limits. Whether there's a salary cap or not, the Dodgers will only do so much. Given the money they've tied up, are they really willing to spend $300 million or $400 million on Skubal?
Player | Contract | Age | Final Contract Year |
|---|---|---|---|
Shohei Ohtani | 10 years, $700 million (with $680 million deferred) | 32 | 2033 |
Mookie Betts | 12 years, $365 million | 34 | 2032 |
Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 12 years, $325 million | 28 | 2035 (opt-outs after '30, '32) |
Kyle Tucker | 4 years, $240 million | 29 | 2029 (opt-outs after '27, '28) |
Blake Snell | 5 years, $182 million | 33 | 2030 (club option) |
Freddie Freeman | 6 years, $162 million | 37 | 2027 |
Will Smith | 10 years, $140 million | 31 | 2033 |
Tyler Glasnow | 5 years, $136 million | 33 | 2028 (club option) |
Tommy Edman | 5 years, $74 million | 31 | 2030 (club option) |
Tanner Scott | 4 years, $72 million | 32 | 2028 |
Edwin Diaz | 3 years, $69 million | 32 | 2029 |
Teoscar Hernandez | 3 years, $66 million | 34 | 2028 (club option) |
The 2027 season hasn't even begun, yet the Dodgers already have a $393 million luxury tax payroll per Spotrac, the largest in the sport by nearly $50 million. Are they really going to be open to add more than $30 million annually to that, knowing they have other needs to address? I mean, their bullpen was shaky much of the year, and their lineup, clearly, has holes.
Again, even the Dodgers have limits. There's only a certain amount of money they'll be willing to invest. Adding another massive contract to this list feels like a lot to ask for, even for the Dodgers.
The last thing the Dodgers need is another bad contract on their hands
The Dodgers got the most out of the massive contracts they dolled out. Guys like Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith and Teoscar Hernandez played a major role in their back-to-back World Series wins. It's also worth noting that this foursome had the worst years of their careers and that they're all on the wrong side of 30. Father Time is undefeated, and while the beginnings of these massive contracts are always fun, the later years almost never are.
It's clear that guys like Betts and Freeman are well beyond their respective primes at this point, and while Freeman's contract is expiring after 2027, Betts is locked in for another six years. Smith is under contract for another seven years. Blake Snell can't stay healthy and he's locked in for at least three more years. Based on how he played this year, the Dodgers might be stuck handing Kyle Tucker $60 million annually for the next three years. Ohtani and Yamamoto are players who are still great when healthy, but eventually they'll age. There are bad contracts and the potential for bad contracts everywhere you turn on this Dodgers roster.
Again, giving these deals proved to be worthwhile, with the Dodgers earning back-to-back World Series wins, but there's a clear downside to handing out these insane long-term deals. Are the Dodgers willing to take on the risk with Skubal, who, by the way, had an elbow injury this season and has a pretty scary history of arm injuries?
The overarching takeaway from this series, beyond how good the Brewers looked, is how lethargic the Dodgers looked. They appeared completely overmatched at the plate, and that doesn't feel accidental given how old this roster is. Re-signing Skubal will be great for the short term but will almost certainly not age well. Given all the other bad deals on their roster, adding another one just doesn't feel like the smartest move, and Andrew Friedman is one of the smartest minds in the sport.
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